Film gone by the end of the decade?

<p><a href="http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=136795151">http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=136795151</a></p><div></div>

<p>The 21th of October ( this year ) is the revised date of the real end of the world, so...</p>

<p>Dang and I thought film was making a comeback.<br /> <a href="http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/retailandconsumer/8525839/Traditional-camera-film-makes-a-come-back.html">http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/retailandconsumer/8525839/Traditional-camera-film-makes-a-come-back.html</a></p>

<p>When I look at that chart it say US Camera Film Sales and not Worldwide Film Sales. Film will still be around for a lot longer than most think. I'll just keep shooting my film cameras and keep buying film and not worry about whether it disappears or not. I also shoot digital with my recently purchased Panasonic Lumix G1 so I'm also having fun with that.</p>

<p>I imagine film will still be around beyond 2020, but the major players like Kodak and Fuji may give up on it by then. Eventually film will die because eventually everything dies; when did you last see a fresh collodion wet plate?</p>

<p>The chart doesn't break out the decline by film format, nor does the story say anything to indicate whether some formats are falling faster than others. My guess is that 35mm is falling fastest as consumers and photojournalists switch to DSLRs, but 35mm also has the farthest to fall, having been the most popular format of the last half century or so. In the end, I think large format will be the last to go unless someone comes up with a high-quality, cost-effective 4x5" digital sensor.</p>

<p>The way to keep film in production is to<a href="../classic-cameras-forum/00YjtV"> increase hipster-ization.</a></p>

The thesis of the article is captured in one sentence:

 

"If I extrapolate the trend for film sales and retirements of film cameras, it looks like film will be mostly gone in the U.S. by the end of the decade."

 

But extrapolation is not a good guide to the future. Extrapolation would also suggest end the end of movies (theatres got new films twice a week in the 1940s), horseshoes, home sewing machines, and cloth diapers. Yet all of these are alive and well, albeit less common than they were 50 or 100 years ago.

 

What really matters is whether film is profitable overall for a company, including R&D costs. I'm sure there's very little R&D going on in film today. My guess is that film manufacturing is very profitable.

 

That said, there's something else going on that the article also suggests:

 

"Regular point-and-shoot adherents who haven't made the switch tend be poorer or older — 55 and up."

 

From time-to-time I read posts here about the popularity of film among the young, but the evidence I've seen is entirely anecdotal. Somebody saw two youngsters shooting film last weekend, etc.

 

So, it may turn out that even if film is profitable, there will come a day when so few people want to buy it that stores won't stock it. But that day is much further off than 9 years.

<p>Well, this isn't a particularly promising sign either...</p>

<p><a href="http://www.bhphotovideo.com/c/product/387950-REG/Kodak_50060_DP_24_Prepaid_Processing_Mailer.html">http://www.bhphotovideo.com/c/product/387950-REG/Kodak_50060_DP_24_Prepaid_Processing_Mailer.html</a></p>

<p>What am I going to do with the mint condition Canon ELPH 370Z I picked up for 50 cents last week? Stainless steel body, an ideal "hipster" camera. Maybe I should just pick up a roll of B&W APS film from the local supermarket and shoot a few frames?</p><div></div>

<p>I won't speculate about color film but I'll predict black and white will be around for a very long time. It is already a very low volume product -and has been for quite some time - and both the film and developer can readily be made in places with very low labor cost. Perhaps you won't buy it in stores, only online, and you might have to develop it yourself, but I'll wager it will still be here in 20 years.</p>

<p>Perhaps the title should have read "Commercial Film gone by the end of the decade". You can get pretty much anything if you look hard enough, even Daguerreotype supplies (<a href="http://www.newdags.com/making1.html">http://www.newdags.com/making2.html</a>), but you can't buy them from B&H and I hear mail order processing is next to impossible to find!</p>

<p>Anyone know where to buy a roll of Autochrome? <a href="http://www.autochromes.fr/english/def.html">http://www.autochromes.fr/english/def.html</a>. I hear it's still available...</p>

<p> Well film might go but I still have my photographs to enjoy. Besides there is always golf. </p>

<p>"THE END IS NEAR" Darnit !</p>

<p>Yes there is...</p><div></div>

<p>If you assign a numberical value from 1 to 26 to the letters of the alphabet and you add up Fuji, Kodak, Ilford, Agfa, Scotch, 3M and square the result, you'll find it is equal to the number of days from the date at which photography was invented to December 31st 2019. Unless my math is wrong...</p>

