Nikon Product Launch Cycle Anlysis

[left_ayyones]

<p>Manufacturing complex electronic devices is a project-management-heavy process, and planning starts out very early. For many companies, it is easy to predict future release dates with a decent amount of accuracy by looking at the historical record. So you can look at Nikon's<a href="http://www.nikon.com/about/news/index.htm"> press release history</a> - I had some spare time, and I've been meaning to parse the data myself to have a look at any patterns (I know Thom Hogan has done similar analysis in the past, but I wanted to pull together the most recent numbers and go into more detail):</p>

<p><strong>Q: Is there a month-of-the-year pattern?</strong><br>

<em>A: Not really; releases are concentrated in July and August, but the dispersion is high.</em></p>

<p>Nikon announced cameras in just about every month of the year except May:</p>

<ul>

<li>September 15, 2010 - D7000</li>

<li>August 19, 2010 - D3100</li>

<li>October 14, 2009 - D3S</li>

<li>July 30, 2009 - D300s & D3000</li>

<li>April 14, 2009 - D5000</li>

<li>December 1, 2008 - D3X</li>

<li>August 27, 2008 - D90</li>

<li>July 1, 2008 - D700</li>

<li>January 29, 2008 - D60</li>

<li>August 23, 2007 - D3 & D300</li>

<li>March 6, 2007 - D40X</li>

<li>November 16, 2006 - D40</li>

<li>August 9, 2006 - D80</li>

<li>June 1, 2006 - D2XS</li>

<li>November 1, 2005 - D200</li>

<li>April 20, 2005 - D50 & D70s</li>

<li>September 16, 2004 - D2X</li>

<li>January 28, 2004 - D70</li>

<li>July 22, 2003 - D2H</li>

<li>February 22, 2002 - D100</li>

<li>February 2001 - D1X & D1H</li>

<li>June 1999 - D1</li>

</ul>

<p>Number of Occurrences (years) - there is a concentration in Nikon's 2nd fiscal quarter (Jul-Sep).</p>

<ul>

<li>Jan: 2 (04,08)</li>

<li>Feb: 3 (01,02)</li>

<li>Mar: 1 (07)</li>

<li>Apr: 3 (05,09)</li>

<li>May: 0</li>

<li>Jun: 2 (99,06)</li>

<li>Jul: 4 (03,08,09)</li>

<li>Aug: 5 (06,07,08,10)</li>

<li>Sep: 2 (04,10)</li>

<li>Oct: 1 (09)</li>

<li>Nov: 2 (05,06)</li>

<li>Dec: 1 (08)</li>

</ul>

<p>Fiscal quarters: <em>1st:</em> 5 - <em>2nd:</em> 11 - <em>3rd:</em> 4 -<em> 4th:</em> 6</p>

<p><strong>Q: Is there a body-type pattern?</strong><br>

<em>A: Yes, bodies are released in the following schedule:</em></p>

<ul>

<li>Pro bodies every 4 years on the dot</li>

<li>Semi-pro bodies every 2-4 years</li>

<li>Consumer bodies every 1-2 years</li>

</ul>

<p><strong>Q: What about pro bodies?</strong><br>

Pro Bodies - something new almost every year, full number jumps every four years (almost exactly):</p>

<ul>

<li>October 14, 2009 - D3S</li>

<li>December 1, 2008 - D3X</li>

<li>August 23, 2007 - D3</li>

<li>June 1, 2006 - D2XS</li>

<li>September 16, 2004 - D2X</li>

<li>July 22, 2003 - D2H (first D2)</li>

<li>February 2001 - D1X & D1H</li>

<li>June 1999 - D1</li>

</ul>

<p><strong>Q: What about semi-pro bodies?</strong><br>

Semi-pro bodies in the same series (D100/200/300) are released every 2 - 4 years. The development interval for the D700 is unknown, but given the rest of the data, it should be between the D100/200/300 series and the D1/2/3 series, so probably 3-4 years.</p>

