david_smith110 Posted October 22, 2015 Share Posted October 22, 2015 <p>With the Leica SL now upon us Sony is no longer the exclusive manufacturer of FF mirrorless cameras with EVF and interchangeable lenses. The a7 series has done quite well over the last couple of years and honestly I am a little surprised that Leica is the first to enter this particular market segment over some of the other (one could say faster to react) camera manufacturers. But I suppose every maker currently has what they consider their specialty or niche and have chosen not to enter this market for one reason or other, despite would could be viewed as something that has been successful for Sony.</p><p>While the SL may cement its place in history as the second FF mirrorless EVF ICL camera the price alone will preclude the masses from enjoying it. Many photographers already bemoan the price of the A7RII as being stratospherically high and out of the reach of mere mortals. The Leica moves the price of admission <em>way</em> beyond this.</p><p>So I am curious to hear opinions from those who are following the mirrorless movement and interested in these things to express your ideas on who you think will be the next to enter into the FF mirrorless EVF ICL market. Feel free to include any information which has led you to your belief or simply drop some wild speculation. But I ask that you do give your serious answer to this.</p><p>For you fanboys and forum trolls out there, this is not an exercise in mirrorless is better then dslr. This is not <em>Lol omg wut Sony is da best</em>! I am honestly asking for opinions on who you may think will be the next big player to enter into this particular market segment. Please explain why you think this is the case.</p><p>For my part, and what actually started me thinking about this, is an offhand mention on one of the podcasts (I cant remember which one) that Panasonic may be the maker of the FF sensor in the SL. And due to this Panasonic may look to branch off from micro 4/3's and make the jump to FF with a secondary line of cameras. This might be a good move from them, since moving to APSC doesn't make much sense due to not being that much bigger then 4/3. But as I said, this was a quick off hand mention, but made the gears churn a little.</p><p>I look forward to your responses.<br> </p> Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GerrySiegel Posted October 22, 2015 Share Posted October 22, 2015 I really see no rush by Panasonic to offer a so called full frame model. Leica SL and Sony do not forecast a trend to get to what is seen in some forums as the holy grail. Unless the affordablility factor comes way way down. Then it will depend on whether certain shooters will need the advantages of the larger sensor. I follow the mirrorless movement. I see a consistent improvement in things that are vital. Processing power. Resolution. All within the less than large legacy frame size. As well as even better viewfinder resolution. And filling in the lens lineup. Such as this - when will Panasonic introduce a teleconverter for its superb 35-100 F 2.8. Ok. My wild Las Vegas speculation says Canon or NIkon will offer something to take advantage of its FX lenses in a price that is sufferable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andylynn Posted October 22, 2015 Share Posted October 22, 2015 I don't think any of the current mirrorless manufacturers are likely to get in on this any time soon. If I were to hazard a guess I'd say the next full frame mirrorless system will come from Canon or Nikon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Peter_in_PA Posted October 22, 2015 Share Posted October 22, 2015 <p>I think FF mirrorless will always be a niche product. If you need full-frame, most, I think, would rather have a DSLR anyway. If you want mirrorless, it's often for the size advantages, and people like me don't want FF for that at all. too big and bulky.</p> Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed_Ingold Posted October 22, 2015 Share Posted October 22, 2015 <p>It's not just the camera but the lenses too. Fuji is probably the one to watch, since they have an enviable collection of dedicated lenses, still growing. Sony will be hard to catch, given the 20 or so dedicated lenses in their stable, and Zeiss fully on board with the E mount. Canon and Nikon will wait until the last possible moment, to avoid eroding their DSLR market share. It may be too late, considering the impact Sony has had, and the number of defectors they've acquired.</p> Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Robin Smith Posted October 22, 2015 Share Posted October 22, 2015 <p>I don't think Fuji will jump as the advantage of their system is its smaller APS-C size. As the Leica SL shows, if you want to guarantee small size then don't go FF. Likewise Olympus and Panasonic. I think it much more likely that Canon or Nikon will go a similar route to Leica - in overall size and approach. They may introduce a new line of lenses or make the mirrorless completely compatible with their existing EF lenses. Of course it could be an outsider like Samsung who goes next.</p> Robin Smith Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jochen_S Posted October 22, 2015 Share Posted October 22, 2015 <p>I'd suspect Samsung. - They seem to be in a similar starting position as Sony, i.e. a screens and stuff manufacturer who kind of used a me-too DSLR manufacturer (Minolta / Pentax) to get their toes wet and seems offering a competitive line of APS MILCs. They also have a German lens maker on board like the other 2: Schneider Kreuznach (at least I read that name on my k-mount DSLR's kit zoom).<br> I doubt it would be a bright idea for Fuji to go FF. Why not remain challenging Pentax with an X-Pro645 D "Texas Leica"? - Avoiding competitions you can't win appears like a healthy strategy. - Sorry I am seeing Pentax as Fuji's target market right now. They make even slower AF, weatherproofing, nice colors, more compact bodies, decent pancakey lenses... stuff thats usually seen rather from Pentax than Canikon. And the gap between APS and crop MF is big enough to justify 2 product lines.</p> Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