<p>Need I say more?</p>

<p>One can't help but to be somewhat saddened by the constant reminders of the world changing, but practicality and cost trumps nostalgia for most people. </p>

<p>Film will last another 20 years - at least black and white film will. After that I probably won't care, being too long-sighted or mentally addled to bother, at which point I shall bequeath my negatives and myself to a museum.</p>

<p>Only you would think of doing that, Bob. I mean that in a good way.</p>

<blockquote>

<p>Eventually film will die because eventually everything dies; when did you last see a fresh collodion wet plate?</p>

</blockquote>

<p>Last year. I know someone who does them at things like Civil War reenactments. All you need are chemicals that you could even get through "conventional" non-photographic channels if places like Bostik and Sullivan didn't exist, and scraps of glass from your local frame shop.</p>

<p>I just mentioned this already in another forum. Already, photographers are learning to make "old fashioned" B&W emulsions (think "Panatomic X" class, or maybe a bit slower, but usable) and coat glass plates, film, and paper. You see these "homebrew silver gelatin" discussions on APUG and DPUG. There's lots of suitable "film", one fellow was coating report covers, another was coating clear sheets made for drafting.</p>

<p>It only takes one or two people to run a little garage factory producing 35mm, 120, and 4x5 and 8x10 sheet.</p>

<p> I kind of figured that B/W film would always be with us until I walked into Bay Photo lab, Santa Cruz and they sent me packing with my B/W. They dropped processing it. It just seemed strange to me but I became a believer that the film days were numbered. Then my mail order lab lost 7 rolls of my film and then I kind of gave up for now. I thought well I still have a roll of film and went to the only place in my little town to get it processed so I could scan it and they quit on film as their machine broke and the cost was to much to repair it. I have been shooting my DSLR since then and just thinking about it. I do prefer film image quality but what can you do but adapt with the changing world. </p>

<p>First, as an old guy I don';t want things to change.<br>

Let me digress for a moment to say how disquieting things can be...<br>

I saw an ad for an ESCORT Radar detector integrated with a GPS.<br>

that does not jar me, it makes sense. But the next ad for a FOUR DOOR ? Samsung Refrigerator<br>

with a LCD Wi-Fi paned DOES. huh huh? crazy.<br>

Folks now using a 2-8 mp digital P&S find is cheaper to use.<br>

that a 20mp ( equiv) 35mm P&S. when it takes a week to see results.<br>

But gives permanent high quality results. Don't argue back that the ANY Digiocam<br>

also gives high quality results unless you rarely go beyond the 4 x 6 print.<br>

The any digicam gives nice acceptable results.<br>

( most 1 hour labs are long gone)<br>

OK OK so that are content never to make a print of the kids to show grandma.<br>

or some vacation photos. that is their choice.<br>

maybe they are just following the crowd.<br>

they can be sorry later. when those m,emories are long gone.<br>

BUT the prognosticators or Future see-ers are sometimes WRONG</p>

<p>I remember during WW2 when it was promised ALL the trained pilots would be flyong all over, everybody would have a airplane., not a car. Truth was ( a fact) many never or rarely flew even as a passenger.<br>

MANY felt they had "used up their 9 lives and refused to fly.<br>

Like Mike Sparrow at ITT who had 25 missions over germany.</p>

<p>and how about all the promises of processed nutrcous food pre-packaged.<br>

Here and now we have a huge natural food industry.<br>

ALL natural is a BIG catchword.<br>

the point of this is do not trust or believe what is predicted.<br>

the future may be far different than what is foretold.</p>

<p>I do not think we will see a NEW Kodachrome. or Kodak making reversal<br>

paper again. The big camera makers are "going where the money is"<br>

but there are enough film cameras around to keep us all shooting.<br>

I also don;t think that Film will come back,. or digital will suddenly decline.<br>

Digital; is still immature and has a lonmg way to go yet.<br>

the sensors are still very expensive,</p>

 

<p>I feel sorry for the people who work at those labs making film. What's going to happen to them ? You just can't train them to start making digital sensors, it's a whole other process.</p>

A couple of posts here have noted the demise of film PROCESSING and interchanged it with the demise of film. Film processing is labor intensive, even with a machine doing most of the work. For a mail-in lab, even the cost of maintaining the web site may become too high relative to the money made by processing.

