Does Anybody Have a Z9?

Discussion in 'Nikon' started by ShunCheung, Dec 29, 2021.

  1. ShunCheung

    ShunCheung Administrator

    Just curious anyone has a Z9, and what their early impressions are.

    I, for one, did not pre-order a Z9. I read some FaceBook groups and people are pretty crazy about the Z9. Apparently B&H opened the Z9 page for pre-ordering at 8am EST on October 28, 2021, at the same time Nikon's official announcement started. There are a lot of posts that people lined up to pre-order at 8:01am, 8:02am and they are now comparing their order numbers. Apparently there were already several hundred orders within the first few minutes. Now they are checking their positions in the wait queue and are wondering when B&H will get enough cameras to start shipping. But of course neither Nikon nor B&H has any concrete numbers about how many units they will get and when they will get them.

    Perhaps some may enjoy that processing, but I would have been very frustrated in such a process.

    Meanwhile, there are all sorts of rumors that Nikon will not be able to ship more Z9 until October, 2022. I have little doubt that is all nonsense.
     
  2. I heard about a monthly production of just 3,500 units - if indeed true, it will take a long time to even fill the pre-orders here in the US. Not to mention satisfy the world-wide demand. Nikon might have planned for a production run similar to the D4, D5, or D6; I would not be surprised if the sales number will be much much higher.
     
  3. Still waiting in the UK. Pre-ordered very soon after announcement.

    It's going to be a long covid themed winter, so no great hurry.
     
  4. ShunCheung

    ShunCheung Administrator

    Dieter, IMO, that 3500 figure is way too low. Back in 2007, initially Nikon was producing 8000 D3 a month in Sendai, Japan. After a while, the demand was high so that they increased to 9000 a month. In 2012, that same Sendai factory had the capacity to produce 30K D800/D800E a month.

    Now that the Z9 is manufactured in Nikon Thailand, whose capacity is much higher than Sendai. The fact that Nikon is pricing the Z9 to only $5500 indicates to me that they can meet a lot more demand. Otherwise, I think they can easily sell 3500 Z9 a month @ $7000 for a while and would be leaving a lot of money for scalpers to pick up.

    Yeah, Covid is still seriously interrupting my life too (but at least I am not sick from it). There seems to be no hurry to get another new camera.
     
  5. Why the hurry, i wonder.
    The release of a new camera is the opportunity, i think, to get the 'best thing to have' prior to the thing that has become the next. Those 'oldies' are still as good as they were. The new ones need their bugs found and corrected. The old ones drop in price (used as well) and the new ones are very expensive (i don't see how $ 5500 could be something that could be qualified as 'only' that much.)

    So i'll wait until i feel a real need for a Z9. Meanwhile i may get a spare D850 or two.
     
  6. Read an article yesterday that predicts the Z9 to become a sales flop! I don't think so at all. A D4, D5, or D6 was never the camera for me - not enough megapixels for what I do (though AF performance and frame rate would have been very welcome) and way too expensive for my taste and wallet. The Z9 solves the "too few pixels" for me and the price is "more comfortable" (it's the same ballpark as buying a D500 and D850 to get both high frame rate and high MP count). In other words, I consider the Z9 much less niche than the previous DSLR pro-models. Both the Sony A1 and the Nikon Z9 are now allrounders (the Canon R3 is not on account of only 24MP); hence my prediction that a lot more Z9 will be sold than were D5 or D6 bodies. I only have to look at how many people purchase A1 bodies; I am quite certain the sales numbers exceed those of the A9/A9II.

    I am considering a Z9 - for me the decisive factor is the AF performance and I am waiting for relevant reviews but most likely will have to rent one to try it out myself. Only if the AF performance is (much) better than what I currently experience with the D500 and D850 will I purchase one.

    The pandemic has seriously curtailed my photographic exploits; I have almost exclusively done bird photography now for two years. Quite a bit of photographic equipment sits in the closet unused.
     
    Last edited: Dec 29, 2021
    wsanders and yardkat like this.
  7. The voice of reason that mirror's mine....:cool:
     
    Erik-Christensen likes this.
  8. Well.... someone's got to be first, right? :)
     
    mike_halliwell likes this.
  9. ShunCheung

    ShunCheung Administrator

    Not possible. There is no mirror any more. :rolleyes:

    Compared to DSLRs, the advantage of the Z9 and other mirrorless bodies is that essentially the entire sensor area is used for AF. On FX DSLRs, even with the Multi-CAM 20000, AF is restricted to a center rectangle. Recently I was capturing an eagle in flight with a D5, and the bird was in and out of the center of the frame, and the D5 kept on losing and regaining focus. The Z9 should do much better. On DX bodies such as the D500, the AF area is a much larger percentage of the entire frame so that the problem is not as severe.
     