david_smith110 Posted October 22, 2015 Author Share Posted October 22, 2015 <p>Robin, Jochen, I am so glad both of you brought up Samsung. I was curious how long it would take someone to mention them and I'm surprised to find them on the first page.</p> <p>Personally I think Samsung has all the components in place to make an amazing FF camera in this category. Their apsc cameras are, I believe, the single biggest hidden gem in photography right now. If I was considering an apsc camera I would give them a hard look, but my photography is better served currently with FF.</p> <p>Samsung is really the Rodney Dangerfield of cameras. If I'm not mistaken their sensor in the NX1 I believe was just rated as the best apsc sensor ever. They build great weather proofing into their bodies an have what seems to be a decent line up of lenses. With their TV experience they can probably run neck and neck with Sony, Fuji and now Leica for top of the line EVF's. If anyone is able to capitalize on this market segment right now it would be Samsung.</p> <p>Ah, here is the link I was looking for.<br /> http://www.mirrorlessrumors.com/dxo-about-the-nx1-sensor-hail-the-new-king-of-aps-c-hybrids/</p> <p>EDIT- Oh dear, maybe I posted this to soon. Found this article as I was looking for more Samsung stuff.<br> http://www.mirrorlessrumors.com/very-bad-news-samsung-will-really-kill-the-nx-camera-system/</p> Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donbright Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 <p>Now that the shoe has dropped with the Leica SL, I see Fuji coming out on top with a new development.</p> Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jochen_S Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 <p>Thanks for sharing the sads news about Samsung. - I suppose they might have made it, giving the project a couple of years to earn fame. - It takes a while to have customers build up trust into a brand. <br> I just read up: Sigma are hard pressed to find the data processing electronics for bigger Foveon sensors. So I guess it might take a while until somebody else is ready to make the cameras you are expecting. So an A7R II pricedrop will most likely be A7R III triggered.</p> Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Peter_in_PA Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 <blockquote> <p>Now that the shoe has dropped with the Leica SL, I see Fuji coming out on top with a new development.<br /> </p> </blockquote> <p>One has nothing to do with the other. I doubt Samsung is using the introduction of a product that, with lens, is over 10 grand, to dictate or inform what they are doing in the consumer market.</p> Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andylynn Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 I would have thought Samsung would keep at it. Their strategy is usually to wait until a market is developed enough to predict which way things will go, then carpet bomb with an array of products priced lower than the competition, leveraging their size advantage. That's how they won TVs for example. I guess that they finally lost a round to Sony. Wrt Fuji, if I were to guess I'd say they'd skip over full frame - which they've taken every opportunity to say they don't care about - and if they make anything larger than APSC it will be a medium format mirrorless. Larger than an A7, smaller than a Texas Leica. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
david_smith110 Posted October 23, 2015 Author Share Posted October 23, 2015 <p>Andy, I completely agree with your (and others) assessment of Fuji. I think they will skip FF and attempt to recreate in the MF market what Sony did with FF. It makes sense on so many levels. It wont put them in direct competition with Sony but they can use a similar business plan for success. Fuji has a lot of MF history to pull from as well. I think they would be well served making such a move, as would the photographic community. A mirrorless MF camera a little bigger then an a7 (say around the size of an SL...) which had an attractive price would probably sell like hotcakes.</p> Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dieter Schaefer Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 <p>Canon and Nikon will be the next to come out with a FF mirrorless - I'm not placing any bets who will be first - they will be close together anyway. At least for some time, they will be offering DSLR and mirrorless simultaneous.</p> <p>Panasonic won't come out with a FF mirrorless - they would have to either rely on Leica lenses (the price of which will make that a no go), or rely on Leica to provide low-cost lenses (not going to happen) or produce a whole lens system themselves (doesn't look to be economical). Leica with the SL can rely on a user base with M, R, and S lenses to purchase the camera - an advantage Panasonic does not have. Neither does Fuji - so they may not want to touch FF mirrorless either - not at least until Canon/Nikon have put their cards on the table. Olympus won't for the same reason. And it looks like Samsung won't be making cameras at all anymore.</p> <p>Sony has been criticized a lot initially for not having enough lenses - that's changing fast now.</p> Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DickArnold Posted October 24, 2015 Share Posted October 24, 2015 In Comparing an optical view finder to an electronic view finder I owned I found the EVF lacking. I shoot sports and until I can use an EVF to instantly evalute action I am reluctant to become enthusiastic about a full frame mirrorless ICL camera. After having used Canon for years I went to Sony NEX for a full array of mirrorless camera and lenses. I got rid of it for two reasons: the EVF and poor e-mount lenses. I think these same issues are holding Canon and Nikon back from the the mirrorless full frame markets. Having owned EOS M kit I like the Canon ergonomics better particularly with the menus and controls although I am a little disappointed in the EOS M3 which I am reluctant to purchase. I think they are a ways away from competing with the Sony A Sevens. Lenses are a huge deal and why, more than anything else I stick with Canon. I have a lot of sunk cost. Adapters are ok but I would rather stick to Canon bodies to mount Canon lenses. