The future of film, film cameras and film processing labs

<p>The problem with the whole digital-film argument is the "religious zealots" (on both sides). Seems to me that the digital zealots believe technology is the answer and trumps everything, while the film zealots refuse to admit that digital can match film and has some advantages. Well, to me its simple - you can like digital, you can like film, you can like both, it doesn't matter - both will take wonderful pictures (if you have any talent). But the like religious zealots that try to force you to convert, the digital or film zealots have to PROVE to everyone that their choice is superior. Interestingly, you never see any photographs from these people, only super-enlarged sections of some rather boring image "proving" their viewpoint. They don't seem to realize that the camera is just the tool, and the final image is what matters. I don't know if they ever take any good images in fact - they seem to spend all their time proving their choice is superior!<br>

jZ</p>

 

<p>Ruminations of doom, even well-intentioned ones like Carlos's, make me want to scream.<br>

Film and film cameras (in some form) will be selling long after every one of us writing on this forum is dead (although the business names might be different, and the market more concentrated in terms of numbers of manufacturers). Why? Because film photography is more than a niche market, and there will always be a supply side when there is a demand side. In other words, when Kodak decides to bow out, Kojak will undoubtedly step in; the opportunity to sell something to tens of millions of people around the world will not be forfeited to doomsday thinking. In fact, Kodak has increased its film marketing efforts to developing markets like India, Brazil, and China, where cheap and throw-away film cameras are much more affordable than the cheapest digital cameras for sale here in the USA.<br>

Consider:<br>

- in fourth quarter 2008, Kodak's revenues from its film-based businesses were $650 million dollars<br>

- there are some 35,000 business locations in the USA that offer film processing services<br>

As a parallel example, consider the market for LP recordings. There are no fewer than 106 manufacturers of turntables, ranging in price from about $75 to over $100,000 (according to audiotools.com). In 2008, sales of LP records were up 89%, to 1.88 million (according to Nielsen Soundscan). Film sales, on the other hand, were about 200 million rolls in 2007.<br>

There will always be a slightly insane dreamer who will step in to sell something when no one else will. In other words, when the law of supply and demand ceases to govern daily life, then film will disappear from the market. To quote Arthur Jensen from the movie "Network", "It is the international system of currency which determines the totality of life on this planet." Supply and demand. Get it?<br>

http://www.americanrhetoric.com/MovieSpeeches/moviespeechnetwork4.html</p>

<p>I love the smell of D-76 in the morning! It smells like victory! As a dedicated film guy, 7 Nikons, 14 lenses aquired over 32 years, I will enjoy film as long as it is available. Film is not better or worse than digital, it is what I prefer. </p>

<p>I think black and white has a future- it is relatively easy and "artistic" (although see below)- but I am not at all certain that C-41 or E6 labs will remain commonly available (I am not sure they really are at present). The kits will probably survive for quite some time, but I am not sure they will survive very long. </p>

<p>It is also possible that black and white photography will become even rarer, as in my opinion one of the reasons for its power in the past was that it was the only kind of photography one could do easily at home. Now it kind of lives on as a sort of nostalgia and most of it will be digital, but I do think that self-conscious artists will continue to use trad B&W as a real silver print is still special to art collectors (at least for the moment). </p>

<p>I still shave my face with a straight razor. The straight razor industry is doing just fine. There are still a number of razor manufacturers going strong, and plenty of accessories and consumables still being made. Talk about a niche!</p>

<p>The film market will shrink. Kodak may disappear. We might end up getting film from sources that aren't as popular today but are well-managed business that have the staying power to take up the market share that the quitters leave behind. Consider that for a moment. If the film industry shrinks to a quarter of its current size and the big players bow out, the small guys stand to do better business than ever if they can outwait the bigger manufacturers that really need high revenues just to make payroll.</p>

<p>Just keep shooting, stock up on spare cameras, stock up on your favorite films. Nobody knows for certain what the future holds, but if enough of us are still shooting, someone will be out there to make some cash from that market.</p>

<p>I'm not worried about the availability of film cameras being around for a long time. Not, when my late World war 1 cameras are still working! Maybe B&W will last far longer than color. Since, it is easier for the hobbiest to develope it.<br>

Also, Patrick is right about the electric cars and Trolleys. PBS showed the documents where GM, oil and tire companies bought out many of the street car lines, just to close them down and replaced them with buses.</p>

<p>I am with Mr. Vener. Sadly it is the market that will decide. I can not find a lab in Quebec city to process slides anymore. In small markets film is dead.</p>

