Are DSLRs doomed? Tony Northrup says no.

Chelsea and Tony Northrup recently published a Picture This! podcast that discusses the future of DSLRs versus mirrorless. Tony thinks the long-term future of mirrorless is not nearly as rosy as many think. The general decline in DSL photograpy vs. cell phone photography makes the switch to mirrorless increasingly difficult for manufacturers to sustain. On the other hand, the enormous number of DSLR bodies already in use makes investments in lenses and accessories for the DSLR market financially viable.

 

I don't have the inclination to watch the video, but I do agree that DSLRs will always be around as a niche product. The reasoning you describe does not seem logical, as the same argument could be made for most legacy technologies. If you acknowledge the technological superiority of mirrorless systems in every sensor class, medium format included, you would not bet on DSLRs.

 

My prediction in the medium to long term is that there will be more 35mm SLRs in use than DSLRs. Controversial? Yes, but 25 years ago it was controversial to claim that digital would dominate the market.

70 years ago, I doubt anyone seriously believed that 35mm SLR cameras would become the industry standard, surely if you were shooting fast, documentary work, you needed a rangefinder, landscapes? Large format. Press work? Graflex or some other "press camera".

 

I think production economies will be the end of mirror based SLR systems, but it'll take a while.

On the other hand, the enormous number of DSLR bodies already in use makes investments in lenses and accessories for the DSLR market financially viable.

This is uninformed at best, misleading at worst, perhaps projection in between. How many SLRs (film) still exist, and what are they worth today? Mine aren't going to a landfill any time soon, but they don't see much daylight either.

 

My first FF camera, a Nikon D3 is now over 10 years since its introduction. Still useful, it is tactically out of date - 12 MP, limited high ISO functionality. With video capability increasingly important to journalism, travel, and documentation, DSLRs are kludges compared to even the most elementary MILC.

 

People will always cling to obsolete technology. Vinyl discs are still around, thirty years into the digital age, as is film. People subscribe to boutique technology not for it's quality and accuracy, rather its lack thereof. They distort in a manner some people find pleasing - vinyl with a 30 db S/N ratio (I'm being generous) and abundant 3rd harmonic distortion, film with exaggerated (or non existent) colors, grain, and high cost.

I really don't get the mirrorless hype or the popularity. Claimed advantages - smaller, lighter, inherent lower cost - evaporate on closer examination. Smaller and lighter disappear when you need to add adapters and extra batteries to compensate for higher battery drain. Lower cost hasn't materialized yet. Drawbacks galore: harder to track fast moving subjects, limited lens choices if you don't want to use adapters, and - in my opinion the major issue - sensor heating resulting in increased noise, dynamic range degradation and color inaccuracies, not to mention forced camera shutdowns. Image quality degradation caused by sensor heating is largely ignored by the industry. Two months ago I asked DxOmark if they were or were going to test for image quality degradation and the reply was "Your question has been forward to one of our team experts. We'll get back to you as soon as possible." I'm still waiting. Others I asked about the issue took the fifth.

On the other hand, the enormous number of DSLR bodies already in use makes investments in lenses and accessories for the DSLR market financially viable.

 

Yeah, just like the enormous number of film cameras out there justifies big time investments in film?

 

These situations provide a "niche" market.

 

Of course, all things pass away, but some slower than others.

I really don't get the mirrorless hype or the popularity. Claimed advantages - smaller, lighter, inherent lower cost - evaporate on closer examination. Smaller and lighter disappear when you need to add adapters and extra batteries to compensate for higher battery drain. Lower cost hasn't materialized yet. Drawbacks galore: harder to track fast moving subjects, limited lens choices if you don't want to use adapters, and - in my opinion the major issue - sensor heating resulting in increased noise, dynamic range degradation and color inaccuracies, not to mention forced camera shutdowns. Image quality degradation caused by sensor heating is largely ignored by the industry. Two months ago I asked DxOmark if they were or were going to test for image quality degradation and the reply was "Your question has been forward to one of our team experts. We'll get back to you as soon as possible." I'm still waiting. Others I asked about the issue took the fifth.

 

What are you talking about? I own a Nikon DSLR kit and Fuji mirrorless. The Fuji kit is clearly smaller and lighter, and so were Sony and Olympus options I’ve used. A couple extra batteries in the bag hardly adds anything to the travel weight, and at no time have I noticed an overheating sensor causing image quality loss on either system - that one doesn’t make any sense at all. Whichever intern at DXO answers emails from random pixologists probably sent you a canned response then hit the junk filter.

"Claimed advantages - smaller, lighter, inherent lower cost - evaporate on closer examination. Smaller and lighter disappear when you need to add adapters and extra batteries to compensate for higher battery drain."

 

I have both types and the Fuji, Penny, and Ricoh all weigh much less with a smaller footprint from the DSLRs. Then again, I don't adopt heavy Nikon lenses to the Fuji or the Panny, but do use Leica, again, much smaller footprint and lower weight. If you put something like a Nikon 70-200 2.8, it really doesn't matter much as to what body really. But its not something I'd ever do. Good point re more battery's but an extra battery or 2 is no big deal over-all.

