Digital camera sales continue to decline

[bobatkins]

<p>Not that it's much of a surprise, but see http://www.cipa.jp/stats/documents/e/dw-201412_e.pdf</p>

[MichaelChang]

<p>I actually find the rate of decline over a span of 36 months shocking.</p>

<p>The hot item over Christmas 2014 seems to have been low cost tablets and convertible laptops that might partly explain the decline, but still. </p>

 

[ken_jeanette1]

<p>Serious photography was always a relatively small hobby IMO. Most families wanted to take snapshots. Even if they invested in a higher level camera, they were basically trying to improve the holiday/birthday/celebration snapshots. A minor percentage of that group became fascinated, and tried to make more artful pictures. Tablets and phones give very reasonable quality snapshots. They are available to share with friends and family seconds after the image is captured. It's no wonder to me that the specialized instrument for producing snapshots has become unnecessary. </p>

[AJG]

<p>In some ways, this isn't that surprising. First, the curve of technological improvement is leveling off. Ten years ago, a new model DSLR represented significant improvements in resolution, noise reduction, etc. and there was enough of a difference that professionals and serious amateurs felt the need to upgrade. My current workhorse DSLRs (2 Pentax K5s) were purchased nearly three years ago, and while I know I will replace them eventually, I'm not feeling compelled to upgrade because of a huge quality improvement with a newer model. Second, cell phone cameras have improved drastically from earlier models and they are the cameras that most people will have with them most of the time. Their image quality won't equal a good DSLR, but on Facebook it will look fine for most people. Third, many national economies aren't doing well, and the choice between food and a new camera won't be that hard for most people.<br>

It would be interesting to see the same information for lens sales for DSLRs and MILCs--I suspect there are a lot of people like me who might be continuing with the same bodies but adding lenses where needed, or upgrading from kit lenses. If lens sales are falling just as drastically, then I would expect to see some more consolidation in the photo industry.</p>

[geoffs1]

<p>I agree with Andrew, the improvement curve is dropping off. I regularly use a nine year old 20D and a 1Dmk2n (both 8Mpix). Until it died last fall, my 40D still got a lot of use. I admit that most of my photos were taken with my 7D, but I would guess not more than 50%.<br>

<br />I'm looking at a 7D2 not for any sensor improvements, but almost exclusively for the better AF.</p>

[Brad_]

I also don't find the numbers surprising.

 

It's a combination of cellphone cameras being good enough, or even more desirable than larger digital

cameras for making casual photographs (I'm in that camp). And, that recently manufactured fixed and

interchangeable lens digital cameras have become so good, that for many, frequent upgrades are not necessary.

[bobatkins]

<p>MILC sales show some growth in revenue everywhere but in Japan for some reason. Maybe the market there has saturated. MILC growth is good news for Sony, but not for Canon (or Nikon) who are barely in that market at all. Though the sales revenue has gone up, the actual sales volume has dropped in some markets. World wide the number of units shipped is just about the same as last year (DSLRs are down 25%).</p>

<p>Despite falling sales, sales volume and revenue from DSLRs is still about 3.5x more than from MILCs (worldwide) and built-in lens cameras outsell MILCs by about 10:1.</p>

<p>I haven't seen data relating to lens sales. Not sure if CIPA ever publish that. I assume the trend would probably correlate fairly well with the trend in DSLR sales.</p>

<p>See http://www.cipa.jp/stats/documents/e/d-2014_e.pdf</p>

[ilkka_nissila]

<p>I think with the advent of inexpensive DSLRs, a lot of people who didn't have photography backgrounds got excited about it and got cameras and lenses but after a few years quite a large percentage of them haven't really continued with the hobby. Thus it is not surprising that when the technology has matured as it has, mostly only those of us who have a long term committment to photography are continuing to make images passionately and also look for technological improvements as well as learning how to make better images. I don't think it was realistic to expect that growth in camera and lens sales would continue indefinitely. Worldwide recession further reduces sales of unnecessary items. I just hope the industry can adopt to changing conditions in the market and mostly stay alive even though at much reduced production levels that are long term sustainable (maybe at 1/10 of the 2012 peak level or a bit less?).</p>

[c_watson1]

<p>Thom Hogan's views on this trend and its background are worth a look:</p>

<p>http://www.dslrbodies.com/newsviews/the-numbers-are-in.html</p>

[gungajim]

<p>Good stuff. Thanks to all who contributed. </p>

[gungajim]

<p>The camera and lens sales graphs looks a bit like a website traffic graph for PN over the past 3 years :-)</p>

[lex_jenkins]

