Kodak Film Sales

<p>Keith:<br /> I'm really interested in the whole industry and Kodak, being the market leader for most of the World, is a bellwether of the <em>whole industry</em>. In other words, the whole film industry is in decline.<br /> BUT - it <em>is</em> quite possible for a smaller company to <em>increase</em> sales at the expense of their bigger rivals. In other words, as Kodak and FUJIFILM goes downhill, folks jump to smaller rivals (whether it's price, availability, the look, etc...) and the smaller rival(s) increases sales - they're getting larger pieces of a steadily shrinking pie. Of those smaller companies (Ilford, Foma, Efke, etc...) whose sales are increasing, I don't know.<br /> As far as color film is concerned, Kodak and FujiFilm are the only brands out there - at least here in the States.</p>

<p> </p>

<p>Looking at chart Turnover is down 67% while profit is down 40%, what is doom and gloom about that ... they are more efficient at making money than ever. Also they have lost 2/3rd of the gross revenue over a decade where as I am sure that more than 2/rds of developed markets have moved over to digital from film ..so there is uptake somewhere in film use. This i think is evidenced by the release of new films. It is certainly not what it was for film shooters but I think we need to stop being paranoid and get on with taking pictures:) </p>

<p>Honestly. Don't you have anything better to do than post this chart? If you love digital, shoot it! If you love film, shoot it! Check the U.S. economy and sales of nearly all goods these past 3 years. You'll see a similar graph. If your point is that film is going away soon, then let's all stock up cause it will be worth a Hell of lot more in EBAY! In that case film will far outperform the stock market. Will you post a similar chart then? Doubt it.... </p>

<p>Russ;<br>

Some of like me have used Kodak products for 50 years; and see Kodaks decline more like the Titanic; thus we are concerned.</p>

<p>Kodak has been on a long death spiral well before the US economy tanked.</p>

<p> http://seekingalpha.com/article/216727-eastman-kodak-developing-a-new-exposure</p>

<p>Kodak sold digital cameras in 1991; and still is in a loss in that area; ie 19 years of being funded by film's profits.</p>

<p>Each new CEO has to deal with the rigid Rochester old guard at Kodak; still stuck in the 1980 glory days. Each new CEO; Whitmore, Fisher (Motorola) , Carp (Kodak), Perez (HP) has had a plan with digital.</p>

<p>April 2003: "Perez is arriving at Kodak during a tricky transition in the photography industry, as digital imaging makes huge inroads in the traditional silver-halide film market. Kodak is pouring $500 million a year into digital research to keep pace with rivals in a highly competitive arena."</p>

<p>http://www.usatoday.com/money/industries/technology/2003-04-02-kodak-pres_x.htm</p>

<p> July 2010 QUOTE :" Today, over 70% of sales come from digital products. The key for Kodak to be successful is to grow the digital product segments to a point where they can become sustainably profitable."</p>

<p>http://seekingalpha.com/article/216727-eastman-kodak-developing-a-new-exposure</p>

<p>Kodak has a very basical fundamental problem. After 19 years they are still hopeing that digital will be profitable.</p>

<p>Another July 2010 QUOTE :"Free cash flow is minimal, coming in negative in 2008 and 2009, and just +$23 million in the past 12 months."</p>

<p>One can go back and read each Kodak CEO's dogma and it is about using films profits to fund investment in digital;and this goes back even 15 years ago. It is like if one works like a dog and one gives ones spouse gobs of cash to fund some artsy business; "hoping" that some day it will be profitable</p>

<p>About all of Kodak's profits on film have been pumped into a lossy digital products; and this goes back 10 and 15 years ago.</p>

<p>Imagine if 70 percent of one sales were negative; or nil in profit like Kodak. ie you work 7 days a week and loose or break even on 5 days jobs; and use the weekends 2 days to "fund" the weekdays job.</p>

<p>The "trust fund" of Kodak's film sales have funded almost 2 decades worth of digital gizmos; that many have had about no return on investment.</p>

