Mirrorless migration, pro shooters, and other stuff

[mark_amos]

<p>...but don't race car drivers talk about cars. Pilots talk about planes. Violinists talk about violins. Gamers talk about computers. Bands talk about mixing boards, and I bet Rembrandt talked about paint plenty.</p>

[eric_arnold]

<blockquote>

<p><em><strong>Mr Arnold: "You remind me of people who claim climate change is a hoax, or religious fanatics who despise science and refuse to acknowledge its existence"</strong></em></p>

</blockquote>

<p>yeah, that's a pretty ridiculous comment, especially because there is no evidence whatsoever of a mass migration, and no quantifiable way to identify those who have not only bought into mirrorless, but completely switched systems altogether. In fact, that comment is such an overreach, it undermines whatever argument it's attached to, and ironically misses the point that i'm actually making the case for scientific or data-driven evidence over speculative assumptions. it's simply off-base to mistake anecdotal evidence for hard data, especially when you are extrapolating a relatively small sample.</p>

<p>i think it's been pretty well-established by now that for pro photogs to switch systems, they would need a compelling reason to do so. Since resolution isn't the be-all and end-all, it can't just be extra pixels. The lack of complete lens sets for Sony's FE and E mounts is actually a reason not to switch. Now if we're talking about non-pros who have switched, we get a different set of criteria. For some it's size/weight, for others compatibility with adapted lenses. For others, it might be frustration with Nikon's perceived lack of development of APS-C lenses and abandonment of prosumer DX bodies, which plays directly into Fuji's hands.</p>

<p>Anyway, this debate has become pretty circular. There's not much else to say which hasnt already been said.</p>

[jordan_drake]

<p>Just thought I'd jump on to clarify some things in the video that started this whole thread. I’m the less charismatic guy in that video, and I also direct, shoot and cut TCSTV. <br /><br />Firstly, I think the perspective of many people regarding ‘professional photographers' is skewed. Whenever the subject is brought up, the first example of DSLR dominance that is brought up are wildlife and sports shooters. These are certainly the most visible photographers as they are often seen at sporting events and parks. They’re use of giant telephotos also tend to give them away. These are certainly subjects where DSLRs are still the better choice. However, most professional photographers don’t fall into either of those two categories. Portrait, commercial, events, travel, and lifestyle pro photographers are much more common, but less visible. This second group of photographers are the ones who can really benefit from mirrorless technology, and they are rapidly jumping into that world.<br /><br />I also think hobbyists tend to minimize one colossal shift that has happened in the pro market in the last five years. That’s the expectation that pros can deliver photos and motion for a single project. DSLRs are inherently worse cameras for this, as the finder cannot be used framing. Also, Sony and Panasonic are pushing the video quality much further than either Canon or Nikon. l hear the argument that pros stick to using dedicated video cameras, but a GH4, A7S II or A7R II will outperform and video camera until you hit the $7000 mark. Many shooters bought mirrorless for the video features, then just wound up using them for stills as well. This has especially been the case with the A7R II as it is cutting edge in both photo and video spec. If you can buy one camera that does both things, why have two cameras? This was the same thing that drove sales of Canon 5D Mark IIs and Mark IIIs several years ago.<br /><br />At the end of the day, all of this largely irrelevant, since what the video pointed out is what Chris and I are actually seeing on the floor of The Camera Store. Since the launch of the A7R II, we’re actually hearing from many of our working pros about how they’re selling their kit for mirrorless options. Not all of them are going with the A7R II, but I think the feedback on that camera has gotten pros to seriously look at mirrorless cameras in general, especially ones by Sony, Fuji and Panasonic. It used to about once a month we’d see a pro switch, usually between Canon and Nikon. Now, we’re seeing several a week come in, and almost all of them are going from DSLR to mirrorless. It’s true, our experiences are drawn from just one store, but we’re also seeing what’s going on right now, not months ago, as is the case with the CIPA data. <br /><br />Any other questions for me, let me know.<br /><br /></p>

[eric_arnold]

