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PMA 2006 Announcements


ShunCheung

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For PMA 2006, Nikon has announced the 105mm/f2.8 macro with AF-S VR

plus several new Coolpix cameras. The 105mm VR macro rumor has been

around for several months, along with a 70-300 AF-S VR, which is not

announced in this round. While it is not surprising that no new DSLR

is announced since Nikon introduced 5 new ones in 2005 (including

the D2X). I am quite disappointed that Nikon has only one new lens

in the SLR category, and it is only a new version of an existing

focal length. Some badly needed portrait prime and wide angle primes

for DX type DSLRs are still missing.

 

Meahwhile, Canon announced a new 30D, which is still 8MP and overall

just a minor upgrade from the 20D. Moreover, Canon adds two lenses,

a new version of the 85mm/f1.2 and a new 17-55mm/f2.8 EF-S that

matches Nikon's 17-55mm/f2.8 DX. With a brand new small-sensor DSLR

and an EF-S lens, it is clear that the samll-sensor is not going

away any time soon even for Canon.

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As long as Nikon fails to deliver any pro-class DX primes, the Full Frame speculation can only continue. If they are serious about the DX format, there is no excuse for not delivering a fast prime in the 60-70mm range, and another fast prime in the 14-16mm range. Then maybe another one around in the 10 to 12 mm space.
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Why do people feel that the Nikon 85mm 1.4 is inadequate for portraits on a DSLR? I use my Nikon 80-200mm 2.8 for portraits on a D70 and it works well for me, except the weight and bulk of the lens. I don't own the 85mm lens, but I'm contemplating to buy it after I get the chance to rent it. And what would you improve in the 85mm 1.4 lens besides adding AF-S? And is AF-S really necessary for this lens? Of course, I might be off pist here ...
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Personally, I have little doubt that Nikon will introduce a 24x36mm DSLR before the end of 2007, and perhaps even in 2006. However, just because Nikon has a full-frame DSLR doesn't mean that everybody is going to get one. If I were a Canon user, I wouldn't be interested in the 5D because of its build quality and AF, and the $7000+ 1Ds Mark II is pretty steep, especially if you need to have two to have a backup. That is precisely why even though Canon has two current full-frame DSLRs, they are still introducing a $1000+, pro-grade 17-55mm/f2.8 EF-S for their higher-end, small sensor users.

 

In other words, some primes that match the DX sensor, i.e. 60 or 70mm/f1.8 or 1.4 and perhaps some 20mm/f1.8 or 1.4 DX will be in demand, regardless of whether Nikon has full-frame DSLRs or not. Any 20mm/f1.8 will pretty much have to be DX lenses with a smaller image circle. A 60 or 70mm/f1.4 can cover the full frame but you need that focal length to have a good portrait lens for the DX sensor.

 

Another trend is that the development of DSLRs is getting mature and improvements are slowing down. Canon can choose to change models every 18 months, but the changes are getting minor and most people will probably choose to upgrade in every other generation. By the same token, a year or two down the road, any improved D2X or D200 will not be that different from the current models.

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I definitely think the announcements from Nikon is not yet over. I certainly think 70-300 VR is sure to be announced some time around. Even I really don't understand the need of a 105 AFS VR lens. Nikon definitely need to put up some F4 series lenses complimenting 2.8 versions!. I love to have a 28-105 AFS VR, 70-200 F4 AFS VR!.

 

Aravind

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One reason people think 85/1.4 is too long for portraits is if they're doing studio work, they just won't fit in! Also, women often say they look fat when photographed from a distance.

 

Am I the only one who is excited about the 105/2.8 AF-S VR? If it's not too expensive I'll get one as soon as I can.

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I think it's pretty clear Nikon won't introduce the Dslr with a 35mm size sensor (I still think full frame is a misnomer since full frame to what) in any time in the next few years. My prediction is we will get D3H with a 10+ megapixel sensor and D3x will probably come with enhancements (such as better high ISO performance) and might be a slight increase in megapixels (I think 12.4 is pretty high given the current Dx sensor technology, but Sony just released a new sensor technology; so, you never know).
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That's a little too expensive but not <i>too much</i> too expensive. I may wait a bit for the price to come down.

<p>

Full frame? Nikon wouldn't introduce a single non-DX lens if they weren't planning on a FF DSLR since they dropped the film cameras except the F6. They're missing far too many lenses from the DX line to consider it a full line. Fast short and normal primes, PC lens, portrait lens.

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My first thought was like Shun's. They're slowing down due to 'buyer fatigue'. Comapnies can only play the 'next great thing you have to have so long' before buyers figure out that they don't need the 'next new thing.' Also, as additions are made market needs become fragmented - some want wider, some want longer, some want primes - some want zooms. When it was 'all' new, you could hit the hump of the bell curve and sell a lot of units. As you get farther out in the tails, the market is by definition smaller and less profitable (ROI). So I expect that we won'e see the churning from Canon nor the catch-up by Nikon because it exhausts resources.

 

Conni

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Very interesting announcements from Nikon I would say. I was just thinking about the 105 AFS VR Micro lens. Certainly from the specs, it sounds like the most feature packed medium length macro lens offering from any of the other brands. A 70-300 AFS VR would be great too. In fact, I like that idea of anything AF having SWM and VR in them as long as the cost factor isn't ridiculous. I do agree that in cases there is no need for VR, but AFS is great.
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The biggest anounement from Nikon is that we now have another letter..."N"...Add this to DX, ED, G, AF-S, AF, AF-D, AIS, AI, P.

<p>

Did I forget any?

<p>

Really, though, if you're pretty well set with the gear you have now, this looks like a good year to skip Nikon's new offerings, including the D200.

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I was expecting Canon to release a new DSLR that would be targetted against the D200... 30D? but based on the specs for the 30D, it seems that the D200 is still on top. How likely is the release of a Canon 30D gonna affect the price of the 200D? What do you guys think? You know I haven't been this excited about a Nikon DSLR for a long time... except for the D2X which I clearly can't afford.
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The lens spec in feature wise is absolutely phenomenon, but a big disadvantage I can think of is how to effectively control the apertures with your existing F3, F4 which are well known bodies for micro works as you need to be able to manage apertures all the times. I��ll keep using my old version 105 2.8 AFD for awhile for sure.
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