<p>Doesn't surprise me. For my personal use with candid people photography I hit the point of diminishing returns with the better 10 megapickle 1/1.7" and CX/one-inch sensor digicams. Those cameras at ISO 200-800 can equal my Tri-X photos in 11x14 prints. The only significant difference is in depth of field.</p>

<p>Now that some phone cameras can equal that image quality, the only incentive for choosing a camera is for the quickness and ergonomics. I'm still more comfortable with a well designed camera. I tend to blur about half the photos I take with phone cams because the ergonomics feel awkward. Once a phone cam equals the better P&S digicams in handling, quickness and auto flash, that'll pretty much be the end of the market for teensy sensor cameras. Even the CX/one-inch sensor digicam faces serious competition from phone cams.</p>

<p>There are a few scenarios where I prefer the 16 megapickle APS format, but the very affordable Fuji X-A1 handles that well enough for me.</p>

<p>I can see a full frame camera of some sort in my future, but it probably won't be a dSLR. It would need to be no larger or heavier than the Sony A7, but as quick as my Nikon V1. Maybe in a few years. I'd like it, but I don't need it, not enough to compromise or spend too much.</p>

<p>I've never been on the bleeding edge of tech consumerism, but if my attitude toward the current field of camera equipment is representative of a significant demographic, the traditional camera makers must be tearing out their hair.</p>

[Landrum Kelly]

<p>Shooting with Big Old DSLRs definitely requires a commitment in this Age of Convenience.</p>

<p>Shooting with Big Old Film SLRs takes even more.</p>

<p>--Lannie</p>

[aplumpton]

<p>Lannie and Lex make good points, but a part of making images for me is the craft and pleasure of working with and personally controlling all the variables of focus, framing and exposure consistent with my approach to a subject. It may not suffice for the mass market of photography or other convenience imaging or even certain serious photography conditions where higher speed of interaction is required, but give me the possibility of a fully manual camera with the latest sensor technology and I am happy. Although I mostly reject the multiple automation characteristics of the lighter mirrorless cameras those with a high degree of manual control options seem to be the future of creative photography, with their increasing sales (normal for any fairly new kids on the block) and I think prospects.</p>

[Robin Smith]

<p>Yes the situation is returning to a more "normal" situation similar to in the pre-digital world. The happy times are over for camera manufacturers, but the happy times clearly could not last. This situation will happen to phones too one day, but not quite yet. </p>

[m_tt_donuts]

<p>For me some part was the release of Windows 8, I don't think anything in history has made me want to put my computer away more and if I take pictures, I need to download them to my computer and use Win8 which is always a frustrating experience. Instead of getting use to Win8 over time I find more and more things that frustrate me endlessly about it.</p>

<p>I don't know how much Win8 affected others, I used to use my computer a lot more beforehand and now I'd rather put a pencil in my eye. Taking pictures means I have to use Win8 and my disdain of using it has affected me having fun and experimenting with my camera, taking it out, and enjoying it since I need to use Win8 and download them. I know what the answer is (a computer with Win7, Apple is out of the question) but I've gotten used to my nights watching a movie instead of editing pictures thanks to Win8.</p>

[David_Cavan]

<p>Lots of good comments here, and there's no doubt that sales of the DSLR has been impacted on all sides by other more portable and popular solutions. As perhaps it should have been, because many bought DSLRs for all the wrong reasons, and phones/tablets are much more portable, providing enough capability for many people.</p>

<p>The chart linked by the OP shows things a certain way, as do all charts. I reworked the data, and found the 2014 trend interesting, and if I was in the marketing department at Canon or Nikon camera divisions I'd be puzzling through what the data means. Is this a real levelling out of the drop, or just a dead-cat bounce?</p>

[pmind]

<p>Not too surprising really...but how is the used market faring? We have reached a point where the technological level of a camera made 5+ years ago is more than adequate for someone interested in pursuing photography as a serious hobby. I recently sold a Canon 5D Mk I to a serious amateur who was very happy with the quality of the images it produced (as compared to their then-current 10D). I wonder how similar graphs of historical film camera sales might look in comparison. Then, of course, there are smartphones.</p>

[bobatkins]

<p>I've heard Microsoft blamed for a lot of things but I think this may be the first time I've heard them blamed for the decline of camera sales! My understanding of Windows 8 is that it's just about nobody's favorite OS. When I bought my latest PC, I made sure that it came with Windows 7 pro. It came with the "upgrade" disks for Windows 8 which I don't think will ever be used!</p>