<blockquote>

<p>I also think hobbyists tend to minimize one colossal shift that has happened in the pro market in the last five years. That’s the expectation that pros can deliver photos and motion for a single project. DSLRs are inherently worse cameras for this, as the finder cannot be used framing. Also, Sony and Panasonic are pushing the video quality much further than either Canon or Nikon. l hear the argument that pros stick to using dedicated video cameras, but a GH4, A7S II or A7R II will outperform and video camera until you hit the $7000 mark. Many shooters bought mirrorless for the video features, then just wound up using them for stills as well. This has especially been the case with the A7R II as it is cutting edge in both photo and video spec. If you can buy one camera that does both things, why have two cameras? This was the same thing that drove sales of Canon 5D Mark IIs and Mark IIIs several years ago.</p>

</blockquote>

<p>You make some really good points, Jordan, and thanks for your lengthy explanation. With the rise of social media and particularly mobile phones as content platforms, video has clearly become more important. I see many more video shooters at events than i did even two years ago (although the majority of these folks are using DSLRs to shoot video). Combine that with the erosion of professional still photography for newspapers, and things like stock houses paying less or even making images available for free, not to mention creative commons platforms, and it's not hard to imagine further erosion of this field. So, the switch to video projects is kind of a survival move, one that has coincided with aggressive videocentric feature sets by some mirrorless makers, as you mention. So, i do see your point about consolidating gear which is already optimized to a certain degree for hybrid usage, however i dont think it can be said this is a hard and fast rule. If you look at the RX10, for instance, it's pretty capable for run 'n' gun video, but not as balanced for stills performance, particularly in terms of AF. There are pro video shooters who use a Canon C100 as their main rig, with a DSLR, mirrorless, or even iPhone for b-roll. Also a lot of people are using drones these days, which can be rigged with different types of cameras.<br>

<br>

So, i'm not disputing anything you said in your above post. What i objected to was the inference that there's a mass migration to mirrorless by pros which is quantifiable in any meaningful way, given the absence of hard data. That seemed like an exaggeration, and a hyperbolic one at that. No doubt the Sony A7 family is generating a lot of buzz right now, and pushing the innovation envelope in a lot of ways; in a few months, i expect the XPro2 and then the XT2 to also do this for Fuji. But as i said earlier, generating buzz doesnt equal a mass migration or takeover, and the amount of switching which would have to take place for mirrorless to surpass DSLRs is considerable, given current market share. It's somewhat telling to me that mirrorless sales have essentially remained flat for the past 4-5 years, overall.<br>

<br>

While the loudest buzz many be around the A7RII right now, we'll also get a new high-end sports camera (D5) from Nikon in 2016, and at the end of the day, if you are primarily a still shooter, the D750 and D810 are still excellent options, as are the 5DS and 7DII. Long lens shooters who need to travel light can also make a solid case for the various m4/3 options. <br>

<br>

What i'm most excited about is the continued development of technology, and the hope that some of it, like hybrid CDAF/PDAF, will extend across all platforms and that all this competition will lead to more and better options for consumers. My sense is that mirrorless is still a generation away from reaching some key performance metrics of DSLRs, mainly in terms of AF, but overcoming EVF blackouts could be a tougher challenge. Those are two reasons i dont really use my Fuji rig for serious event work, but for things like travel and hiking, there are definite size/weight advantages. Since i do shoot a lot of music concerts in poor lighting conditions, the A7S's light sensitivity appeals to me, but the f/4 zooms means you give some of that high-ISO goodness back, and furthermore, the AF-C performance just isn't there yet.</p>

[DickArnold]

So to talk about Jordan's point. I ran a business for several years where I did weddings, PR, portraits and newspaper

work including lots of sports. Though retired I am on my second mirrorless system. I had a studio and one could do

portraits with almost any system. I think the Sony A7RII would be fine for weddings which were my major source of

cash flow. The same is true I think for most PR work which for me was mostly head shots. As for the newspaper I did

most regular journalistic shots with a moderate zoom. However, tomorrow I will photograph at a large swim meet. I

am taking a big white zoom lens and a 7DII because I want a lot of keepers and I want to stop action. I like my new

M3 and it will go along for head shots. This in my humble opinion is evolution not revolution. In real life I managed

large scale scientific programs. I don't like fuzzy numbers and I try to refrain from unfounded speculation so I have no

prediction. Having done weddings as a sole proprieter without help doing both video and stills at a moderately large wedding is quite a handful to take on. It's not the actual photographing but the post processing that would be hard. I stayed ahead of my competition with a repuation for fast delivery of still product.