<p> </p>

<p>Kodak did introduce their new Ektar film not too long ago and it is a wonderful film. Their T-Max is a big hit. Most of us that shoot color slide film are cross processing it and the Kodak films have the advantage over their Fuji counterparts as the Fuji film gives off some nasty magenta color casts. Fuji also recently announced they were dropping their Neopan 400 and some of the Color Pro series films. Fuji cutting product is good news for Kodak. It's fairly safe to say that most of us here on photo.net all shoot the professional grade films and the quality and features of the film will continue to be our deciding factor when purchasing film. I like to save money as much as the next guy but it the price of the professional grade films goes it I'll gladly pay it and not move the the low end consumer grade films. I do think that Kodak has lost touch with their customer base. I have a terrible time finding C-41 chemicals in small quantities for home use as Kodak keeps phasing out the smaller packaging "due to declining sales". Ironically they did recently introduce a small E-6 chemistry kit(5 liter) for about $60. I have no hard numbers but have to believe that a C-41 kit would be a bigger seller than this new E-6. Everyone I know soups E-6 film in C-41 for the look. </p>

<p>This makes me sad. I guess I'll go back to painting and drawing as my number one hobby... At least pencils and paint brushes will be around a long time.</p>

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<p>Honestly. Don't you have anything better to do than post this chart?</p>

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<p>Actually, no. One of my interests is business and economic history and we're in a unique time where we're seeing an industry be completely changed and I can't think of any other industry that went through something like this - maybe the horse and carriage to automobile would be the closest thing.</p>

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<p>If you love digital, shoot it! If you love film, shoot it!</p>

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<p>I do both - mostly digital because it's cheaper and even then, I don't have the time because I'm making charts.</p>

 

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<p>Check the U.S. economy and sales of nearly all goods these past 3 years. You'll see a similar graph.</p>

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<p>No you won't. The photographic film industry is the only industry that has been declining the way it has.</p>

 

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<p>If your point is that film is going away soon,</p>

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<p>No, I never said that. My point was to show how the film industry was changing and maybe get across that some statements I've seen around aren't really true such as: there's a resurgence in film.</p>

<p>Considering the million and millions of film cameras that are still functional out there and the (sometimes fanatical) following of film users, I think there will still be <em>some</em> demand for film - mostly 35mm - for years to come. But, there won't be enough of a market for companies the size of Eastman Kodak or FUJIFILM to stay in - the photographic film market will be a tiny tiny fraction of what it once was. It has actually amazed me that Kodak has been sticking with it as long as they have since their margins are a tenth of what they were in the 90s.</p>

 

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<p>then let's all stock up cause it will be worth a Hell of lot more in EBAY!</p>

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<p>The could very well be true - until it expires and folks can't get it processed.</p>

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<p>In that case film will far outperform the stock market. Will you post a similar chart then? Doubt it....</p>

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<p>I'll leave that up to you.</p>

 

<p>Dave B, the housing market has faced a more dramatic decline than film sales have be it existing home sales or new building permits. The other thing you mention is that Kodaks margins are a tenth of what they used to be , but if the charts on the thread starter are anything to go by , their margins are increasing since their profits from film have not been declining with the same rate of change as sales by volume. Reference Expired film, it is now staring to sell on ebay for close to or in some cases more than the cost of a new film.. lomo people want the film bad enough it seems. It is increasingly rare to get a really good deal on film on ebay be it expired or in date, I saw PRovia the other day being sold sucessfully for 90% of its new value even though it was expired a year. I pretty much dont bother looking for deals on old film any more. </p>

<p>John:<br /> Yeah, the housing market has taken a huge hit and I don't think it's really comparable to what the film industry has gone through: housing is a disaster. Photo film sales took a 68% hit from 2004 to 2009 that (even more if you go back further), unlike housing, is probably never coming back. Film has been going through this long steady and sometimes steep decline.<br /> That would be an interesting comparison though....<br>

And I found <a href="http://calculatedriskimages.blogspot.com/2010/04/exihttp://calculatedriskimages.blogspot.com/2010/04/existing-home-sales-march-2010.html">one </a>and from 2006 to the end of the chart, it still looks like film got housing beat in terms of percent decline - see peak mid '05 to the bottom of '09 - about a 40% drop or so? Compared to 68% for film.</p>

