Canon Upgrade of 1Ds Mark II

[robin_odland]

I am wondering if anyone knows whether canon has any plans to upgade

the 1Ds Mark II, like they did for the 1D Mark II (i.e. the new 1Ds

Mark II N).

 

I would love the larger screen in the 1D Mark II N. Since it is

roughly the same body, it seems like a fairly simple upgrade.

 

Thanks in advance for any insight on this matter.

[phule]

Canon certainly knows. Canon certainly wouldn't tell anyone if/until they release a new product.

[gary_ferguson1]

Photokina, the world's largest photo fair, takes place this September in Cologne. There's plenty of forum conjecture that a 20-24MP replacement for the 1Ds Mk II will be announced then. These rumours are based around Canon's historic replacement cycle, and applying the pixel densities being achieved elsewhere to the full frame format.

 

In reality no-one outside of Canon has a clue what's coming, but rumours are a fun and harmless way of passing a Sunday afternoon!

[rdkirk]

Actually, at the last Photokina, two Canon execs revealed that the "next generation" of 1D would be a single high-speed, full-frame camera. One of them said it would come in at $5000.

 

I was dubious of such a price decrease until they released the 5D. Now it looks very possible to me.

 

The fact that they merely "refreshed" the 1D Mk II at the time that their normal cycles indicated a new model adds more weight to the possibility that it will be merged with the 1Ds at Photokina.

 

Neither said it would be 20+ megapixels--that was probably less predictable then. In fact, if their higher priority is to drive down the price, they may produce merely a more refined camera at only 16-18 megapixels...and a lower price with a greater profit margin.

 

I'd certainly expect the camera to have the larger LCD. I doubt they would neither raise the resolution or lower the price--I expect them to do one or the other if not both.

[steve_dunn2]

<p>As well, if they're going to merge the 1D and 1Ds as they've said, the replacement has to be capable of doing both jobs. That means it needs not only high resolution but also frame rate around the same ballpark as the 1D. The need for speed could limit the resolution somewhat.</p>

[mike_broderick]

There are some recent comments by Chuck Westfall that cast doubt on the 22 MP upgrade idea (though I'd always accepted the notion myself till the interview appeared). Apparently getting the pixels below a certain size increases noise to a level Canon considers unacceptable.

 

That still doesn't rule out an upgrade. It could be similar to what Canon did with the 1D MkIIn.

 

Unfortunately, I don't know the answer, and nobody who will post here does know. If you're thinking of upgrading to a 1Ds2 now, and your current camera isn't meeting your needs, I'd upgrade. But as long as your current camera is meeting your needs, I wouldn't upgrade regardless of what Canon does with new camera bodies. If you're more "human" than that, and feel an emotional urge to upgrade, I think waiting for the Fall announcements is justified.

[gary_ferguson1]

"There are some recent comments by Chuck Westfall that cast doubt on the 22 MP upgrade idea"

 

That's interesting, could you point us towards the original quote?

[bobatkins]

Using the pixel size of the 20D/30D Canon could make a 21MP full frame sensor with the same noise performance as the 20D/30D.

 

I think Chuck's comment was that going an even smaller pixel size could result in a noise increase.

 

Personally, I'm not sure Canon will increase the pixel count on any 1Ds upgrade. First, image quality is already superb. Second, there's nobody else in sight with a full frame 16MP 35mm body, so they really have no competition in that market. If fact there's nobody else in sight with a full frame sensor of any pixel count. Perhaps they'll go to a 1Ds MKII N model?

[._._z]

<i><blockquote> if they're going to merge the 1D and 1Ds as they've said, the

replacement has to be capable of doing both jobs. </blockquote> </i><p>

 

They may come out with a beefed up 30D to fill the 1D niche.

[rdkirk]

>>Personally, I'm not sure Canon will increase the pixel count on any 1Ds upgrade. First, image quality is already superb. Second, there's nobody else in sight with a full frame 16MP 35mm body, so they really have no competition in that market. If fact there's nobody else in sight with a full frame sensor of any pixel count. Perhaps they'll go to a 1Ds MKII N model?<<

 

Of course, in the fun avocation of speculation...