[jordan_drake]

<blockquote>

<p>So, i'm not disputing anything you said in your above post. What i objected to was the inference that there's a mass migration to mirrorless by pros which is quantifiable in any meaningful way, given the absence of hard data. That seemed like an exaggeration, and a hyperbolic one at that.</p>

</blockquote>

<p><br />I attempted to address this with my last paragraph. At the store level, we are seeing exponentially more system switching than we ever had in the past (with the possible exception of Nikon switchers when the 5D II was launched). Almost all of this switching is from DSLR to mirrorless. Our store may be an anomaly, but I suspect that when the next quarterly results come out, there will be a noticeable spike in mirrorless units sold. (Not units shipped, which doesn't help you know how many are still sitting on shelves). While we don't give out our sales figures, at TCS, DSLR sales are nosediving and mirrorless is way up. We tend to set trends at our shop, other stores will probably follow that lead shortly, if they aren't already.</p>

[david_smith110]

<blockquote>

<p>especially because there is no evidence whatsoever of a mass migration</p>

<p>What i objected to was the inference that there's a mass migration to mirrorless by pros</p>

</blockquote>

<p><strong>Eric,</strong> you do realize the first time the words 'mass migration' came up in this thread was by Peter Hamm in the second post right? Neither my original post nor my belief on the subject has ever supported an overwhelming majority of shooters, pros or otherwise, moving to mirrorless. It is simply there there are photographer changing to mirrorless in, as you often point out, non quantifiable numbers. But the change<em> is </em>happening and I believe it is picking up steam. Especially after hearing Chris and Jordan say what they said in the video.</p>

<p><strong>Jordan</strong>, thank you again for taking the time to post up your direct experiences here. Personally I do not believe you store is an anomaly as it mirrors what I have heard directly from my local camera store along with other types of media on the web. It was months ago when I had an in depth discussion with one of the salesmen about the two large camera showcases on the wall behind the counter. On the left were the new mirrorless models in all shapes and forms, from retro to modern chic. In the right case were all the same old DSLR's that seem to have been out forever. We joked about how it must have been a similar scenario back in the 80's when one case held all the old manual focus systems and the other case held all the slick new autofocus designs. The salesman then told me with all seriousness that almost all of their sales came from the mirrorless case and DSLR's were moving slowly if at all.</p>

<p>At the end of the day though we are all photographers and it doesn't matter what we shoot with as long as we enjoy what we do. But, as I have said multiple times in this post, I am very curious how all of this is going to effect Canon and Nikons serious mirrorless models when, and not if, they release them. I am curious if there has been any discussion among the patrons of your store, or any thoughts you may have, about Canon or Nikon and whatever serious or pro grade mirrorless they may bring to bear. Keep the existing mounts or forge ahead with new mounts and new lenses?</p>

<p>Either way, thanks again.</p>

[Allen Herbert]

<p>If there is a mass migration.....</p><div></div>

[Allen Herbert]

<p>From what I understand most photos are taken on one of these than any camera in the world. I also think for new users there is a keen interest in mirrorless cameras. Among pros a camera with fast autofocus, great low light capabilities, and the ability to auto focus with any lens from any manufacturer will be a serious option. I suspect it will be a reality in the very near future.</p>

 

[aplumpton]

<p>I am in a mild shock at seeing how good a print I obtained this week from a shot with a 7 year old Panasonic P&S (10MP) with a tiny sensor. 12 x 16 inches print with slight prior sharpening of the image in PS. It was a daytime photo which may be part of the reason. The framed print will go as a gift Monday to an employee celebrating his 30th anniversary in his post and was chosen over some I made with higher quality camera/optics. A mirrorless system camera like an A7 with full frame sensor does much better than My Panasonic P&S, of course, but I wonder if there is any chance of seeing an equivalent basic model akin to the M262 and much less costly, which will do the essential at high resolution for those not needing AF, video, multiple modes and other attributes. Can we foresee an A7RII without video and endless program features, maybe at half the price? DSLRs got big and heavy due in part to added features that are not always necessary (the 80/20 rule). Mirrorless has a size advantage, but is it inevitable that multiple features might not be sacrificed and a pro quality basic model be eventually available? In part and to answer my own question I imagine that the mass consumer market is not aimed at that goal, the M262 apart. </p>