<p>You can downgrade Windows 8 pro to windows 7 (it's part of the Windows 8 pro package), but it's a pain to do. However Microsoft are offering a free upgrade to Windows 10 for most Windows 7/8 users (enterprise editions are excluded. It will be free for 1 year after it's officially launched, and an upgrade of the OS is easier than a downgrade.</p>

<p>However I have my doubts as to whether that will help camera sales...</p>

<p>I think declining sales are mostly due to a change in the culture of most entry level camera users who have been raised on camera phones, instagrams and selfies. They don't need a camera to shoot what they typically shoot. They have a camera phone. That kills off sales of small digicams and so kills off one upgrade path to DSLRs and other more advanced cameras. Moving from a digicam to an SLR was an easier step than moving from a camera phone (which to always carry with you anyway) to hauling a round a second piece of equipment which is 10x or more the size and weight.</p>

<p>I'm not sure that maturing technology is a big factor, though I'm sure it plays a part. It hasn't hurt sales of cars or TVs or computers to a great extent. Sales of those aren't falling by 25% each year. There's always a desire for something better, even if you don't need it and even if "better" isn't really all that much better.</p>

 

[jim_service]

<p>Here's my opinion..<br>

Back in the late '60's the first quality low cost TTL SLR's came out and the amateurs snapped them up. But within a couple years every swinger in a leisure suit had one because, I suppose, they were "supposed to". A fad. They had one lens for it, a 55mm f1.4, and made 3x5 snapshots. They were Instamatic people to the bone and never learned how to use the camera beyond some basic auto mode. Inevitably the fad died out.<br>

The same thing happened when DSLR's came out, got better and got cheaper. The fad happened again and got extended by the excitement over the rapid advances. Now the fad is slowing down.<br>

The point I'm making is that the sales figures never should have been that high to begin with, that camera execs know that most of the cameras were bought as a fashion statement, that these fads do not last, and have in place the financial plans to deal with its demise.<br>

'Ya think?</p>

[Robin Smith]

<p>I don't like Windows 8, but I agree with Bob, the idea that it prevents me taking pics is risible: it's not that bad. My beef is I don't get the "revolutionary" concept behind it and why it needed such rearrangement, but then I feel the same about Windows 7 too. Of course they did it to go for the tablet market, so it's cumbersome for regular PCs. At least I get zero crashes with Windows 8 and it runs very well.</p>

<p>David: I think your chart still shows a profound drop with only a blip of increase through 2014. I would not be planning for any increase in sales myself apart from the obvious new sales of the new cameras (e.g. 5DS in Canon's case) matched by an equal or greater decline in "old cameras" (e.g. 5DIII) sales.</p>

[David_Cavan]

<p>Robin - I agree that the decline has been precipitous for many quarters, but there is an increase over the past four quarters, the first time that's happened since 2011/12. What's going to be interesting is whether there is a continued increase Q1 and Q2 of 2015. Only time will tell. If so, then I think the vendors will have figured out the current state of the market.</p>

[c_watson1]

<p>"...<em>but there is an increase over the past four quarters, the first time that's happened since 2011/12. What's going to be interesting is whether there is a continued increase Q1 and Q2 of 2015. Only time will tell. If so, then I think the vendors will have figured out the current state of the market."</em><br>

<em> </em><br>

<em><br /></em>You might change your mind after a look at Nikon's recent 3rd quarter results:</p>

<p>http://www.dslrbodies.com/newsviews/nikon-third-quarter-financi.html</p>

[c_watson1]

<p><em>The hot item over Christmas 2014 seems to have been low cost tablets and convertible laptops that might partly explain the decline, but still.</em><br>

<em> </em><br>

<em><br /></em>Never mind the line-ups to buy GoPro kits and accessories anyplace that sold imaging gear over the holidays. That's the demographic that's all but lost to photography as most around here understand it. That also goes a long way to explain the malaise among major camera makers. I rarely saw many--if any--under 35-40 looking at prosumer/pro gear anywhere over Christmas. Even entry level DSLRs were lonely.</p>

<p>DSLRs really don't allow image sharing without a PC--precisely what smart phones do so well. Until that gets sorted, along with a useful degree of in-camera image editing, DSLRs sales will only go one way.</p>

[David_Cavan]

<blockquote>

<p>You might change your mind after a look at Nikon's recent 3rd quarter results:</p>

</blockquote>

<p>Interesting - there are statistics, and outright lies of course. Hard to say which is what. The OP's graph shows overall sales (all companies) holding steady from the previous quarter, so if that is true then indeed Nikon is suffering. </p>

<p>Regardless, I'm not caring that much. I have all the cameras I need for some time to come.</p>