 

<p>I know this is anecdotal, and I guess I'm the exception, but I always find it strange that despite all the doom and hand-wringing I am happily using film exactly the way I was 15 years ago: order bricks of Velvia from B+H or Adorama, shoot ten or twenty rolls over a few weeks, and ship it off to the Slideprinter for a two-week turnaround. Film is about $2.00 more per roll, and processing has gone up $0.50. If I'm in a hurry I can spend another $1.00/roll for local quality processing by either one of two labs in my city of 75,000. Honestly, if I had no other contact with the outside world I would never suspect film was dead, dying, or mortal. This could all change next week, but for now my energies are better spent trying to make better images than sweating over the state of the industry.</p>

<blockquote>If you allow the industry and the mass market tell you what everyone should be doing, you end up in situations like our current auto industry. Gasoline and rubber tires successfully killed early electric vehicles and trolleys, and now all this time later a whole lot of people are realizing that it wasn't just a mistake, it was an orchestrated attack on the American consumer and manufacturers of electric cars and trolleys. And now we are in a position where the entire industry needs to be turned upside down, but there isn't room in the consumer language for electric cars and trolleys yet, because of all those decades of negative propaganda by oil companies worked so well.</blockquote>

 

<blockquote>

<p>Also, Patrick is right about the electric cars and Trolleys. PBS showed the documents where GM, oil and tire companies bought out many of the street car lines, just to close them down and replaced them with buses.</p>

</blockquote>

<p>

<p>In addition to photography, one of my other hobbies is transportation history. The "GM killed the trolleys' theory has been pretty much debunked by most serious historians. While it is true that General Motors and several other suppliers were behind a company called National City Lines which acquired a number of street railway systems and did oversee the conversion of most of those rail routes to motor buses, the theory fails on a number of other levels, not the least of which is the fact that almost every other non NCL-owned railway system in the U.S. also converted their trolley systems to buses at the same time. I could go into a lot of additional detail about this subject, but this thread is obviously not the time or place.<br>

Carry on.</p>

</p>

<p>Anybody see Kodak's results that were announced? Not a pretty picture.</p>

<p>Carlos and all,<br>

I use the "film is dead" to my advantage when scouting the local pawn shops and other stores. They look at me like I'm insane and then remind me that a friend of a friend just told them that film will no longer be manufactured in a year (or two). I usually get a good deal on that soon to be obsolete film camera.<br>

In regards to the post(s) regarding fountain pens . . . well, they are alive and well. I would encourage you to check out The Fountain Pen Hospital in NYC. I used to buy, repair, and sell vintage fountain pens. Parts are readily available. Talk about a niche! Years ago a couple of doctors purchased the equipment and materials to manufacture ink sacs. Talk about a smart move. We couldn't wait to get our hands on those things and they could hardly produce enough of them to sell to us. Ink? Ummm, have you been to Staples or Office Max? They still sell it by the bottle.<br>

For those folks who can't find a place to process their film or even purchase film I would encourge you to send your rolls of film to a reputable film processing place. I've sent film to A and I in CA and have been quite happy. The same goes for film. Just order it from your favorite place! Some times it's cheaper to mail order the film then it is to purchase it from a drugstore. I like to order in bulk and know that I have film on hand at any time.<br>

Chemistry? Please check out Photographer's Formulary. They have an incredible number of developers, fixers, and everything else to choose from. In fact, I've gone to using their fixer and developer over Kodak's. I just like the stuff!<br>

Finally, anyone who has a passion for astronomy will recognize the film vs. digital debate as the goto telescopes vs. the non goto scopes. Wow! This was a raging debate many years ago. The gear heads would talk non stop about their latest computerized telescopes and the old timers (like me) would go on about how important it was to learn the basics of star gazing on a manual mount. In the end it didn't really matter. We were all looking at the same thing in the night sky.<br>

For me I love film and I will use it forever. It's a personal decision. However, I have a small digital point and shoot Canon. I carry this camera with me everywhere. Why? Because I'll never make prints from the photos that I take. I think of it as my "sketchbook." All my photos are uploaded to facebook where friends and family can take a look. However, when it's something very special such as my son's birthday, their music concert, a wedding, a special holiday I use film. I don't know, it's just me and my way of doing what I love to do.<br>

Just do what you love to do and don't worry about the future! Sometimes there's no logic to art.</p>

 