[eric_arnold]

<blockquote>

<p>At the store level, we are seeing exponentially more system switching than we ever had in the past (with the possible exception of Nikon switchers when the 5D II was launched). Almost all of this switching is from DSLR to mirrorless. Our store may be an anomaly, but I suspect that when the next quarterly results come out, there will be a noticeable spike in mirrorless units sold. (Not units shipped, which doesn't help you know how many are still sitting on shelves). While we don't give out our sales figures, at TCS, DSLR sales are nosediving and mirrorless is way up. </p>

</blockquote>

<p>Well, that's interesting. It certainly can't hurt the A7RII to have gotten so much attention from DPReview and other Interwebz sites, but i wonder whether those sales will be enough to really see a discernable shift in what is a long-term market trend of flat sales. I'm glad that brick and mortar camera stores can still survive in 2015, but then we have to remember that most US camera sales are from Best Buy and Costco. I'm not suggesting TCS' results are an anomaly--that experience may be mirrored to some extent at dedicated camera stores--just saying that there are segments of the retail market which move a <em>lot</em> of units of entry-level DSLR kits. Obviously not to pros. What's interesting to me, though, is the shift to marketing high-end products to compensate for the slump in compacts. When mirrorless started out, its price point was in the lower range and there were no $3000 flagship bodies. So obviously, you're targeting a different consumer with an A7R than someone who bought an E-P1 five years ago.</p>

<blockquote>

<p>But the change<em> is </em>happening and I believe it is picking up steam.</p>

</blockquote>

<p>Well, yes and no. I think there's more buzzworthiness to mirrorless than DSLRs these days, but that doesnt always translate to sales. And these things tend to ebb and flow with the release of new bodies and lenses. It's got to be terrifying to camera companies that smartphone cameras are becoming more capable. I do know a guy who works at Samy's who scooped up an A7II recently. But he didn't go all-in on lenses and he also didn't dump his Canon gear.</p>

[Allen Herbert]

<p> "It's got to be terrifying to camera companies that smartphone cameras are becoming more capable.".</p>

<p>The real world. Whilst us enthusiastic photographers are discusses this camera/format and whatever....a revolution in photography is taking place much in the same way as the revolution with the advent of the 35mm camera.<br>

Think about it a device you permanently carry...always. A universal solution to all your media needs. A terrifying thought for traditional folk and for camera manufacturers. </p>

<p>Just another photographic tool for me along with my other cameras.</p>

<div></div>

[john_tran14]

<blockquote>

<p> at TCS, DSLR sales are nosediving and mirrorless is way up.</p>

</blockquote>

<p> <br>

Suppose the above information is correct (I dont work at TCS). That does not say anything about Pro-shooters (not that I care at all about Pro-shooters) because among the people who buy cameras at the store, the percentage of Pro-shooters is small. Of course, you did not assume that all the people who buy DSLRs are Pro and those who buy mirrorless are non-pro. I know many amateurs who buy Canon 1Ds and Nikon D4. On the other hand, there are many Pro who have no chance to touch a 1Ds or a D4, their main tools are something like a used Canon Rebel and a couple of Tamron lenses (and yes, they make money). In fact, I haven't known any Pro using a mirrorless (the poor Pro can not afford a decent mirrorless)</p>

[apdx]

<p>"When wireless is perfectly applied the whole earth will be converted into a huge brain, which in fact it is, all things being particles of a real and rhythmic whole. We shall be able to communicate with one another instantly, irrespective of distance. Not only this, but through television and telephony we shall see and hear one another as perfectly as though we were face to face, despite intervening distances of thousands of miles; and the instruments through which we shall be able to do his will be amazingly simple compared with our present telephone. A man will be able to carry one in his vest pocket.”<br /><br />Tesla in 1926</p>

[Ian Taylor]

<p>There is no "mass migration" of pro shooters to mirrorless.<br>

Seems to be a few in the wedding biz, but as a whole, no.</p>

 

[fotolopithecus]

<p>There's a very talented Pro on youtube "Jason Lanier who's sold on the Sony A7Rll which he now uses exclusively.</p>

<p>https://youtu.be/7wM_5nROeaw</p>

[fotolopithecus]

<p>I just thought I'd ad another link to one of his videos on the A7Rll.</p>

<p>