    Last edited: Dec 29, 2021
  10. :D
     
    Last edited by a moderator: Dec 29, 2021
  11. Shun, I am not NPS. I ordered a Z9, 100-400mm lens, Z 1.4 x TC, CF cards, etc. Tomorrow, Thursday, I should be receiving the 100-400mm lens, FTZ II adapter, 1.4x Z TC , extra camera battery, but not the Z9 or the 24-70mm f4 S lens.

    I guess I will have to stare at the lens for awhile as I do not own any other Nikon mirrorless bodies. I might rent one to test out the lens and get familiar with mirrorless.

    My retailer does not know when I might get the Z9. He has no ETA for me.
     

  12. You should definitely find a Z body to test all your acquisitions before the return period runs out. If you have to wait 6-months for your Z9 body, and then find out the lens, FTZ, or TC are Dead on Arrival, you could no longer return them for a new item. You would have to use Nikon's warranty repair. Not a good situation. Maybe your retailer would lend you a body, a Z body. For the amount of money you just spent, he should.
     
    yardkat and Dieter Schaefer like this.
  13. I just read the same or like article here: The Nikon Z9 Will Be a Sales Flop, But That's Not What's Important | PetaPixel

    The gist of the article is that although the Z9 is an outstanding camera, it is targeted at a very small demographic - professionals and some well-off amateurs. Nikon has fallen far behind its mirrorless competitors in that Nikon has only 8% of the market. According to the article, Nikon is projecting delivering 3500 unit per month on top of delivering 250,000 unit of other mirrorless bodies. Canon and Sony each are delivering 1,000,000 bodies per month. The article does not go into margins, but I suspect the margins are greater on a camera like the Z6 or even Z7 than on the Z9.

    If you continue reading to the end of the article, I think you will find the author thinks the Z9 is an outstanding camera and given its target audience will sell well, but to prosper Nikon needs more.
     
    Last edited: Dec 30, 2021
  14. That is very good advice. Thanks, I will contact them abut that.
     
  15. The factory may be capable of producing more units, if it has the materials - in this case the chips. The auto industry produced a lot of cars - that sat in the factory parking lots awaiting chips. I suspect Nikon may be supply chain constrained.
     
  16. ShunCheung

    ShunCheung Administrator

    As I said earlier, if Nikon didn't have the volumes, they could have easily sold the Z9 at $7000 each if they intend to sell 3500 of them a month for a few months. The fact that they priced the Z9 to $1000 lower than the Sony A1 as well as their own D5 and D6 indicates that Nikon is confident that they can deliver in much larger volumes. Otherwise, scalpers will simply resell any Z9 they manage to get on eBay at much higher prices, or for that matter the likes of B&H, Adorama can always ask for a much higher price. In a free market, prices are determined by supply and demand. When demand is much higher than supply, prices will go up and someone else other than Nikon is going to make the extra profit that Nikon could have easily collected for themselves.

    Back in 2007, Nikon managed to sell roughly 100K D3 over two years, and most of those were likely sold early in the product cycle. I don't think Nikon will have much difficulty producing 10K Z9 a month. The global IC chip shortage is easing and Nikon really don't need that many to produce the Z9, which is still a niche product that has a relatively low volume.
     
    yardkat likes this.
  17. It would be a flop if some how because of parts, material, covid etc... reason that Nikon couldn't make enough to fill the pre-order in a timely manner.
     
  18. Is there any reason why custom 'recognition' modules couldn't get/be made?

    You could have a 4 image set of, say, a Barn Owl, load it into RAM, and let it chew it over. Current bird EYE AF, follows the eye, not the bird.

    Tuning the AF algorithm for specific purposes might be handy. Maybe your favourite team COLOUR to exclude other players from eye/face AF.

    Just floating ideas really....:D
     
  19. That's not a what flop is. A flop is a product that the manufacturer expected to be popular but turns out that people don't want it so it ends up with products being recycled or sold at firesales below cost. The Z9 is more popular than Nikon anticipated, so it's the opposite of a flop.
     
  20. It's a bad thing if you made something you can't sell but it's just about as bad if you sold something you can't make. I hope it's not the case but it would hurt Nikon seriously if they can't make them fast enough. I am confident the Z9 is a great product but if Nikon can't make enough of them for some reasons it's too bad. The demand will fade if people can't get their cameras for too long and they switch.
     

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