What are you talking about? I own a Nikon DSLR kit and Fuji mirrorless. The Fuji kit is clearly smaller and lighter, and so were Sony and Olympus options I’ve used. A couple extra batteries in the bag hardly adds anything to the travel weight, and at no time have I noticed an overheating sensor causing image quality loss on either system - that one doesn’t make any sense at all. Whichever intern at DXO answers emails from random pixologists probably sent you a canned response then hit the junk filter.

 

"Claimed advantages - smaller, lighter, inherent lower cost - evaporate on closer examination. Smaller and lighter disappear when you need to add adapters and extra batteries to compensate for higher battery drain."

 

I have both types and the Fuji, Penny, and Ricoh all weigh much less with a smaller footprint from the DSLRs. Then again, I don't adopt heavy Nikon lenses to the Fuji or the Panny, but do use Leica, again, much smaller footprint and lower weight. If you put something like a Nikon 70-200 2.8, it really doesn't matter much as to what body really. But its not something I'd ever do. Good point re more battery's but an extra battery or 2 is no big deal over-all.

 

A FF/FX mirrorless camera is smaller/lighter than a dSLR, but is the lens any smaller? FF is FF no mater the size of the camera.

m4/3 or APS-C vs. FF is a different matter, in general the lenses are smaller than FF.

 

As for mirrorless battery. To me, that is a MAJOR issue. My D7200 dSLR will go 2 DAYS on a charge. My Olympus EM1-mk1 will go only 4 HOURS (continuous). That means, on vacation, three to four batteries in a day, and charging up to four batteries at night. This becomes a logistical issue when traveling; four chargers or two charger and charge in two shifts. So it isn't just another battery in the camera bag.

And I did use three batteries a day, and had to charge three batteries every night.

Much ado about nothing? At the end of the day, it's the quality of the image that matters, not the device used to create it. Which has as much to do with the skill of the photographer as it does with the type of camera. Having said that, I still believe that cell phone image quality is nowhere close to the quality of DSLR images, mirrorless or not. That may change, someday, but at my age, I doubt that I will see it. Just sayin'.

it's the quality of the image that matters, not the device used to create it.

 

smart phone.

The quality of image is about the creativity of the photographer; not the lump of metal/glass and plastic used to take the photograph.

I went to my Granddaughters school play last week and there were hundreds of parents out there. Not a single regular camera among them.

As much as I find a smart phone very useful....I still like a camera in my hand.

I really don't get the mirrorless hype or the popularity. Claimed advantages - smaller, lighter, inherent lower cost - evaporate on closer examination. Smaller and lighter disappear when you need to add adapters and extra batteries to compensate for higher battery drain. Lower cost hasn't materialized yet. Drawbacks galore: harder to track fast moving subjects, limited lens choices if you don't want to use adapters, and - in my opinion the major issue - sensor heating resulting in increased noise, dynamic range degradation and color inaccuracies, not to mention forced camera shutdowns. Image quality degradation caused by sensor heating is largely ignored by the industry. Two months ago I asked DxOmark if they were or were going to test for image quality degradation and the reply was "Your question has been forward to one of our team experts. We'll get back to you as soon as possible." I'm still waiting. Others I asked about the issue took the fifth.

MILCs are in fact smaller, and lighter than comparable DSLRs. If not necessarily cheaper, they have better image quality for the price than mechanical behemoths. A Sony A7Riii body is the same size, within about 1/8", as a Leica M, and the same weight.

 

Having jumped into Sony with both feet, my kit is no featherweight. However there is at least 30% less weight and size to carry, in spite of the fact I now carry a second body and several prime lenses in addition to the "big three" working zooms - 16-35, 24-70 and 70-200. I have never experienced overheating, even during video sessions lasting two hours or more. Besides, MILCs and DSLRs use the same sensor technology. Why would one overheat and the other not? (The D6 is known to shut down due to overheating.) The new NP-FZ100 batteries last about 3 hours in continuous operation, up to 6000 exposures (at high speed), but more typically about 400 taken one at a time. At slightly more than 2 oz each, spare batteries are not hard to carry. As for color, the Sony is demonstrably accurate. That said, accuracy takes second place to some who prefer distortion which pleases them.

Honking lenses A7's.

 

Very expensive, and their performance is not that different from a Nikon d750, at the fraction of the price.

at no time have I noticed an overheating sensor causing image quality loss on either system - that one doesn’t make any sense at all

 

The sensor of a mirrorless camera is powered and active all the time when the camera is switched on, whether using the electronic viewfinder or Live View and whether shooting or not. A powered and active sensor heats up. A DSLR sensor is only powered and active for a short period of time when shooting photos with the optical viewfinder.

