Oh no film is dead....yet again.

[lwg]

<p>Sure film is declining, but it will settle out at some level. The question is can Kodak make a profit at the new normal level? I think we're near the bottom, and they could make a profit. But it looks like the rest of the mismanagement will kill Kodak before we get to find out.</p>

[doug_harl]

<p>I give up.</p>

<p>I was discussing with a "friend", Ph.D. about explaining complex economic concepts to people (general populace) and she said, "Why waste your time with <em>those</em> people."<br>

I'm beginning to understand what she meant and I understand I'm an idiot.</p>

<p>Long live film!</p>

<p>It'll be around forever!!!!</p>

[doug_harl]

<p>I apologize to everyone about:</p>

<blockquote>

<p>"I was discussing with a "friend", Ph.D. about explaining complex economic concepts to people (general populace) and she said, "Why waste your time with <em>those</em> people."</p>

</blockquote>

<p>I'm doing my best not to hold that opinion - or at least, to be honest, I'm trying not to be that arrogant. (I do hear that time and again, btw).</p>

<p>You're right to be incredulous about any statements that are that encompassing about anything.<br>

It's just really hard when you see something so obvious staring you in that face, and then professionals starting to say the same, to hear folks poo-poo what you have to say - even though you have the numbers and product history on your side. I mean, how many Kodak discontinuances have we dealt with in the last year alone? </p>

<p>I don't know what Kodak's playing at or what they have in store for film, but the future is obviously grim. And if they are going to continue with their digital goals and profitability, I just don't see where film fits into that. Not for Kodak.</p>

<p> </p>

[william_roberts4]

<p>Well I have learned something about dealing with Ph.D.'s in the engineering field. They all have great book knowledge but most lack actual real skills. So, I take it with a grain of salt, when they talk down to me or other people. <br>

This same discussion sounds just like the CD vs Vinyl war/discussions in the late 80's. Everyone said that vinyl was going to be gone for good by the end of the 80's... then it was the end of the 90's. Granted that the sales of vinyl are not close to what they were, but there is still new vinyl being produced. Now, look at the CD, it is getting killed by digital.<br>

I think that film will end up like vinyl, maybe Kodak will abandon it. BUT, as long as there are people out there wanting film, there will be a way to get it. There will always be a group of young people that want to experience what other generations had. <br>

And I am not so convinced that the Kodak situation is not a case of self-inflicted wounds by a poorly managed company. <br>

So I guess I will just go out and buy a chest freezer and just fill it full of film..that should last me....</p>

 

[jeff_livacich]

<p>Doug,<br>

<br /> I know that film continues to decline. But to cite the 98% drop in profit does not mean that sales dropped by 98%.<br /> Otherwise, what did the $15 million dollar 3Q 2011 profit vs. the 1Q + 2Q 2011 loss of $13 million mean? That film is on the rise again, making more in one quarter than it lost in two?</p>

<p>I'm saying that your example is not the proof you put it forward to be. Using your reasoning, the bigger decline and actual losses in the same period in the other two groups make them even less viable.</p>

<p>Where film has fit in so far has been as the cash cow they have been milking to sustain their unprofitable enterprises.<br /> I'm not knocking the strategy of using film to finance the transition to digital. They could not tell their shareholders years ago that they were going to remain a film company only, and tough about the loss of share value which would result from becoming much smaller. But Kodak badly flubbed it. They have lost huge amounts of money trying to achieve the transition, and as a result would be much healthier if they <em>had</em> decided to not try.<br>

<br /> Where does film fit in? So long as they can make money at it, why doesn't it? Why is it necessary for Kodak to present itself as all digital? Certainly Kodak could have sold it off already if the transition had succeeded the way it should have, but so far without film they have no sustained profit at all.</p>

[personal screen]

<p>Well, I'm an engineer and a PhD... I do not know if I lack skills, but I hope I can read numbers. <br>

Decline in sales is stated in the same pg. 26, a bit above. Last quarter from 433 down to 389, nine months from 1,152 down to 1,323, i.e -10% and -13% respectively. Despite this, film share grew from 25% to 27% of the total sales. Only "graphic communication group" has growing sales figures.<br>

Getting back to an all film company, however, means throwing away nearly three quarter of the sales value, and wait for further reduction. Does not seem so nice for shareholders (and employees...).<br>

Maybe Fuji is showing some different strategy?</p>

 

[david_pickard]

<p>Let me clarify my comment about the need to make film cameras for film to have a better chance. I don't see any film cameras at stores. These companies that say they make cameras don't put them in most stores and some are professional only. The best way to increase film sales is with new camera sales. Volume of film users requires more cameras on shelves. Also, those of use with cameras need replacements.</p>

[andylynn]

I was thinking about this, and if I were in charge at Kodak here is what I think I would do with the film department.

