ever-decreasing prices?

[matt_webber]

i've just won a finepix s7000 in a local competition (with this:

http://i7.photobucket.com/albums/y282/mwebber_82/Sydney/CIMG0666.jpg)

and have been able to cash it in for ﾣ300 at a local camera store

since it is of little use to me. However, this puts me in a position

to think about making the jump from my n80 to a d70s if i stump up

the other ﾣ400 for the kit...

 

my question is this. are prices of cameras like the d70s likely to

remain fairly stable, or is the technology still developing at such a

rate that 2 years down the line i'll kick myself for not waiting for

a better model or better prices? (since i have no urgent need for it

in the next year or so apart from general shots - saving for the next

big travelling experience!)....

 

any thoughts?<div></div>

[robert_m3]

The individual models tend to decline slightly but the big discounts only occur at new model

release time. And then the new model is usually better bang for the buck.

 

Considered a D50?

[dennisprice]

Matt, get out your planner/daytimer and write in the following phrase for each

December 20 in the years 2007, 2009, 2011, 2013, and 2015.

 

"Is technology still developing at such a rate that 2 years down the line i'll kick

myself for not waiting for a better model or better prices? "

 

You will probably be astonished at what will be available in ten years. Do you

really want to wait until then?

[jerry ting]

Matt, I could not agree with Peter more. I got my D1X used about 2 years ago and it cost me about $3000 (it was truely a bargain at that time). I just checked eBay and find a top condition used D1X can only sell for $1700-$1900 now. Do I have regrets? NO!! I have been using it almost every week since the day I got it and it has been creating so many wonderful images for me. So go ahead, get that D70s and start shooting. I am sure you'll be happy about making this decision. BTW, great image you got there and it deserves to win the competition.

[ShunCheung]

When I was in college, which was over 20 years ago, a professor told me a stroy from around 1970 when he was working in some science lab. They had just bought some computer and a few months later, the price dropped and an improved model appeared. One person questioned why they didn't wait a bit longer for the better and cheaper model. The simple answer was that if they used that strategy, they would be waiting forever.

 

Now some 35 years later, the same is true. If you wait long enough, we'll all be dead.

[george_stewart1]

My recomendation is to wait if you have no need-patience is a virtue! Digital is still in its infancy and cheap full frame cameras are probably about two years off! Also, I think that the 10MP chip in the D200 will migrate down to the less expensive cameras within the next six months. The D80 will be nice!

[mark newcombe www.mcnphoto]

Great shot of our bridge. Go digi it's heaps of fun.

 

regards

Mark

[robbie_caswell]

Ah man...how I miss Sydney! Please post one of Rushcutter Bay and the Opera House.

 

Cameta has refurbs D70(non S)for $650US. I got tired of waiting for the D200 and picked up one from KEH for the same price.

 

Why not Medium Format? I've seen whole Bronica SQ or GS system go for 600US.

[david_h._hartman]

It can be difficult to decide when to buy and when to wait. I

waited about two and a half years and saved several hundred on my

F4 and again on my F5. The money I didnt spend on these

camera bodies when the price was high was better spent on lenses.

I didnt wait quite long enough for my F100 and paid a few

hundred too much. I didnt have a choice but to wait for my

D2H. When I bought it on fire sale for $1995.00 I really would

have preferred a D2X. The problem is Id still be waiting to

buy a D2X . The D2H gives what I need most. Ill have to

wait for a D2X, probably for some time.<br>

<br>

My advice is dont buy in a hurry just because someone says

if you keep waiting youll wait for ever. This is poor logic.

You dont have to wait for ever, you are in control. Just

wait until your best judgement tells you its time to buy.

You'll have to accept some risk. Who knows the future?<br>

<br>

You ask about waiting two years for a better model and a better

price. From my point of view the better model just hit the

stores, the D200. Better price? You have to decide that for

yourself. Buying a D70s at $829.95 would not be well spent money

for me as the cameras features fall short of my needs.