<ul>

<li>July 30, 2009 - D300s</li>

<li>July 1, 2008 - D700</li>

<li>August 23, 2007 - D300</li>

<li>November 1, 2005 - D200</li>

<li>February 22, 2002 - D100</li>

</ul>

<p>The D700 came out about July 1, 2008, so based on these patterns, it is likely we will see an upgrade in the two year period between July 1, 2010 to July 1, 2012, most likely toward the middle-to-end of this period (3-4 years after launch). Nikon waiting the full 4 years seems unlikely, as this would imply that the D700/D800 is on the same development path as the D1/D2/D3, but waiting only 2 years seems unlikely as well for similar reasons.</p>

<p>So it is likely that we will see a D800 in mid-late 2011 - <em>unless</em> we get a D700x/D700s, in which case, the D800 would probably be pushed back into 2012. However, the s/x upgrades come either very near the middle of the interval (D300s, D70s, D40x), or are sprinkled throughout the interval in the case of the D2/3. We are already past the half-way point with the D700 (halfway between July 1, 2008 and July 1, 2012) with no s/x upgrade. The longer we go without seeing a D700s/D700x the more likely there will be a D800 in 2011 rather than 2012.</p>

<p>Using this same logic, we should have seen (will see) a D400 as early as August 2009 (we didn't), and as late as August 2011. The D100-D200 jump took 3.7 years, and we had a D300s released in 2009, so we will likely not see a D400 until mid-late 2011 as well.</p>

<p><strong>Q: What about consumer bodies?</strong><br>

Consumer bodies - every 1 to 2 years, depending on the 'level' of the camera: We went from D70/80/90/7000 in about 2-year increments. We went from D50/40/60/5000 in about 1.5-year increments. We went from D3000 to D3100 in a 1-year increment. Granted, this involves making some assumptions (e.g. the D7000 being the top tier consumer body and a spiritual successor to the D90 (if not the official or numeric successor, which it is NOT according to Nikon)). Nonetheless, a 1-2 year interval is prevalent, with 1 to 2 new cameras per year.</p>

<ul>

<li>September 15, 2010 - D7000</li>

<li>August 19, 2010 - D3100</li>

<li>July 30, 2009 - D3000</li>

<li>April 14, 2009 - D5000</li>

<li>August 27, 2008 - D90</li>

<li>January 29, 2008 - D60</li>

<li>March 6, 2007 - D40X</li>

<li>November 16, 2006 - D40</li>

<li>August 9, 2006 - D80</li>

<li>April 20, 2005 - D50 & D70s</li>

<li>January 28, 2004 - D70</li>

</ul>

<p>Fun stuff. Ultimately, it depends on Nikon's project management teams to get gear out on schedule, but they've done a pretty good job so far.</p>

<ul>

</ul>

[left_ayyones]

<p>Hmm, someone moved the post from the Nikon forum, apparently in less than a minute after I posted it. I guess my effort to contribute something was for naught. It's too bad the mods can't put the same kind of zeal into updating p-net's 'learning' and 'equipment' sections...</p>

[ShunCheung]

<p>Left, it was me who moved this thread. I think this very much is a casual conversation.</p>

[jwallphoto]

<p>It looks more like a soliloquy than a conversation, and I don't know who'd be interested in it other than Nikon folks.</p>

[wogears]

<p>The OP has failed to recognize the importance of the retrograde motion of Mars in Aquarius...</p>

[joseph_wisniewski]

<p>I don't think you broke the cameras down properly. Look at sequences within a class.</p>

<ul>

<li>D70, D80, D90</li>

<li>D1X, D2X, D3</li>

<li>D100, D200, D300</li>

</ul>

<p>There's no sequence for D3X or D700 yet, their classes are unique. And you can do the same thing with the D40, 50, 60, 3000 class.<br>

You'll find the intervals pretty constant within a class and are harmonically linked across the classes.</p>