What are the chances of a 5D replacement being announced this month?

[mary_f2]

I really want a 5d, I'm considering buying it within the next week to get the

rebate. I would hate to buy it though if a successor is announced in 2 weeks,

what do you think the chances are? If a successor is announced, what do you

think the price range will be? Thanks!

[aaron_lam]

http://www.bobatkins.com/photography/digital/canon_predictions_2007.html

 

some say 1:2. some say 1:3. some say no chance.

 

We'll all have to wait and see.

 

 

aaron

[mkhan]

Mary,

 

I had the same question in my mind before I bought my 5D.

I wont regret even if a successor is announced in next April.

 

Thanks,

Mohammad

[steve torelli]

Nobody can answer your questions with any amount of certainty, only speculation, probably wrong. I would say if you want a 5D, get one. Even if it's replaced this spring, which IMHO, is fairly unlikely, it's a great camera. The eventual replacement, whenever it comes, isn't likely to be so much better that people will start looking down their noses at the 5D. Good luck.

[steve torelli]

Also, the rebates are good for another few days in the US, they expire after the 19th of this month. You can still get a 5D for around $2200.

[leicaglow]

I recently bought a 5D without hesitation. I don't need the latest and greatest, unless they bring out an equivalent camera in 18+ Mp, but that's not going to happen.

[gdanmitchell]

I'm afraid you must pay your money and take your chances on this one.

 

There is so far no solid information one way or another about a 5D upgrade. If you follow

these things you know that the thinking ranges from "it is time for the 5D to be upgraded"

to "Canon has other cameras that need to be updated first."

 

If you absolutely must have a full frame camera soon and cost is an issue, it is probably

better to not wait. Any significantly upgrade to the 5D (say with greater MP count), should

one be announced, would possibly not be available immediately or, if it is available, the

cost may be higher in the short term. (This is subject to some other unknowns involving

other cameras in Canon's lineup however.) The current 5D deal is pretty good... unless you

happen to believe that full frame 12MP camera prices are likely to go down soon.

 

If you are not in a hurry, definitely wait. If the 5D doesn't change, you'll probably be able

to get one for a price that isn't all that much different than the rebate price if you have a

little patience. If it does change, there is a fair chance that the current 5D may see a price

cut. If a newer model is announced and impresses you, wait awhile and pick it up.

 

In the end, it is a gamble and there is no right way to deal with this.

[les]

Mary, about the best thing you can do now is to get a 5D. Getting the latest and greatest always involves paying a hefty premium on...well, latest and greatest.

 

The thing to remember is: a camera is NOT an investment. The question you should ask yourself: is 5D good enough for what I want to do (I suspect it is, and if it is a good camera today - it will be equally good tomorrow)?

 

If the answer is "yes", then make sure you get all the rebates you can get on it - and start shooting + stop stressing. There will always be something better around. New cameras will be designed as replacements for older ones. So what ? This is a race you can't win unless you have unlimited budget.

 

In my experience, the following things are important in photography (in order of importance):

 

1) The ability to get up at 4:00 am to get good light at 5:00 am

 

2) Finding good location and an interesting subject

 

3) Good eye for composition

 

4) Quality of the lens

 

5) Postprocessing/general knowledge

 

6) Camera body

 

The next generation of 5D will not take better pictures for you - you will. I would get a 5D as cheap as I can (from a reputable vendor, that is), then I would forget about "the latest and greatest" at least for couple of years. But that's me, YMMV.

[bobatkins]

I'd go with 50:50, maybe 60:40 against.

 

If they replace the 30D and the 1Ds Mk II (which many people think likely), then I'm not sure it's likely they'd also replace the 5D.

 

Remember they have to have something new for the fall as well as the spring, so they aren't going to replace everything at PMA next month.

[steve_dunn2]

<p>You'll know by the end of this month whether Canon's new cameras for PMA will include a replacement for the 5D; rumour has it that the official announcements of what's coming for PMA will be made on the 24th. It is unlikely that Canon will announce this until the end of the U.S. rebate so you'll have to make your best guess.</p>

 

<p>If they don't replace the 5D, then buy a 5D and there will be no need for hate until the 5D actually does get replaced (which, if it isn't this spring, is likely to be this fall). If they do, you can choose between paying full price for the new camera or snapping up a 5D that is being discounted to clear out inventory.</p>

 

<p>The usual disclaimers apply. Anyone who actually knows the answer to your question cannot tell you the answer because they have signed a non-disclosure agreement, so anything you read prior to the official announcement is a rumour. And no matter what digital camera you buy and when you buy it, sooner or later something better will come along, so at some point you have to stop wondering if something better is coming and just buy the thing and get out there and use it.</p>

[mark u]

There was a long running rebate in Europe last year. Since the rebate ended, prices have come down such that it is cheaper than it was while the rebate was running. I don't think this is to clear the camera prior to a new model, because Canon have also adjusted down a number of lens prices by greater percentages, and those lenses aren't going to be discontinued. Instead, I think the adjustment partly reflects the weak yen and partly the fact that demand for DSLRs is quite price sensitive.

