Trade-up now or wait?

[lou_miller]

I have a year old 20D that I would like to replace with a 40D. I can sell the

20D today for $450 (I have a buyer) and I beleive I can get a 40D today for

$1299 versus waiting a month or two in hopes that the 40D price drops( risking

the 20D price dropping further). What have historical trends on new Canon

cameras suggested relating to price drops this close to introduction? Also,

do you think that the 20D has hit a plateau in pricing on the used market?

 

Thanks

[andrew_viny]

In my personal oppion the price of the 40D will not drop significantly for a year-two years.

As far as your 20D goes.... I am unsure. I don't think it will drop much lower than that so

long as the 40D's price is still high. This is not fact so please get a second oppion before

deciding but that was my expirience with the 30D.

 

~Andrew

[elliot1]

I have seen the 40D on eBay in the last month for around and even under $1000 (numerous auctions).

[John Crowe]

I think the 40D will drop faster than your 20D. Just look at Canon's history from as far back as the 10D. I have not been watching 40D prices south of the border but up here in Canada the 40D dropped $250 in 2 months but I know this includes the fact that our dollar has reached par with the USD.

 

 

I think you can expect to see the 40D for under $1000 USD at the major US retailers by spring. Your 20D will only drop about $100 USD.

[images_in_light_north_west]

New price for 40D has not changed at B and H and I would not expect it to for maybe another 8 months

[mrossi]

At least in Canada Canon currently has some interesting rebates where the more things you buy WITH your camera, the more rebates you get. Worth looking into at your shop?

[alan_myers]

I agree, don't expect 40D prices to drop for quite a while.

 

Hard to say about the 20D, there will be some variation I'm sure. Check used prices on B&H, Adorama and KEH, but realize they are often a little higher than "street/auction" prices, since they offer a short warranty on their used items and sometimes service them before selling. You can also search auction sites for sold 20D, to see what they are bringing on average. Those will normally not be warranted and may be more toward the low side of pricing, depending upon volume. You can also look at 10D and 30D prices, perhaps get some ideas from those, too.

 

Regarding $1000 and under 40D on auction sites and elsewhere...

If you see any price on 40D below the $1299 US (body only) list price, I'd be very, very suspicious.

 

Retailers are selling all they can get at the list price. Some even show 40D out of stock from time to time. So they have no reason to discount it and cut their profit margin suggesting that any discount price you might see is probably a scam of some sort. There's further incentive for them to not discount a hot selling new item before Christmas. Maybe after the holiday, but even then I'd be surprised.

 

If less than list price, it might be:

 

1. Grey market.... Which means bought who knows where and imported through non-official channels... Usually there is no US Warranty, possibly the paperwork and manual in languages other than English.)

 

2. Return/refurbished, demo/display unit, open box, etc. In this case, with such a new model I would think most retailers would only discount a little bit. This may be a good deal, actually, especially if the full manufacturer's warranty is still in effect. However, if it was returned to the store, I'd have to ask myself why.

 

3. Missing bits from the kit, which will be offered to you separately at very high markup to make up for the reduced price on the camera itself. This is becoming all too common a scam.

 

One case for legitimate sub-$1299 prices at auction might be a lightly used camera being resold by an individual for some reason... They decided to get another model instead, they've maxxed out their credit card, the rent is due, etc.

 

Another possiblity is someone buying a camera and lens kit, splitting it up and selling them separately. But they would need to ask something close to the list prices on both, to make it worthwhile doing this.

 

Just be very cautious. Check feedback on anyone offering an auction at a crazy low price!

 

If I were in the market for a 40D, I'd go through a legitimate dealer and try to get the kit that includes the 28-135 I.S. lens (which sells separately for around $400 normally). This kit sells for only $100 more ($1399) and you can very likely resell the lens and recoup some $250-350, reducing your net cost on the camera body. Quite a few people here have said they've done this successfully. There have been a lot of brand new 28-135 - which are decent performing lenses, BTW - crossing eBay, Craigslist, etc. recently.

[KenPapai]

"I think you can expect to see the 40D for under $1000 USD at the major US retailers by spring..."

 

That will NOT happen. Not by a longshot, especially considering the weak US Dollar.

 

So sell that 20D and buy the 40D -- it's a hugely improved camera over the 20D/30D.

[._._z]

The 40D might fall to $1200 when a 12MP Rebel comes out, but don't expect much more of a drop. Buy now, or spend $1.9k for a 5D replacement in the spring.

[colinsouthern]

I'd sell the 20D now. I'm also wondering how long it's going to be before the 20D2 - oops, I mean the 30D - starts to push the 20D even lower.

[lou_miller]

Thanks to all for your answers. I think I will pull the trigger now. I like the idea of defraying the cost by buying the 28-135 IS kit and ebay-ing the lens.

[delwyn_ching]

If you can sell your 20D, go right ahead. However, price won't come down significantly as history has shown for Canon SLRs so you might want to wait for Canon's rebates. There's one around April-May time frame and one in the fall. Usually the one in the fall give's you double the rebate. I bought a 5D during a fall rebate and a 24-70L lens. The initial $250 rebate for the 5D doubled to $500 plus I got a $100 rebate for the lens (a single rebate was $50 for the lens). If you can wait for the fall rebates, that is. The spring rebate may be only a single rebate but it's better than nothing.