 

Camera manufacturers warn about thermal issues in their user manuals; here are some excerpts:

Nikon Z7: August 2018; MILC/mirrorless; FF sensor; no optical viewfinder; electronic viewfinder; monitor

Shooting may end automatically to prevent damage to the camera's internal circuits if the ambient temperature is high or the camera has been used extensively for burst shooting, movie recording, or the like.

 

Nikon D7200: March 2015; dSLR; APS-C sensor; optical viewfinder; no electronic viewfinder; Live View on monitor

Parts of the camera become hot while on or in use for extended periods and may cause fog and bright spots.

Live View will end automatically to protect internal circuits from overheating.

Overheating may occur because of high ambient temperatures or extended periods of using Live View, movie recording, or Continuous Release mode.

 

Canon EOS R: September 2018; MILC/mirrorless; FF sensor; no optical viewfinder; electronic viewfinder; monitor

Shooting in high temperatures may cause noise and irregular colors.

Continuous shooting over an extended period may cause the camera's internal temperature to rise and effect image quality.

 

Sony A7III: February 2018; MILC/mirrorless; FF sensor; no optical viewfinder; electronic viewfinder; monitor

When the temperature of the camera rises, the image quality may deteriorate.

Besides, MILCs and DSLRs use the same sensor technology. Why would one overheat and the other not?

See my explanation above.

I have shot quite a lot with mirrorless cameras and have never experienced any of these problems. I think they’re describing extreme cases. I also think there’s some odd kind of anti-mirrorless sentiment that doesn’t make much sense. I don’t see hammer enthusiasts going around talking crap about screwdrivers...

One of the things that I think will be interesting to watch is if Canon and Nikon release new DSLRs this year either in lieu of or in conjunction with a flagship mirrorless body.

 

I don't follow Canon closely enough to know for sure, but pretty much since the D1 in 1999, Nikon has maintained a 4-5 year cycle for their flagship DSLR, generally releasing them 6-11 months in advance of the summer Olympics. With the games in Tokyo in 2020, I'm sure all three of the major brands(Canon, Nikon, and Sony) will want to have their latest, greatest, and best in widespread use at the games.

 

Personally, I see a D6 on the horizon either late this year or in January of next year. The D5 was released in early 2016, so again that would be right on track. I don't expect it to be a HUGE upgrade-if I had to make a prediction, it will likely be a tweaked/enhanced version of the 24mp Z6 sensor, and will likely improve AF and frame rate(although I suspect we're getting to the point where frame rates can't get much higher and maintain any notion of the ability to track action with a moving mirror). Of some note to me, though, is that there has not been an "s" version of the D5, although admittedly MOST of the "s" DSLRs are more tweaks than any huge improvements(the D3s is probably the lone exception, with a redesigned sensor that gave ~1 stop of high ISO performance over the original D3).

 

At least when it comes to the Olympics, I do think a new flagship DSLR from Canon and Nikon. I've paid more attention to the Nikon Z series than anything else, but to me the short registration distance and huge throat scream "wide and fast." This is in contrast to the F mount, which has both a long registration distance and is narrow as compared to more modern mounts like the EF mount, or even other roughly contemporary mounts like the FL/FD mount. AFAIK, Nikon doesn't really have any fast telephotos in the road map(aside from the ubiquitous 70-200mm f/2.8) since F mount teles should in theory adapt well. At the same time, it's my understanding that, as good as the FTZ adapter is, F mount lenses still don't work QUITE as well as they do on high end F-mount bodies.

 

So, I guess to sum things up, I think we'll see at least one more flagship DSLR from Nikon. 2024 may well be a different story.

I also think there’s some odd kind of anti-mirrorless sentiment that doesn’t make much sense

 

Let me see: warnings about overheating, increased noise, fogging, bright spots, irregular colors, deteriorating image quality and shorter battery life. Odd anti-mirrorless sentiment? How about some legitimate concerns that few people are willing to talk about?

See my explanation above.

 

I don't know about that frans. I have all my cameras on a battery saver where it goes to sleep at a set interval. I don't think the sensor stays on all the time. And I haven't noticed any deterioration of color, hot spots ore any of that. Do you actually use one, or are you just reading about them?

I don't know about that frans. I have all my cameras on a battery saver where it goes to sleep at a set interval. I don't think the sensor stays on all the time. And I haven't noticed any deterioration of color, hot spots ore any of that. Do you actually them, or you just reading about them?

 

When you work with your mirrorless, either in EVF mode or Live View mode, the sensor is continuously powered and exercised, causing the sensor temperature to increase (of course, when you switch the camera off, the heating will stop and the sensor will gradually cool down). It has been reported that power downs and/or noticeable image quality degradation may occur with mirrorless cameras in as little as 12 minutes and up to 1 hour or more and that to me seems like operating times that many photographers would use on a regular basis.

I don't have a mirrorless camera (yet), but my DSLR will expire one of these days and I'm trying to understand if mirrorless is a viable option.

Well, even when shooting a wedding, I've never had that happen. I generally don't use live view, but I do use the EVF. That's using both a Fuji and a Panasonic. Has anyone else here that uses a Mirrorless ever have these kind of problems?