 

The only thing they would have to worry about is Mamiya or Pentax actually coming out with something at $10,000. If a professional can afford $8000, he can probably afford $10,000, and from what I've seen, larger pixels count.

 

But there are two things I'd bet big money Canon is able to do:

 

1. Lower the price substantially. Since the 20D, Canon has boldly bragged about how they have been able to lower prices through engineering efficiency. Indeed, they have done so.

2. Increase the full-frame throughput substantially. By Photokina, the Digic II will be a full two years old. If Moore's Law applies to anything, it applies to digital processing. I'd be surprised if after two years of effort, a Digic III isn't at least twice as fast as Digic II.

 

They may not increase the pixels--they never said they would. But one exec did say they would lower the price, and two said they would speed up the the full frame throughput.

 

A $5000 1Ds--at 8fps and 16mp--would pretty much kick everyone else in the groin. The $25,000 Hassie, the $10,000 Mamiya, and even the $4999 Nikon.

 

A couple of really sharp wides wouldn't hurt, either.

[bobatkins]

I think you're right. Lowering the price and increasing the frame rate would make a lot more sense than adding more pixels.

 

The only thing Canon have to avoid there is competition with the 1D MK II N - unless they drop it or adjust the price.

 

Fighting with medium format digital backs for image quality is probably a loosing battle. Bigger sensors with more (and bigger) pixels will always win, though cost is an obvious issue there.

[mike_broderick]

http://www.imaging-resource.com/NEWS/1140633307.html

 

Above is a link to the Chuck Westfall statements I mentioned. Bob is correct that he indicates going below 6.4 micrometers (I thinkt hat's right) pixel size would increase noise unacceptably. I've been told elsewhere that that would mean it would be hard to increase the number of megapixels on fullframe past 20 or so. This isn't too far off Bob's estimate of 21 megapixels.

 

I'm skeptical that Canon would come out with a camera with "only" a 25% increase in megapixels--Given that the 1Ds mk2 has no real competition now, I wouldn't think it would be worth the bother and expense, especially if it compromised high ISO performance at all.

 

So I'm skeptical we'll see a shocking revelation in the next 1-series body. More likely a Mk-2 N-ing of the 1Ds2. Which I think is pretty much what Bob has now said! :-)

 

Like Sergeant Schultz, I know NUTHINK of Canon's actual plans, the above is purely my uninformed speculation, guessing, with a bit of wishful thinking on top for flavor.

[dogbert]

I am not sure Canon will want to drop the price of its products, especially in an area where everyone seems to acknowledge that they face little competition. For it to be a sensible, the revenue lost through cutting prices needs to be more that made up by increased manufacturing efficiencies and sales. When one considers that at least some of their sales will come at the exspense of their own 5D sales, it becomes even less sensible for them. But who knows maybe they will make up through increased sales?

[vandit]

I agree - the next big release in the 1 series is going to have a slight increase in megapixels (18-20, say), full frame and all the fast frame rate benefits of the 1D Mk2. (This is a camera I'd snap up in a heartbeat!).

 

Also, over time, the 5D will become a lesser/cheaper version of the 1D (just like the EOS 3 was a lesser/cheaper version of the 1V). This gives full frame shooters 2 options.

 

I m not sure if having the same pixel density on the FF camera as a 1.6 crop camera is a good thing or no. On one hand, it lets you have the benefits of both FF and the crop factor (if needed) - OTOH, the bigger sized pixels do have better dynamic range (my 1D2 is far less likely to blow out highlights than the 20D). We'll have to see, I suppose.

 

What I am curious about is whether they will have a higher-end model in the 1.6 crop setup - something doing 8fps, weather sealed, etc - for the people who want the crop factor. Given that the 30D is already up to 5fps, I doubt it.

 

Vandit

[jonathon]

...so can anyone do the math on what Chuck's 6.4 micron in full frame equates to in megapixels?

[bobatkins]

I already did. Read my post above. 21MP