Worried about the future

[james_baker6]

It seems like the entire world is rapidly moving into digital. Am I

going to be able to get Walmart,Walgreens etc.to even process 35mm

film in, say, 5 years??? Will all my classics be idle for lack of

film and processing ??? How bad is it going to get and how soon???

[jeffrey_lan]

calm down, Chicken Little. with so many film photographers in the art/hobby world, it's highly unlikely that film and chemicals will go away anytime soon. granted, you might not be able to get your film developed at the drugstore, but there are always photo shops and the possibility of doing your own developing (not difficult at all with b/w).

 

besides, there are still plenty of consumers who've yet to move to digital for whatever reasons they may have (expense, techno-illiteracy, etc).

[mike_elek]

There are a lot of 35mm cameras in the world -- more than digital. However, how many 35mm are being used is another story. Most likely the C-41 process will survive. I think the next film on the hit list is Kodachrome.

 

If you shoot b/w, then you'll have plenty of life in your cameras.

 

Traveling this past week, there seemd to be a 60 (digital)-40 (film) split on snapshot takers. And I saw a lot of film in different convenience stores along the way (although I didn't check expiration dates).

 

I think the digital and film markets are nearing a settling point, and the only new innovation in digital P&S seems to be anti-shake technology. Otherwise, the past four generations of digital P&S have brought nothing new to the table -- except a barrage of variations on the same bulbous designs. And the latest generation of digital SLRs was more about improving existing technology -- quicker startup, faster focusing, better fill-flash performance, etc.

 

Kodak does seem to be in a rush to shed its traditional film lineup.

 

I wouldn't worry about it. Even if Kodak abandons film, there will be plenty of other players. Heck, if you can still buy and process 110 and 126 cartridge films, then finding a a place to process 35mm will be a piece of cake.

[jay_capodiferro]

It is a valid concern for film lovers, but without getting into a heated discussion over this topic there is no factual answer. In my opinion, film will never die. There are far to many film cameras out there. They still make vinyl records....the record player is still around. Don't worry.

[jorn ake]

Ironically, the digital age makes reaching micro-markets much more effectively done, ensuring film's continued survival. The Internet means one maker of (perhaps esoteric) film products can reach all potential purchasers with little or no problem. Current examples: J and C Photo, Film for Classics and Photographer's Formulary.

 

But this conversation has been done to death over on the Leica forum. Let's go take some photographs, shoot some film, and keep the demand going.

[mark_wilson4]

Right on Jorn.

 

I am using Czech Fomapan, Croatian Ekfe (127), German Tura, and Italian Ferrania (126), as well as J&C 6.5x9 sheets. These guys must get stronger as the big players scale back.

[jonathan_stark]

I agree with Mike Elek, I think we're going to lose Kodachrome soon. With that in mind, I started moving myself to E100G last year and am pretty happy with it. Am shooting a mix of E100G and Kodachrome 64 now; I'm probably done with Kodachrome 200. I've got a local small lab who's committed to staying in business, and committed to supporting digital and traditional processes (film processing, scanning, wet printing, digital printing, etc.) He turns E-6 around next day, I'm lucky to have him around. He gets my C-41 stuff too, I've given up on department store mini-labs except for snapshots I don't really care about.

[Brian]

Far be it from me to criticise digital, but it may well be that after the initial excitement, the consumers will realise that if they want prints from their digital shots, it's going to cost them about the same as prints from film did, and the old film cameras may well come back into use. Digital won't go away, but it may level off and coexist with film. Apart from the joy of chimping, I don't think it offers a killer advantage over film.

[marbing]

I expect that we will see production of film and associated processing suppiles will shift to other countries. I would think that a Chinese equivalent of 'Kodak' will arise and keep producing a product that we can use.</p>

 

There was a time when Germany was the center of camera production but that moved East to Japan and has recently moved even further East to other Asian countries. Film production will also move east and, as we adjusted to buying our cameras from Japan...we will adjust to buying our film from Asian sources too.</p>

 

If you are worried about processing...don't forget that you can now get desktop film processing units that do not require a darkroom or special plumbing and don't require you to mess around with chemicals.</p>

 

<a href="http://www.phototherm.com/sk8rh.html" >Phototherm film processors</a></p>

[cfimages]

2 words.

 

India. China.

 

Roughly 40% of the worlds population live in these 2 countries. I was last in India in 2003, China (actually Tibet, but China likes to think they own it) in 2001. The foreign tourists, sure, there were plenty of digital p&s'ers. But for the local population, who are only now starting to see some benefits of globalisation in terms of the creation of a middle class, they are still mostly using film. And not even SLRs - cheap point and shoots for the most part. When I saw an SLR, it was almost always a cheap copy, or an old MF that goes for peanuts on ebay.

 

The entire western world may well be moving to digital. But, when the time comes that it's no longer possible/economic to have film developed in the US/Eur.etc, you can bet some enterprising entrepreneur in India or China will be offering quality processing, with maybe a 1 week turnaround. Not quite a 1 hour minilab (unless you live there), but they'll be servicing film for a long time to come.

 

It's going to take a long time for much of the developing world to even be able to afford a basic camera (when you only earn US100 a year or less, a camaera is the furthest thing from your mind). And when something like 80% of the world exist on wages ranging from nothing through to sub-western wages, well, there's a huge market out there just waiting to have enough money to be able to buy a camera.