<p>Patrick Dempsey - I wish I had written that post. I couldn't agree more.</p>

<p>I have been thinking over this point in the last days. I also compared the situation in the area where I live in the last ten years. All in all I am less pessimistic today about the quick disappearing of film than I was two years ago. The visible effects are that many 1-hour minilabs have given up. Some adapted their machines to printing of digital files but quickly discovered that people do not print that many digital files. The other visible effect is that when travelling, I cannot find slide film at the local drugstore, and some slide films have been discontinued. Hence I must leave home with all the film I need or became an endless quest for a few rolls, like two years ago in Tenerife.<br>

On the other side, all the good quality labs that used to process film are still alive and thriving. I know a lab where on request they can process B&W with the chemicals you like. no problem in getting push&pull processing for slides. I also have no issue in getting film from my usual suppliers and I just discovered one whose mission is to "support analogue photography". I was there last Friday and I could not get all the rolls I was in the need of, because, they told me, they planned for a much lower demand. When my usual supplier of used equipment lists a modern autofocus film camera, like an F100, a F5, or a F/N80, it goes sold within days, sometimes hours. Everybody in the film business tells me the same story, they are tuning the business to serve a customer base of enthusiasts. Personal relationships are becoming important again, because maby enthusiasts like a good relationship with their supplier. Some of them told me that they believe the storm is over and the market has stabilized on lower but stable volumes.<br>

The people that can benefit from or like digital are already there since long and don't use film anymore, if you keept shooting film now, it is because you like it, and it takes more than a new DSRL or a new P&S to buy you in. All in all, based on the scenario I have been exploring, I am far more optimistic about being able to enjoy my favourite hobby now than I was 2-3 years ago, when I was planning to give up because everybody was telling me that film was going to be discontinued in 1-2 years and all labs will close followingly.</p>

<p>While all the professional associations agree that by 2010 film will be completely dead for professional photographers!</p>

<p>However, for lots of reasons, the hard core of fine arts and hobbiest photographers will keep film alive for some years to come. Kodak and Fuji have both spent multi millions in film development while knowing full well the the sales curve was well down and failing fast. They will keep this going until the sales become dreadful. At some point these companies will, no doubt, sell their coating alleys to somebody else. In the meantime, some of the Eastern European companies are able to make a profit with small volumes, not to mention some Asian companies.</p>

<p>I anticipate that we will have at least some films available, especially b/w films, for 25 or more years.</p>

<p>Lynn</p>

<p>I have a collection of many film cameras. They are all in great condition, so I do not worry at all about not having a decent camera to use in the future.<br>

About film production and processing, I guess everything just have to concentrate to some factories and some labs in some countries. Maybe, there will be a place in Europe, one in America and a few in China. Shipping will be an issue but not too tough because shipping will be improved a lot worldwide.<br>

Some of your favorite film types may be gone while some other new and better types may come out.<br>

Maybe slides will be used more and more to print the digital images from DSLRs and to be projected.<br>

Then there will be a need for new film cameras for younger generations. Some other countries (like China) may take over the camera business of the Japanese.<br>

Digital backs may be available so that our new cameras can use both film or digital sensors because they may have to compete to survive with film cameras<br>

All that may be true or may be not, but I am not going to worry about it</p>

 

<p>I am a die hard film user and am optimistic about the future of this medium. As has been said her before, no ned to hash out again ad naseum the film vs digital discussion. I love film because I love film. The most discouraging news which affected me deeply was when kodak stop making the HIE, but Efke stepped in and made a similar though not equal product; then Kodak introduces the Ektar line which is a very impressive product. I am 50 years old and am convinced that I will be shooting film for the next 50 years and will find an ample supply of equipment to meet my photographic needs.</p>

<p>I enjoy film and digital photography both. There are some things about each that are unique and appealing. Having said that, I hope film will live on. If it can't, so be it. Still, I enjoy the look and the process, if for no other reason than to still do something without a computer, and to know that my pictures will be around longer than the hard drives the digital ones are stored on.</p>

<p>Many technologies that are no longer commercially viable live on. I read the other day about a new boat for the Americas Cup (in a court battle right now) out of San Diego that can sail twice the speed of the wind and go 40 knots. </p>

<p>I'm sure that 100 years ago there was lots of talk in all the harbors about steam replacing sailing technology, yet here we are with the best boats in history sailing the oceans today. Not for commercial purposes anymore, just because people love the process. Maybe film will survive in some similar way, or maybe it won't, but the people who will decide are the photographers who will choose to keep it alive.</p>