Adirondacks Guessing game

[dotty_waxman]

Peak fall colors vary so much according to weather & with yet another dry summer happening in the northeast, how

does this usually determine the peak dates? I have had good results in late September as well as the first 10 days

in October. Any suggestions for the 2012 season?

 

Thanks in advance.

[tudor_apmadoc]

<p>The peak dates will vary from year to year, the weather over the last year has been anything buy "normal" <br>

Micro climates can further complicate things. Here in Michigan, the center of the state colors peak before the areas within 20 miles of the great lakes</p>

<p>In Michigan they have a website to track the current state of the colors, but we've found that to be variable in it's accuracy.</p>

<p>Best suggestion - have very flexible plans - keep watch on the news, web, and pick a time as they colors start to peak.</p>

[bob_flood1]

There's some pretty straightforward science behind the fall foliage, but that doesn't make it easy to predict the timing.

 

The fall color happens when the days get short enough (daylight is reduced) that the photochemical process that produces chlorophyll in the leaves slows so much that the underlying color of the leaf is no longer masked by the green that the chlorophyll causes. That part of the process happens at the same time every year. However, chemical reactions are affected by temperature. So the change of color can happen later if the season has been warmer than normal, and sooner if it has been cooler.

 

Then there's rainfall. The chemistry is affected by how much water is available in the leaves, which is affected by long term rainfall. Lots of rain a week or two before the expected change of color won't alter the timing because the water takes too long to be taken up by trees and ultimately reach the leaves. So a wet summer can help sustain the photochemical process and cause the change to be a bit late, but not by a lot. On the other hand, a seriously dry season leading up to the fall foliage might delay the onset of the color slightly, but will shorten the duration of the color something awful. Leaves can change from green to brown in a couple of days in a drought.

 

The hard part of all this is estimating the actual effect of the conditions on timing, and I don't know of any studies that have tried to quantify this. I have personally seen fall foliage delayed by a month by a very warm fall, but I've only seen the peak color happen a week or so early for any reason.

 

Best bet - do some online searching or find contacts among photo clubs in the area and ask when is the "normal" time for fall color, and the watch the weather in the months before that time to gauge whether you should bias your schedule earlier or later to CYA. Growing up in southern Vermont, the rule of thumb was to expect peak color at Columbus Day, which is when I plan to be there.

[john_h.1]

<blockquote>

<p>I have had good results in late September as well as the first 10 days in October. Any suggestions for the 2012 season?</p>

</blockquote>

<p>I go annually and the middle of that period will yield useful conditions. If you must plan ahead for timing of travel, this is a pretty safe bet. If you have flexibility, the foliage network website has been pretty accurate in its reporting. I note that for near peak is best since leaf drop (which is also reported) isn't as prevalent. I refer to the site along with weather forecasts to determine when to go. I try not to be scheduled for too much during that time so I can actually go when desired. In any event. I have never known the first days of October to be bad.</p>

<p><br />Chatter on the adkforums site can be helpful along with other discussions current and archived.</p>

[joseph_nathan]

<p>I've been trying to predict fall color timing for years, since I live in California but travel to the northeast every 1-2 years. After tons of experience and research I can safely say there is no way to predict fall timing before September. There are a ton of factors that determine timing - from summer weather, to weather the previous spring. But in my experience, 80% of the timing is dependent on SEPTEMBER weather. That said, I think a couple of factors favor an early change this year. The early spring could tempt trees to stop making chlorophyl earlier than normal as they'll simply run out of steam so to speak. If the drought in the midwest continues to creep into the northeast this could be another strain that could cause early leaf drop. But despite all of this, a warm September will still make the trees hold on. In any case, the last few days of September to the first few of October is a pretty safe time to see color in the Adirondacks, or at least, what color there is. Remember, the 'Dacks are a heavy evergreen region and you won't find the lit up hillsides the way you will further east in the Greens of Vermont. Good luck!</p>

[AlanKlein]

<p>I've used this web site for foliage report in different parts of the country. They track the foliage change through each season. You can also look back at the foliage reports for past years.</p>

<p>http://www.foliagenetwork.com/</p>

[dotty_waxman]

Thanks so much for all the responses. When I review my images from many fall trips to the "Daks", they seem to be at or near peak any time from Sept. 28 to October 10th with almost no leaf drop. The last couple of years have been compromised due to the really bad drought throughout the summer. This summer is looking to be a similar situation. So many of the foliage websites seem to have cookie cutter predictions & "current, real updates". Let's hope for brilliant colors. Fortunately, the park is so huge that we can simply chase the colors.

 

Hoping to find some new ponds.