 

Of all the fine-art photographers, lomographers, hipsters, and others enamored with film today, I wonder what percentage shoot B&W? My guess would be very high, maybe 90% or even higher. B&W film is easily processed at home. (I've done it myself!) At the Cherry Creek Art Festival, a huge juried show near Denver each year, I have met numerous film photographers showing their work, and none was shooting color.

 

Of that 90%, what percentage are then taking the film into digital by scanning? Again, probably very high, especially among the young, because if the image doesn't end up on Facebook, what's the use?

 

My point is that nobody shooting B&W film needs a processing lab, and that covers most serious film shooters.

 

But maybe one should buy a few of those film scanners while they're still available...

<p>I think the point at which you <em>have</em> to make your own emulsions using bits of glass salvaged from photo frames or plastic sheets from report covers is the point at which film can be officially pronounced to be dead, or as close to dead as makes no difference as far as most of the planet is concerned.</p>

<p>Home processing of B&W film is easy, so B&W film will be around well after color film has gone. However home processing moves film from a generally usable item to something only dedicated enthusiasts will be capable of using (assuming they constitute a large enough market for commercial film production to continue). I've probably processed no more than 1 or two rolls since I got my first DSLR which I think was around 1993.</p>

<p>I suppose in theory you could still make your own Koadachome and process it, but in my mind Kodachrome is dead. Perhaps Zombie Kodachrome exists in someone's basement, but it doesn't count. It exists in storage in my freezer, but that's archeology, not photography, at least until I finally clean out the freezer.</p>

<p>If they stopped making cars I guess you could weld up your own chassis from bits of discarded scarp iron and fit it with the engine and wheels from your lawnmower, but it just wouldn't be the same...</p>

<p>What about sales of film? It's better than 2 years ago! Don't forget there are hundreds of millions of analog cameras in the world. The better ones can be serviced or revitalized. </p>

<p>Fuji hit the market with two new rangefinders. Would such a company develop new and unique analog cameras if they wouldn't see a future for film?</p>

<p>OK, analog cameras are only a minority in commercial and professional use these days, but I don't worry at all. Kodak just made a statement that they even guarantee the production of 8x10" film for the next 4 years.</p>

<p>The development doesn't scare me at all. Just recently I went into an art supply store in Germany and didn't trust my eyes: the product range was wider than ever before.</p>

<p>Same situation will emerge in the film biz. Film will be used by truly masters, craftsmen, artists, professionals. The rest with the digicams will face a severe 'rub off' sooner or later. The history will repeat itself: look back to video. Video killed film. They started naming the cameras 'professional'. Where is video today? Drop dead. But people with an Arri or Panaflex still shoot documentaries in high quality.</p>

<p>Last but not least someone has to feed the movie cameras in Bollywood (India). The suppliers are Kodak and Fuji.</p>

<p>Back to analog cameras. Toyo, Shen Hao, Dayi, Gaorsi, Ebony, Linhof, Arca Swiss, Sinar, Silvestri, Gottschaldt, Plaubel, Fuji, Canham, Alpa, Horseman and several more still make analog cameras. It is a very profitable business for them. The demand is higher than expected, forcing you to wait for your Arca or Ebony camera. Nothing off the shelf, just custom order.</p>

<p>Who will feed these cameras? Fuji (color and b&w), Kodak (color and b&w) and some smaller film manufacturers (b&w).</p>

<p>Do you think people would invest into new cameras if they knew they wouldn't be able to feed them with film anymore? </p>

<p>I am currently considering to step up to even larger format for quality reasons, customer satisfaction, fun factor, precision. Because I know film will be available for a very long time, and because I know the pendulum will swing back for some people, mainly customers who value precision and high quality.</p>

<p>I am one of the few professional photographers who still shoots film. Exclusively. I don't want to feed the Japanese trolls who come up with a new camera or sensor every 4 or 6 months, always telling us that digital now beats film (they kept telling the masses for years without ever fulfilling their promises.</p>

<p>How come Hollywood is never mentioned in these "demise of film" discussions?</p>

<p>Hollywood uses a ton of film. I keep seeing Panavision camera's and Kodak film still being listed in the credits of current movies.</p>

<p>Even if the movie was shot directly in digital, a roll of film/celluloid print is still required for theater projection.</p>

<blockquote>

<p>What about sales of film? It's better than 2 years ago! </p>

</blockquote>

<p>Can you provide a citation on this pleas.</p>