Waiting for six months for the D200 would be more logical if I

didnt already own a DSLR.<br>

<br>

I have no idea what your income or budget is or if youll

have more expendable cash in six months but my advice within this

limitation is wait for a while then by the D200. The D200 is a

whole lot more camera.<br>

<br>

Good luck with whatever you decide,<br>

<br>

Dave Hartman.

[rjm photo]

David...how much were the F4s when they first came out?

[ShunCheung]

I paid $1450 for my F4s in 1990, about 2 years after the original introduction.

 

I buy a camera or a lens if I have the need to use them. If I don't have any immediate needs, I wait. In the digital era, it pays to wait. Just don't fall into the trap to wait forever.

[matt_webber]

thanks so much for all the responses. much food for thought.

 

while the d200 looks pretty darn flashy, the d70s has pretty much all the features i need as someone who likes to shoot a lot on holiday and occasionally in between (certainly not with weekly regularity, though increasing all the time!). I guess then that since the d70s is enough of a camera for my needs, where I am now is at the point of deciding whether to buy now or back-off until the price of the d70s drops a little. someone mentioned a d80 on its way. any idea when? that would presumably lead to a slight price-drop the d70s?....

 

i guess a year could make the difference of a �100 or so, but then thats less than 10 rolls of film to be developed....

 

any more thoughts to help me out with my argumentative inner monologues?!

[jwenting]

As said the price on the D70s won't drop until its replacement has been announced.

That will likely (given Nikon's release schedule for DSLRs over the last several years) be 2008 or late 2007.

At that time you're going to be thinking "I've waited so long just to buy an outdated model, let's wait a bit longer until this new camera drops in price".

That of course will happen a few years later when its replacement is announced, ad infinitum.

 

Buy when you have both the money and the need for something, don't wait because something better might be around the corner or because at some point the price may drop.

 

As you have no need THAT is a good reason to wait.

But you'll be in the same position in a year or two years or whenever of having to either wait for something shiny that's rumoured to be around the corner or buy something that might in a few years' time be outdated.

 

That's the beauty of manual cameras, they don't age :)

The X300 I bought almost 25 years ago is still in production today and sells for the same price I paid for it (the type number changed, not the camera).

[steve_muntz]

Nice shot! I'm never in a rush to go out and make a major purchase, but once I've done the research and decided that I actually need whatever it is, then I go ahead and do it. Will the D70s accomplish your goals? If so, then waiting for it's replacement will put you into an endless cycle.

 

I bought my Fuji S2 almost three years ago. It's still as good as the day it came out of the box, but newer cameras are better. I don't kick myself for spending two grand on a camera that's now worth about 1/3 of that because I've gotten so much use out of it. I don't have any plans to replace it at the moment either. Just because something newer is out doesn't necessarily mean that you have to upgrade to it.

[ShunCheung]

At least for the lower-end models such as the D70/s and D50, the days of huge price drops and major improvements within months are over. The current estimate is that prices will drop by about 10% a year. When the D70 was first introduced almost two years ago, it was $999. Now it is the "old model" and only maybe 25% cheaper and the improvements on the D70s are minimal.

 

IMO you are wasting you time trying to save another $50 or $100 (or Pounds). If the D70s meets your needs today, the chance is that it will still meet your needs a year or two down the road. And if Nikon replaces it with some D80 a year or two later, you'll only see incremental improvements.

[jwenting]

And I personally doubt you'll see a model in the same class as the D70s again.

It looks and feels pretty much like an interim model between the D100 and the (then in planning/prototype stage) D50/D200 split.

 

It's too close to the D50 in price, eating some of the sales from that, while being too close to the D200 in capabilities (for the low end of that market, people who don't need the higher resolution chip) thus costing that one some sales.

I've a feeling Nikon continues to market it more because it's a cashcow than because they're very happy with the market placement they have at the moment.

[briany]

When the D200 was announced I had a sudden rush of NAS lust and looked at what my D70 could get on EBay. Used bodies in top condition were fetching $700 (silly, since new D70 non-"s" were about that same price). Mine wasn't top condition but still could probably have gotten $600, to my surprise. Yeah, that's a drop of $400 over a year and a half from when I bought it for $1000, but the New price has gone down by $300 over the same period. So, the used price wasn't really much off the new price, which I think has already suffered its biggest drop and will now decline slightly until a new model comes out to replace it sometime down the road.