 

The UK price - now 1499 pounds - with no rebate is equivalent to less than $2,500 before sales tax - so I suspect the US price will come down to at least that level once the rebate dust has settled for a few weeks, even if there is no replacement camera in the short term. It's noticeable that Canon Outlet, the UK ebay seller for "refurbished" Canon gear has been selling quite a few 30Ds and 1D MK IINs lately - that does look like shedding some excess stock ahead of the announcement of replacement cameras. The flow of 5D sales is currently somewhat reduced compared with a month or two ago.

[PuppyDigs]

It's anyone's guess. However I think the 30D and 1D series will be upgraded first. The 5D still

has a lot of fire in its shorts and zero competition in its class. Maybe this Fall or 2008?

[eddie g]

58.74 %

[jim_larson1]

I agree with the reasoning above.

 

Both the 30D and 1D-IIn are overdue for replacement (the 30D was overdue for replacement about 5 hours after it was announced 12 monthes ago). It is unlikely that the 5D will be replaced now.

 

The real curiosity is if the new 1D-IIn replacement will be full frame. . . and if the 30D replacement will be more than a 30D with the XTi sensor (yawn).

[25asa]

What you could do is buy the camera now and leave the box sealed. Keep the receipt handy. If by the end of the month they announce something better, keep or return the camera. If you keep it, you may still have time to apply for the rebate since you bought it within the specified time.

[gdanmitchell]

<p>Leszek wrote: <i>"The question you should ask yourself: is 5D good enough for what

I want to do (I suspect it is, and if it is a good camera today - it will be equally good

tomorrow)?"</i>

 

<p>That is a common response to this type of question, but I don't agree that it is quite

that simple.

 

<p>Sure, the 5D will still be as good of a 5D in a month as it is today. However, if one

does not absolutely need a new camera right now, there is a realistic possibility (though

clearly not a certainty) that something with better/improved features might be announced

<i>soon</i> in this case. A short wait <i>might</i> turn out to worthwhile here.

 

<p>On the other hand, if one is cash-strapped and really wants to go full-frame, it

<i>might</i> be a good idea to take advantage of the rebate. (However, do read the

threads on the problems that folks often encounter obtaining their Canon rebates... and

decide if it is worth the trouble or not.)

 

<p>Again, we just don't know what the <i>right</i> decision is here. If someone takes

the rebate and gets the excellent 5D now, what is the range of things that might happen?

 

<ul>

<li>Nothing new is announced and the price goes back up. Buying the 5D was a great

choice.

<li>Something new is announced and 5D bodies are on clearance in a month. Buying may

not have been such a great choice.

<li>Something new is announced but it is only an incremental 30D-type upgrade. Maybe/

maybe not a good choice to have purchased now.

<li>Something new is announced that is very cool - 16MP, dust reduction, bigger LCD,

etc. but the price is higher. Hmmm...

<li>Canon repositions a full frame 12MP camera at a lower price point. Too bad you

bought earlier.

</ul>

 

<p>For me, the bottom line is that it is <i>probably</i> better to wait and see what

happens given that the time until announcements is so short.

 

<p>But I could be wrong... :-)

 

<p>Dan

[mike_broderick]

You've got plenty of answers, and I think almost all are very sensible, but if you want to read another, my guess is that if they replace the 5D before the 1Ds Mk II is upgraded, it would be a VERY minimal upgrade. The 30D is also probably due for upgrading, so I doubt the 1Ds MkII and the 5D will both be replaced this Spring, regardless.

 

You say you really want a 5D. If it were me, and getting a 5D or 5D-like camera was important to me, I'd get the camera now, get the rebate, and forget about it. I bought a refurbished Canon 1Ds at a good price about nine months before it was replaced, and have never seriously regretted it (I'm still shooting it, and expect to continue for at least a year more, maybe longer with it as my primary camera). You'll be able to shoot a good camera (like the 5D) for a long time, so you can figure on it being "replaced" regardless of when you buy it. If you can't stand that possibility, you'd be better off sticking with film, or else you'd better be rich!

