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wuyeah

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I think the prices of all Leica lenses have increased dramatically. I have been away from Leica

for awhile until yesterday. I picked up a Leicas outfit on trade and ended up with 2 used

lenses instead of the new ones I would have preferred due to the high prices. (I didn't do my

research!)

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The dollar's been sitting relatively stable, having arrived at about this level months ago.

 

Today it bounced up due to sales of US Treasuries, which produced higher interest rates (which strengthens the dollar).

 

For the USD to fall further, US long bond interest rates would have to drop. That would happen if the market broadly. as well as the Federal Reserve Board, decided we were in a recession. If instead the US long bond rates rise (due to a perception of inflation rather than recession) the dollar will strengthen and Leicas as well as oil will get cheaper.

 

There's little causal relationship between USD and much other than interest rates, with the exception of warfare and political confidence. As we're already at war and political confidence presumably can't get lower, the dollar may stay stable or strengthen from here...if Bush somehow becomes more popular while staying rigid (less popular seems unlikely) the dollar will strengthen.

 

In the event of more serious warfare, USD will strengthen as USD is seen as a haven due to our relative political stability Vs that of Europe and Asia.

 

I think that if Bush started to become flexible the USD would weaken...but does that seem likely?

 

USD is today about $1.06 Canadian, Eu 0.73

 

http://finance.yahoo.com/currency

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Don't forget - the weak dollar has been good for both the export market and the tourism industry. I think the fed is of the mind that most of what is coming from Europe is primarily for the luxury market, while what is coming from East Asia (where the yuan and the yen are (artificially) weak right now) supply the more mainstream consumer market.
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The Chinese drive this bus now and they're not letting their goods become more expensive in their embassy's outlet store chain, that being Walmart. In other words, they're not going to let the yuan float free anytime soon, despite Bush's feeble pleading...there's no way it would help them.

 

As for European luxury goods... Leica and what else? German cars are made in Tenn and aren't equal to Toyota, also American. Nobody I know bothers much with Euro wines, surprisingly inexpensive despite the dollar's drop. California's still the game. Eurotrash disco outfits? Thank goodness for expensive Euro cheese.

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The Chinese are holding tons of dollars in their reserves so it is not in their best interests for the dollar to fall or the Yuan to rise against the dollar. They would have to sell off a lot of dollars first to minimize their losses if they were to float the Yuan but then the sell off could spark further drops in the dollar.
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