 

I made the same move as you, migrating from an N80 to a D70 and have been thrilled. Buy for $700 -- you can probably sell it used for $500 down the road, and for the price of 20 rolls of film, you'll have taken thousands of shots. If you're using the N80 and think that the D70 is enough camera for you, I assure you you're right. I stayed with my D70, realizing that any other $$ would better be spent on lenses or travel. Take the plunge; you'll never look back.

[tom_s.]

Technology will continually advance at a feverish pace. There will certainly be a better, newer version of whatever you buy, 2 years from now.

 

The questions you may want to consider are:

 

What type of work are you doing? What type of work do you want to do? Can your current equipment handle it? If so and you feel the need to wait, you may be able to.

 

However... suppose you do have a big trip coming up in a year or two. And you're planning to buy your new camera just before that important trip. WRONG! Buy it now. It'll take time to become accustomed to your new equipment and the entire process of using it. (from exposure through final print / final file) That's experience best gained through frequent use, in situations where you don't mind experimenting. So that's the argument for going ahead.

 

As for the costs you mentioned...

It looks like you're moving from a film SLR to a DSLR... do consider if you'll need new lenses to deal with the crop factor. And memory cards. And if you'll decide to, say, spring for a new flash. Those items add up quickly and absolutely need to be considered. It's not worth going into credit card debit over a hobby.

[robbie_caswell]

The D70 is basically the digital version of the N80 performance wse. Crappy viewfinder, slow autofocus, but picture quality is stunning. I think the D70 is venturing into the class of the F5 and Bronica medium Format systems. Pro quality image capability for a song.

 

Where is my picture of Rushcutter Bay, the Opera House and that other bridge (Madonna's bra?)

 

I'm dying to get back to Sydney.

[ned1]

If you wan't stable prices, then you SHOULD live in the past. Prices for a Nikon FG will probably never go lower than what they are now on ebay (about $30).

[photo5]

With the D200 out why buy a D70? Seems like everyone on this forum agrees the D200 is the F100 digital incarnate. Why "upgrade" to a digital N80 when you can really upgrade to an F100 digital in a D200?

 

I wasn't impressed with the D70 and sold it.

 

Dave (still shootin' with the old F3HP and my beautiful Canon Pro1)

[ShunCheung]

<I>With the D200 out why buy a D70?</I>

<P>

Being some $700 cheaper or roughly half the cost seems to be a pretty good reason to me. Othewise, with the D2X widely available, why get on a waiting list for a D200? :-)

[kelly_flanigan1]

I remember going to an IEEE meeting at a electrical engineering dept of a college to see the first Betamax or whatever in the mid 1970's. I think its cost was about 2 to 3 thousand bucks. The dogma blurb was "time-shift viewing". Beatmax came out a couple of year before VHS, and was technically better, but poorly marketed, and the battle was lost.

[photo5]

Betamax format was adopted by pro-video shooters and most commonly found with newsteams and their Betacams out in the field. So it didn't "lose" at all.

 

Dave

[robbie_caswell]

Decide what you enjoy shooting. Landscapes/long exposurepeople/portraits and the D70 will shine. Sports? Do yourself a favor and save for the D200 or get a D1X/D2H.

 

I had my first go with the D70 shooting basketball last night. Maybe two out of ten shots were barely acceptable. This was in an excellent lighting situation with high shutter speeds up to 500. There are ways around it like prefocusing and locking the focus on a particular point, but that is boring to me and you miss much of the action. Since I do it for enjoyment, I'll ply away until I can justify something better.

 

When I shot with my F100, only my timing was off and I got boring in focus shots. When I did blow the autofocus it was just missing the player. The CAM1300 Autofocus never let me down.

 

So choose wisely and correctly so you wont be frustrated. If sports are part of your likes, then wait for reports from sports shooters on how the improved Auto focus will work on the D200.

 

You have inspired me, with the bridge shot. I'm taking my Bronnie out tonight for a shot of a local drawbridge. Thanks for the inspiration.