First, put still image film in its own department. Then, make that department like Apple - concentrate Kodak's own

production on what it's good at, which is the film, and think of it as part of an "ecosystem." Those other things that

Koodak would need to supply, outsource. So contract with Cosina and whoever owns Vivitar now and maybe Foxconn

because they can make anything cheaply to make a line of consumer level cameras - point and shoots, and consumer

level SLRs, in somebody else's mount.

 

Contract with Amazon to set up a Kodak section that sells film, cameras and custom mailers. What are the gripes you

hear about working with film now? Can't get good processing, can't get good scans affordably. Kodak sells all that

equipment so either contract with Dwaynes or set up their own lab. Film mailers would be ordered with custom options

- check for prints, CDs, CDs at high resolution, etc., and the mailer either gets sent to you or printed out on your printer

as an order form and a shipping label. Make this service affordable. They can have their existing minilab products

make great high res scans quickly if the operators know what they're doing, so get it right and there's no reason to

charge more than a few dollars. Make an online gallery that links from the customer's Amazon account and let's them

order large prints.

 

If they were serious about it, they could get all the steps covered, with minimal investment. Then market the damned

thing. Advertise how great they can make your portrait shots come out. Sell kits you can give your grandparents, with a

simple camera, film and mailers for prints, and have reorder forms sent to them by snail mail. Advertise it for vacations

- drop the mailer in a mailbox wherever, prints are waiting at your house when you get back.

 

All the resources are already in place, they might as well try to use them.

[mauro_franic]

<p>I agree with Andy's plan although I would add a scanner offering with seamless integration to Kodak's films (a la Apple as well). I would probably outsource the scanner's production to concentrate on film and even try to obtain the Coolscan's IP to manufacture it under Nikon's license (adding 4x5 support and expanding the resolution to 6,000 dpi for medium format).</p>

<p>I just developed a batch from this fall with TMAX and I can tell you it will never be dead. Fall's colors look best in black and white....<br>

http://shutterclick.smugmug.com/Photography/Only-TMAX/15377450_PJTRpm#!i=1662584212&k=CvBgw7B&lb=1&s=X2</p>

<p> </p><div></div>

[andylynn]

<p>Mauro, nice shot. Looking at full res - is that 35mm? The detail is fantastic.</p>

[mauro_franic]

<p>Thank you. It is very soothing. It is a crop of 120 with the Mamiya 7 II.</p>

[andylynn]

Oh, that certainly explains the detail.

[jbirdweb]

<p>Andy,<br>

To your point "What are the gripes you hear about working with film now? Can't get good processing, can't get good scans affordably"<br>

I disagree in part with this. There are still some film labs out there that do excellent work.<br>

I use a lab in North Carolina, their color corrections are dead on and the film that I have processed there is always well processed. The problems we encounter is that with the decreased use of film the principles of photographic quality control are no longer being taught. i.e. proper ph, proper replenishment, correct chemical mixing procedures, how to run, read and plot test strips, how to correct an "out of control" process. How to run and read a "ringaround" on a color photo printer. When I worked QC in a large lab in the '80s most of the QC techs I encountered didn't know some of this stuff, so why would we think they would know it now.<br>

I always ask to see copies of control charts when I can or have them print a test neg for me.<br>

If your lab is unwilling to this or if they say we don't keep control charts Run for the exit and keep looking. Of course if you don't know how to read a control chart, then your best bet is to send in a test roll.<br>

Finally. I do not see Kodak re-opening any kind of processing facility with their current executives. Perez flat could care less about the company and that is quite obvious. Like most CEO's that have no direct ties to the company other than being the chief executive all he is interested in is getting his and getting out.</p>

[eddy_d]

<p>What camera companies need to do, if it is at all possible, Make a camera that shoots both fim and digital then we would have even sides to the playing field.</p>

[a_petkov]

<p><strong>My prediction is that film will outlast the plastic digital camera you have and your memory cards.</strong><br>

<em>(Bold added by me.)</em></p>