Sony The Beast

[zeyad_almajed]

I tried to post this question elsewhere but got errors..

 

I am predicting the 2007 Sony DSLR (the 2006 will probably be a

branded KM).

Facts:

- Sony currently makes sensors for Nikon, with a high pixel density

(D2x is APS-C with 12 MP) good noise handling.

- However Sony wants a 20-25% DSLR market share placing itself in

cmopetetion with Nikon as well as Canon.

- Sony has a long partnership with Carl Zeiss

- Carl Zeiss already introduced manual focus lenses for Nikon mount,

designed for digital (but was it designed also for excellent

performance on full frame digital?)

 

Could it be possible that:

- Sony DSLR of 2007 will have a full frame 20-24 MP sensor with same

technology as the D2X ones, just a full frame size?

- With Zeiss lenses? designed and tested for the smaller pixels of the

full frame sensors?

- With a Autofocus, Anti Shake and focal plane shutter, accessories

etc of Minolta?

- Zeiss also gets out a full frame sony sensor for the digital version

of the Super Ikon ?

 

Scary! I think that would definitly get Sony the 20-25% share, and

maybe more.

Would Nikon then position itself for aquisition by Matsushita? Or are

there less competetive agreements between Sony and Nikon?

[marbing]

As I understand the arrangement, Sony and Konica-Minolta were already collaborating on a dSLR project. When K-M decided to get out of the camera business altogether they sold the designs to Sony. K-M keeps all of their patents but grants licence to Sony for the technology. The initial dSLR is scheduled to appear in the Summer of 2006 and will carry the Sony brand but will roll out of the K-M factory. Eventually, some K-M employees will be transferred to Sony but, for the moment, K-M is building the camera for Sony. Sony will certainly supply some of their electronics but the details are not known yet.

 

The camera will use the Konica-Minolta lens mount and will be compatible with existing K-M lenses. There won't be a specific Zeiss lens for the dSLR (although there are M42 - K-M mount adapters which would allow the new Zeiss S mount lenses to work).

 

If I were to make a speculative guess, I would exepect to see the same 10Mp sensor as we have in the Sony R1...but, who knows.

[basscheffers]

No way, José. Even in 2 years time a FF sensor with that many pixels will cost way too

much. Could it make a dent of 25% in the market of the 5D/1D/D2x? For sure. But not a

share that big over the whole DSLR market.

<p>

Sony has two markets: mass-market consumer electronics and professional video. Their

DSLRs will be simply that, mass-market consumer items. They'll offer something good for the

discerning users for sure, but the share they are after is that of the D50 and 350D.

[barefoot]

Why 'Sony the Beast'? Why 'Scary'?

 

The idea of a FF Sony Camera with Zeiss lenses sounds great.

[KenPapai]

LOL! And was Bas said -- a combo of a FF sensor DSLR with Zeiss lenses and 20MP -- no way will they even capture 5% of the FF market which Canon owns a 99% share in with their 5D and 1Ds2. Remember -- the minimal entry point here is over $3,000 for such a DSLR. Not that such a combo won't be a nice camera but SOny is the LAST brand that comes to mind when you think of an SLR.

[roger_smith4]

"Not that such a combo won't be a nice camera but SOny is the LAST brand that comes to mind when you think of an SLR."

 

It was also the last brand you thought of when looking to buy a video game system or computer, and then look what happened.

[zeyad_almajed]

Roger,

 

I agree. Who would have thought that Sony had any chance against Nintendo and Sega?

And for full frames to be very expensive? Sony has enough money to push mass production of a full frame sensors and SLR. If Canon can do it for 3000 USD, Sony should be able to do it.

[mark u]

I suspect Photokina 2008 will be the battleground for full frame offerings at more consumer friendly prices, although Canon has already pushed the retail price of the EOS 5D to about $2,300 US pricing equivalent in Europe now. It will be interesting to see what Sony make of their KM deal. The biggest incentive for them to move upmarket is that regular entry level DSLRs are the next sector of the market likely to suffer a commercial bloodbath of low profitability as prices get pushed to $500 and below. Even making their own sensors isn't going to help them escape that.

[peter_goodman]

As someone who is about to date oneﾒs self, I remember when there was talk that CDﾒs would not kill records. Most under the age of 20 have never heard of vinyl. Or 8 tracks. In 1992 I kept hearing how the government would never be able to ban AR-15s or AKs. For 10 years we had the Assault Weapons ban.

V-8s would go way of the Doo-Doo, Carburetion would never go away and fuel injection was way to expensive for the average car. Every house would have solar energy, every American would be riding a bicycle by 1995, oil would be gone by 1989, the Soviets would win the Cold war, blah, blah, blah.