<p>As far as the margins are concerned - the charts only go back several years. The margins in the late 80s were much higher - I don't have the numbers handy because I've been concentrating on the last several years when digital started to really dig into film's sales.</p>

<p>That's interesting about old film, but I expect the prices will plummet if C-41 processing doesn't become readily available. Actually, a relative example would be E6 - as E6 processing disappears, I wonder how the old E6 market is doing.....</p>

<p> </p>

<p>I received some Portra for my birthday. I still haven't seen the new Portra 400.</p>

<p>My link broke arrrggg!</p>

<p>Here it is for housing: http://calculatedriskimages.blogspot.com/2010/04/existing-home-sales-march-2010.html</p>

<p>David I was referring more to the Rate of change, its also of note that Kodak are starting to design new film cameras in medium format. I was talking to several film developing places and they tell me that they are seeing a strong pickup in business, one local place has gone from 50 rolls a day to 250. I found a lab locally and was really surprised to see that they had a huge cabinet full of films to give back to customers and they are increasing their number of development runs daily. While its a shrinking market all that matters is that its a viable one and we have some choice left. More and more movie directors are insisting on not shooting in digital so stills photographers will benefit from that too. <br /> <br /><br />Provia is E6 , the really strange thing about E6 on ebay is that i have encountered many sellers successfully selling it for more than I can get it for from online retailers. I only started studying photography recently and Im sold on film for the moment , im going to start developing it at home. Certainly nothing is like what it was before but Ill keep using film untill I cant and while its true there have been discontinuations in " my time " there have also been 2 introductions of new films also, as somebody has pointed out smaller companies can potentially take up the slack... There are many niche markets within digital photography just as im sure that film can be a niche within photography even if it isnt Kodak making it. Robert I am looking forward to seeing the new Portra also.</p>

<p>I think the music industry actually parallels the photo industry pretty well. </p>

<p>Film is being displaced by digital but there are a few dedicated enthusiasts and some art student types that are causing a small resurgence of interest in film. The problem is that small resurgence isn't anywhere near enough to stop the massive decline but I think it does provide a floor although we're still a long way from that floor. Kodak and Fuji are big companies. They may eventually decide to get out of the film business but I think smaller companies like Efke and Foma will service what ends up being a tiny but profitable business.</p>

<p>Many people remember when vinyl records were king and the CD took over in the 80's. CD sales have been dropping for the last 10 years. US music sales have dropped from $14.6 billion in 1999 to just $6.3 billion in 2009.<br>

http://money.cnn.com/2010/02/02/news/companies/napster_music_industry/</p>

<p>But during that time there has been a resurgence in the old vinyl record. Vinyl sales were up 15% from 2006 to 2007. Of course they're only 0.2% of overall album sales but these smaller operations have found ways to make money and grow their business.</p>

<p>http://www.time.com/time/magazine/article/0,9171,1702369,00.html</p>

<p>We might also want to note the fact that KODAK just invested more money into STILL COLOR FILM for us. I see at this point not a big alarm..this is fairly old news and Kodak is still showing that they are still interested in film. Last October, we got Ektar. Shoot it up. </p>

<p> How is Ilford doing anyway. I like Delta 100 just fine. I could be quite satisfied just shooting that one film for the rest of my life. Is there a doomsday graph for Ilford? </p>

<p>Many dozens of industries have declined like Kodak.</p>

<p>(1) Some evolve and survive;</p>

<p>(2) Others party on as the ship sinks investing cash into projects with little rate of return.<br>

<br /><br /><br /></p>

<p>IBM started to get out of the hardware business about 1993; and fully exited a few years ago. Today they are about all services.</p>

<p><br /><br /><br /><br>

Dietzgen; K&E once made and sold transits; levels; theodolites; drafting items; paper too. A tiny shard of K&E exists with some obscure products. The Dietzgen brand name today is owned by Nashua.Imagine if all Rochester is closed down; and either Illford or Fuji just buys the brand name.<br>