[WM]

The 5D is a great camera whichever way you look at it, and I'd just go for it and have fun using the 5D, and never look back. Of course there will be the greatest and latest. It is just simple marketing and advancement in digital technology......plus Canon needs to make a profit to survive, hence the new models.

 

Apart from the price difference in which you will save getting the current 5D, the 5D is more of a camera than most of us actually needs. I am sure more than 99% of us are not pushing the 5D to the limit, where we feel that we actually need a better camera. We will always WANT a better camera of course. The 5D has 12.8Mp, which is a lot of pixels. It is also high quality pixels, and I am sure even with the new 5D out, the old 5D will still hold as having one of the best image quality in digital SLRs.

 

The thing is, would the new 5D get you better images than the old 5D ?

[dogbert]

" . and if the 30D replacement will be more than a 30D with the XTi sensor (yawn)."

 

I certainly hope so. While Nikon and Pentax have been pushing ahead and shown that they actually may have some photographers inputing into the design features, Canon's bodies look like they were designed by the surplus labour from the printer division. As far as I can tell the 30D is a warmed over 10D. Whatever happened to the company that got to be a leader through inovation?

 

I am certainly hoping the 40D has something exciting to offer, otherwise I think I'll blow this year's camera budget on a K10D.

[les]

"I am certainly hoping the 40D has something exciting to offer..."

 

Yep. Like a built-in library of good pictures or better still - direct Internet connection to National Geographic to download all the cool images whenever we feel like it.

 

Just kidding, so don't get on my case to hard :D

[mkhan]

Why canon will replace a 5D while its competitor doesn't have any FF in market? I don't think there will have a replacement of 5D in coming PMA.

 

Thanks,

Mohammad

[PuppyDigs]

"Canon's bodies look like they were designed by the surplus labour from the printer division."

 

I switched from Nikon because the operational logic didn't make any sense to me. Canon's

logic fit my way of thinking perfectly. I hope they don't change anything major. I would like

ECF on a DSLR, but that's it. The 5D is about as near perfect as it gets. However we all think

differently so it's nice to have a choice. Perhaps you should consider a D200 or K10 if Canon

falls short for you.

[tapas_maiti5]

Mary

 

The Canon 5D is limited by Canon Wide Angle lenses far more than anything in the camera.

 

I've tried most of them and the biggest image quality upgrade that Canon could make would be to bring out a range of slower, ultra high quality lenses.

 

Tapas

[steve_dunn2]

<cite>Why canon will replace a 5D while its competitor doesn't have any FF in market?</cite>

 

<p>Because the FF thing is a big part of its appeal but certainly not the only part of its appeal. The megapixel count is huge from a marketing perspective, even though a lot of us agree that a difference of a couple of megapixels isn't really that much in practical terms. If you've been here for a while, you'll recognize that there are a lot of people who ask "Should I buy body X or body Y" where both bodies are from the same manufacturer's product line (the 5D and 30D are often used in these questions, as are the 30D and XTi), which demonstrates clearly that Canon's bodies compete not only against other manufacturers' bodies but also against each other.</p>

 

<p>When it was introduced, the 5D had a 50% pixel count advantage over anything below it. 50% is a big deal. But it no longer has a 50% advantage; the body <em>two</em> levels below it has cut the advantage to 20%, and the body between those two will soon follow suit. With its megapixel advantage cut so drastically, the 5D either needs a big price drop or a higher-resolution replacement (which, in turn, would require a 1Ds III; otherwise, the 5D would be close to the 1Ds II's resolution and at a much lower price, and since the 1Ds is in large part a studio camera, many of its target users don't need the weather sealing and ability to survive bouncing off rocks and would gladly pay less for a high-pixel-count camera with the 5D's build quality).</p>

 

<p>There's a rumour that the 1Ds will get a bump to 22 MP or so. If Canon were to do that and replace the 30D for PMA, then the 5D replacement would come in the fall. Canon has proven in the past that it's quite willing to leave its lineup unbalanced for a few months (witness the lowest body having higher resolution than the next one up for the last few months) so this scenario is plausible.</p>

 

<p>But I have to sum up by advising you not to listen to me. I've been wrong more than I've been right when making predictions about what stuff Canon will introduce.</p>

[nilangsu mahanty]

One poster above, Tapas Maiti, made an interesting observation that the 5D user is limited more by Canon wide angle lenses than by the camera itself.

 

I have seen people bemoaning the same fact in many forums, and the more fastidious among them have been trying Zuiko, Zeiss and Leica primes (and even a Nikon zoom) with various adapters.

 

In my opinion, Canon need to make WA glass that is fit for the 5D, more than they need cosmetic changes to the camera itself.

 

Cheers,

Nilangsu