 

Bill Gates reportedly said that all computers would never go over 512 Kbs, but now we see for sale hard drives that are in the Terabyte range, for money that is not too far out of reach of the average Joe.

I seem to remember that Digital watches were in the thousand dollar range at one time. Now you can get a cheepy out of a gum ball machine for 50 cents.

 

No way, José. Even in 2 years time a FF sensor with that many pixels will cost way too much. Could it make a dent of 25% in the market of the 5D/1D/D2x? For sure. But not a share that big over the whole DSLR market.

 

In about 10 years, a 40 Mp FF sensor will be trading on e-bay for about 50 bucks. Oh the joys of true capitalism. Competition will drive many of the new improvements, and the cost WILL drop. Just look at the DCS 460s. They now sell on e-bay for around 200-500 dollars depending. The DCS first sold for over 20,000 dollars new in 1996. Thatﾒs 10 years ago folks. Sooner or later some backyard engineer will make something new, find a buyer for it, and make it in China for about 30 cents. It will smoke the current level of digital sensors by leaps and bounds, and the future will be something else.

My biggest prediction will be: dare I say it: A Full Frame Medium Format of a true 6x6?

Think it wont happen?

 

As for Cannon holding the market, ever hear of Plymouth?

How about Oldsmobile?

Hudson?

 

Sony has two markets: mass-market consumer electronics and professional video. Their DSLRs will be simply that, mass-market consumer items. They'll offer something good for the discerning users for sure, but the share they are after is that of the D50 and 350D.

I have said it many times now: Sony will probably make a James Bond crappy item, with the trappings of a Pro-SLR. Their Pro end market is usually for those who are in Industry. Not small businesses. However, they seem to be hinting at a Nikon-Cannon Pro market. We shall see now wont we.

Not that such a combo won't be a nice camera but SOny is the LAST brand that comes to mind when you think of an SLR.

Good point, but remember. With true capitalism, it might not be Sony who does this. Whoﾒs to say some young up start, or an old company wont do it just to spite Sony?

[mag_miksch]

This are big words from Sony, they have never made a SLR in the past and the market for dSLRs is controlled by Canon and Nikon and the upcoming outsiders Olympus and Pentax/Samsung, Fuji has its reputation, some love Sigma, more SD10 were sold then KM D7.^^

[roger krueger]

It'll be a while before Sony builds an FF. The only reason to build a tiny market share

camera like that is for prestige, to make your semi-pro $1,000 and $700 cameras look

better. They need to have a bigger share than KM currently has for it to be worthwhile.

 

This is a point that Kodak seems to have utterly missed--they had the high end market

totally sewed up in the 90's, and it never did a darned thing for them, because they never

built a semi-pro line to capitalize on it. Since it wasn't helping them, it lost resources,

which led to the whole high-end effort going splat with the 14n fiasco.

[oceanphysics]

<i>Most under the age of 20 have never heard of vinyl.</i>

<p>

Since I work at a university, I spend a lot of time with people under 20. I assure you that every last one of them has heard of vinyl. The record store in the adjacent "strip" even carries some. New.

[oceanphysics]

<i>Bill Gates reportedly said that all computers would never go over 512 Kbs</i>

<p>

He never said anything like that. He's not stupid. What he did say was something along the lines of "640K ought to be enough for anybody." It was in reference to the original IBM PC design, which only allowed for 640K memory, even though the 8088 chip it was based on could address a full gig.

[bobatkins]

Sony aren't all powerfull. Just look at Betamax.

 

I seriously doubt they'll take on the high end DSLR market, nevermind win there. Minolta (even with Konicas help) couldn't do it. I don't see Sony doing it either.

 

It would take some really serious effort and some unbelievably good cameras - and lenses- to make even a small dent in the high end market share of Canon, nevermind Nikon too.

 

I'm sure they'll be a player in the low end consumer DSLR market but I suspect they'll be another Pentax/Olympus, not a Canon/Nikon. Their real market is the combination ZLR/video market. Some sort of integrated high quality still and video electronic camera.

[zeyad_almajed]

Bob,

I think you are right, they do have a history for failed intros. And the low end DSLR market makes perfect sense for them. But do you think they will continue to license newer sensors to Nikon?

[marbing]

OK, I will demonstrate my advanced age...because I was using computers when the first IBM PCs came out (Anyone remember the Commodore PET?).

 

When the original IBM PC was developed the chip could address 1Mb of memory space. However IBM needed to have protected memory space for any expansion cards (video, Hard Drive controller) and they decided to take the top 256K. The remaining 128K was eventually used when Intel developed Expanded Memory cards.