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed_Ingold Posted October 24, 2015 Share Posted October 24, 2015 <p>If the latest Sony A7 cameras are not suited for sports, it is not because of the EVF or response time. The lag time is 23 msec, about the same as a Leica M3 and half that of a Nikon D3 (40 msec). If there were long lenses with autofocus for the Sony, cameras with optical finders would have no strategic advantage. The A7Sii will handle 4K video at up to 120 fps. That's 12 MP per frame at over ten times the speed of the fastest DSLR.</p> <p>However, people don't buy the A7 for sports and super-telephoto lenses. Their real strength is extreme image quality, approaching that of medium format, in a conveniently sized package which operates silently when needed. The loudest noise in my A7Rii in silent mode is the closing of the aperture. Even the auto focus doesn't click or whirr like the D3. Jeeps are great for climbing over rocks, but after several road trips in one, my hearing is permanently damaged. I'll take my Odyssey and my Sony, any day.</p> Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed_Ingold Posted October 24, 2015 Share Posted October 24, 2015 <p>If the latest Sony A7 cameras are not suited for sports, it is not because of the EVF or response time. The lag time is 23 msec, about the same as a Leica M3 and half that of a Nikon D3 (40 msec). If there were long lenses with autofocus for the Sony, cameras with optical finders would have no strategic advantage. The A7Sii will handle 4K video at up to 120 fps. That's 12 MP per frame at over ten times the speed of the fastest DSLR.</p> <p>However, people don't buy the A7 for sports and super-telephoto lenses. Their real strength is extreme image quality, approaching that of medium format, in a conveniently sized package which operates silently when needed. The loudest noise in my A7Rii in silent mode is the closing of the aperture. Even the auto focus doesn't click or whirr like the D3. Jeeps are great for climbing over rocks, but after several road trips in one, my hearing is permanently damaged. I'll take my Odyssey and my Sony, any day.</p> Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DickArnold Posted October 24, 2015 Share Posted October 24, 2015 What you see through an optical finder is what you get. There is no lag below the speed of light.This the critical ocmponent of the shot. I think EVFs are fine for most work and the next mirrorless camers I buy will have one. From a practical standpoint I just could not make the NEX work particularly when trying to shoot ten frames per second at moving target.. Maybe it was me and not the camera. An EVF was essential on my previous NEX camera because one could not see the lcd in bright light. There are EVF difficulties with low light and from what I read dynamic range; but some people say the latter is true of all canons. I jumped into mirrorless a while ago because I would really like to get rid of the mirror. The 7D2 has a remarkable focusing and tracking system that gives me more high volume keepers than any camera I have owned. From my experience with my for EVF, I cannot envision how an EVF could play into that scenario. Particularly at ten frames a second. Perhaps that can be attributed to my lack of understanding or my skill. I use my 7DII for a lot of things. I do landscapes with it and have recently produced quite satisfactory pictures with paid models among other things like NE fall foliage. If it the Sony A7 is not used for sports then if I had one I would have keep a 7DII or something else as well. So how does that effect my view for the future? I think the issues I raised above have to be resolved before I spend 3k or more on a mirrorless full frame body. As I said I would like it to be from Canon because of sunk lens costs and ergonomics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
david_smith110 Posted October 24, 2015 Author Share Posted October 24, 2015 <p>The thing about EVF is that for all practical purposes it is still in its infancy. EVF's have come so far in the last few years and when compared to earlier offerings the difference in quality is amazing. As cost for components come down and technology advances there is no reason to believe that EVF's wont continue to get better and better in ways we cant foresee.</p> <p>With mirrorless cameras coming more into the forefront of photography companies will try to one up each other with better and better tv screen view finders. For my photography the EVF in my original a7 works perfectly fine. No, I don't shoot sports. And neither do a lot of other photographers. But for other then that one niche of photography EVF's work just fine for anything else. And again, no reason to think EVF's wont get us there eventually, in ways we cant even imagine right now. When you factor in evolving EVF's, evolving sensor based focus tech, and even pulling stills out of high speed, high MP 4k video...well, the future is so bright you gotta wear shades. Or use exposure comp. :)</p> Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DickArnold Posted October 24, 2015 Share Posted October 24, 2015 David. I agree. The future holds a lot of promise. I can't believe that I am shooting at ISOs today that I wouldn't have dreamed of just a few short two or three years ago. It is going so fast sometimes it costs a lot of money just to keep up with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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