<br /><br /><br /></p>

<p>These old Brand names have a worth even if dead. Thus the old TV names like Philco; Emerson, Zenith can be placed on a Chinese made product; and sold old chap "feels good" because he bought a Philco TV in 1953. One places the Bell and Howell name on a goober P&S digital and some old guy equates the name as adding value.</p>

<p><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br>

The SS Kodak ship hit the digital iceberg over a decade ago; as sales in film sinks; cash is injected into more digital items; in a *hope* that one might have a decent rate of return. The spotted the iceberg 20 years ago.</p>

<p><strong>All along photo.net one can notice that about nobody uses or talks about any Kodak digital cameras or printers; it is on par with dialog about Instamatics.</strong></p>

<p>So that digital 70 percent of Kodaks sales today in 2010 are in stuff nobody here uses; and the farm is being bet on it. As film declines further; the cash flow of actual profits from film is used to support 19 years worth of digital attempts. The pickle is daddys trust fund has had 19 years worth of digital projects with little return; and the trust fund is shrinking.<br>

<br /><br /><br /></p>

<p>Aug 2010 Quote:</p>

<p>"In March, Kodak's movie-film business, which had remained relatively steady even as camera film sales plunged, suffered a new blow when three big movie theater chains secured financing to convert 14,000 movie screens to digital projection by 2013.</p>

<p>http://www.nasdaq.com/aspx/company-news-story.aspx?storyid=201008101337dowjonesdjonline000264</p>

<p>I might try out some Efke 25. I think its clear film is not what it was but there are as things stand plenty of options and Im sure there will be more in the future for those who spend their time taking pictures. Just today I shot off two rolls of Ilford 3200 and really wanted to try out a roll of Ektacolor 160, I just bought 500 rolls of the stuff, interestingly a kodak film. </p>

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<p>IBM started to get out of the hardware business about 1993; and fully exited a few years ago. Today they are about all services.</p>

</blockquote>

<p>This would come as quite a surprise to the many people I know designing hardware at IBM.</p>

<p>I wonder if anyone told my cousin he is an IBM repair man. That said Yesterday I shot and developed a roll of Tri-X day before that a roll of Rollei 80s and today a roll of Delta 100.</p>

<p> Tomorrow is another day and it looks like maybe more Tri-X in that future.</p>

<p>I knew our hobby was in deep trouble when numerous coworkers and friends started bragging about the pathetic quality of the images coming off their cell phones - people who mostly if you handed them a 35mm SLR or DSLR wouldn't know what end to look into.I believe the whole hobby is in dire straights because people have come to accept mediocrity as the norm.Not just in photography but in just about all aspects of modern life.I'll keep shooting my Canon F1 and E6 until they have to pry the damn thing from my cold dead hand.</p>

<p>Douglas</p>

<p> No we still have many who understand and crawl into caves just to find films. I have shipped film to people all over the world just so they could have it. It is almost like we have an underground economy.</p>

<p> I like the guy who is making his own film...... He is not here but if he wishes to join us he will.</p>

<p>Remember Photography was called a bustard and other names by paint artist when it came about... I think it will survive because of those who won't go over to the digital side.</p>

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<p>IBM started to get out of the hardware business about 1993; and fully exited a few years ago. Today they are about all services.</p>

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<p>It seems you have not used any computer hardware other than a PC. IBM got out of the PC business, not the hardware business altogether. They still sell billions of dollars worth of mainframe hardware and Unix/Linux based servers every year. And billions in software too.</p>

<p> I read about a guy who still coats his own glass plates. I find it hard to believe B&W photography was ever a mainstream hobby but it has survived color, E6 and digital. I've never bumped into anyone besides myself that owned enlargers and/or developed their own fim. (and I'm no kid.) Someone will make B&W film 20 years from now. You might pay a lot of money for it but it will be there.</p>

<p>No Don't worry as the world will start to totally end in December 2012. It will be cut short and the survivors will be under the Lord of the Earth Jesus. Then again we will always have Foma and Whatever Rollei re brands. :)</p>

<p>Not to be too cynical, but do you think there is an investment/speculation opportunity here, i.e. to short Kodak shares, hypothetically speaking of course?</p>