 

So, it was IBM that determined that people whould have only 640K on the original PCs. Just as a comparison, my original Commodore PET had a total of 32K RAM and, at the time, the salesman tried to convince me that 'Nobody was going to use 32K of RAM' and I should get the 16K version. But I wanted the full sized keyboard...hehe.

[bill_thorlin]

The Sony press release on the "takeover" of KM stated they would concentrate on "relatively inexpensive models that could achieve mass market appeal". It also included "would like to achieve 20-25% of the market but this would not come about in next 12 months or indeed 18 months"

 

Always amazed by the way that what is actually said promptly gets forgotten and is replaced by ( wild ) speculation.

 

Bob - "Minolta ( even with Konicas help )" - I honestly do not think that Konica who appear to have been the driving force in the KM link up had any intention of doing anything to help. The first ( now buried ) 5 year plan after the link up forecast "photo-imaging" to in the end account for 10% of turnover and less than 2% of profits.

[john schroeder]

The only way Sony could even hope to capture 25% market share is by producing a DSLR kit in the $400.00 range. I don't see Sony doing that any time soon. Sony cameras have consistantly been the more expensive than the competition, though very well made. Sony has also consistantly failed to produce a prosumer camera with the right feature mix. My prediction for this year is that Sony will still get it wrong. Samsung has partnered with Pentax and entered into the market with DSLR. Samsung also reached a licenceing agreement with Konica/Minolta. No details were released other than it involved core technologies. I can't find the article on this but if I'm mis-quoting somebody will correct me. I don't think Nikon would position itself to be aquired by anyone. Nikon is a small company but is doing very well.

[john schroeder]

Beware the beast Sony, for he is the Devil's pawn. Alone among God's cameras, he kills for sport or lust or greed. He will murder his brother to possess his brother's technology. Let him not sell in great numbers, for he will make a desert of his market and yours. Shun him, for he is the harbinger of death. <br>

<br> Oh the drama!<br>This is just a jab and should not be taken seriously.

[KenPapai]

Look, Sony has little to zero chance to suceed here. The question concerns full frame (35mm sized equivalent, or 36x24mm) sensor DSLRs. Sony has no chance there. By the time Sony has a FF DSLR the entry point will be well above 16MP. Consumer Uncle Joe cannot handle files that large. It's for pros and hobiests/advanced amateurs only. This market is completely owned by Canon and its EF lens line up. Sorry Sony! (and good luck Nikon)

[Brian]

Canon is dominating the US market with a line of DSLRs based on 35mm film SLRs and its home-made CMOS sensor. This is working for them at the moment but the next new thing round the corner may just wipe them out. Technology has still got a few tricks up its sleeve. Somebody already pointed out what Sony did in the games console market. I see the future of cameras being in the hands of Sony, Samsung and Panasonic. I've got nothing against Canon - I'm just not emotionally attached to them like some people here.

[andrew robertson]

I don't think Sony will go straight for the high end. And besides, all we have at this time are

some PR releases detailing some nebulous plans, and this sort of situation is well known for

going any way but the planned way.

 

I think it'd be great if SOMEBODY made a high quality full frame camera, if only to force

Canon to make a better and cheaper one, but I don't think Sony is the company that will do

it.

[marbing]

I don't think Sony will go for the high-end. The digital camera industry is based on the mass of non-professional 'mom and pop' snapshooters. The market is HUGE and, now that it appear that Canon is withdrawing from the point and shoot market (to concentrate on only dSLRs) Sony can move in to pick up the market share that Canon is leaving behind.

[lex_jenkins]

A paradigm shift could position Sony at the top and they wouldn't ever have to produce a single SLR.

 

I suspect the major focus will be on producing digital video cameras that can also produce top quality stills pulled from the video. As a still photographer by choice, I think this would be a huge headache in terms of efficiency, altho' fast computers and highly efficient software could ease the burden. But I'm betting it will become extremely popular among the average consumer, a necessity for professional photojournalists and will decimate the market for non-SLR still photograph cameras. In five years I doubt we'll see many P&S still-only digital cameras left on the market.

 

This is the market Sony could dominate.

[Spearhead]

I agree with Lex for the most part, but I think there will still be a market for point-and-shoot digital cameras, dominated by cell phones. At some point, that will also go to digital video.

 

However, Sony is currently lagging in innovation and marketing, something that is constantly pointed out in the press, especially compared to Samsung, and secondarily to Matsushita. They have completely lost their dominance in televisions and portable music players, thanks to a total lack of understanding and vision. I wouldn't count on them for still cameas, and I wouldn't be surprised to see losing out in video.