 

There are more people in poor Asian countries (ie, not Japan, Sth Korea, Taiwan, Singapore, plus parts of Malaysia & Thailand), that own film cameras, than there are people in the US/Can/W.Euro. Film processing will survive - Fuji/Kodak et al cannot afford to bypass these customers.

 

And as long as they are providing for these people, ther'll still be places in the western world that will be able to do it.

[douglas_green1]

The problem with the Phonograph analogy is that now, the same caliber of Turntable that used to cost $100, now costs $500 while all other audio gear has gone down in price. And NEW Vinyl LPs cost $25 or so, when they used to cost $5 - again, all at the same time that other media has dropped in price. The simple reason for this is economies of scale. Once these items (like film) move from mass market to enthusiast niche market, they will see a similar rise in price. When foto processing for snapshots costs $1 per crappy 3.5x5 inch print, nobdy will buy them. You'll still be able to get pro film and pro processing services at a premium price, but that price too will rise, as there will no longer be a baseline commodity price that keeps the premium price anchored.

 

Ironically, while new turntables and LPs have soared in cost, it's a piece of cake to get a serviceable used turntable for $20 on ebay, and used LPs for $1. In both cases the shipping cost now dominates the actual value of the item. And of course, nowadays, a good film SLR like a Minolta x-700 or Nikon FG can easily be found for under $80 on ebay. And film can be gotten dirt cheap there too. Unfortunately, it's mostly post-dated, and that will certainly get worse.

[marbing]

I still have no problem getting flash bulbs for my classic camera flash guns...There is still a store in my area that sells them. I have a case of M2B and M2.

[h._p.]

I think that the argument that film will continue in China and India, more strongly than in the West, is possibly misleading. Digital cameras are cheaper to make in large numbers than any but the simplest film cameras. Where film has a major advantage is that you can divorce the storage from the camera, i.e. you can send the film off to be processed.

 

If the price of plug in memory cards continues to drop, as Moore's Law predicts it will, then SD or Compact Flash cards will become cheap enough to be used as film is at the moment. In the developing markets, that might encourage a model where 'digital film' is sold. There'd still be centralised photo-finishing, because the market penetration of computers will remain low for a considerable time, but the item being processed may well be a chip rather than a strip of gelatine coated plastic.

 

This doesn't imply that the same will happen in the West. Here, the model is that the consumer already has a computer, so selling a digital camera to go with it, is an obvious move. But market penetration by home computers in the West seems to have now stalled, going by the trade press. It follows, then, that the sales of digital cameras will also start to hit a wall. They'll continue to sell, and in larger numbers than film cameras, but the customers will be making second, third or fourth purchases, rather than first.

 

Of course, clever entrepreneurs may try the 'digital film' trick in the West, but I suspect that most of the people who don't yet have digital cameras will prefer to stay with film, simply because they feel more comfortable with it. That doesn't mean that the digital film model couldn't succeed if the pricing is right, just that it'll be a harder sell in the developed markets.

 

Certainly, in the UK, the largest photo chain, Jessops, appears to be sufficiently convinced that the film market will remain to put in new processing facilities at existing sites, which didn't previously have them. Cirencester in the Cotswolds only just got one at the beginning of the year and I've noticed others. Of course, their equipment will also print from digital - I don't think they're stupid!<div></div>

[william_barnett_lewis]

The kicker is in remembering about the future. Humorously enough, film will survive as

long as there are people who want to look at an image 20+ years from when it was made.

 

I've been dealing with micro-computers since the middle 70's. There are a good number of

people who did everything right and can still read thier documents originally made in

Electric Pencil. Many more can not.

 

Film sidesteps this. And that is why film will survive.

 

William

[david_m]

Digital already has pretty much taken over from conventional film. Look around you, everyone is using digital cameras. Camera stores sell digital cameras not film cameras. All the photo magazines have gone digital. Film, paper and chemistry is getting harder to find (they used to sell it at K-Mart!), more expensive and the selection less and less. Eventually the only film available will be from third-world countries. There always will be a ready supply of cameras on the used market and they at least will get cheaper and cheaper.

[walter_degroot]

lot's of the film area in stores , the lesser used sizes of film like 120, and obsolete 126,110,127 and disk, has been taken over by disposablre cameras in a variety of brands and types. every store has some kodacolor/fujicolor but tons of disposables. and they are all 35mm cameras! this keeps the wet machine busy.

[bhneely]

Craig,

 

It's interesting that in Tibet you saw more film cameras. I've lived in Kazakhstan for 6 months, shooting with a Hasselblad 501, and I just two days ago found a second lab in this city of 1.6 million that handles E-6 (never mind K-14), b&w and film up to 4x5. Most labs here are mini-labs that make even Wal-Mart seem like a palace of fine printing and about 4 in 10 don't handle film. It's difficult to find a new film camera, even 35mm, and most of the "pros" and wedding shooters use digital.

On the flip side, I can get a Kiev 6 for about $30, and I recently learned that a Beseler 45 enlarger can be had for $200 or so. And with winter lasting 6 months (three months of it waaaaay to cold for daily shooting), I'll have lots of time to work on my printing.

[rob_murray]

Looking at how few film cameras are around for sale in stores there is

not much interest in them. When canon can sell you an $8000 camera on a waiting list they wont put much effort into making cheap film cameras. I think we will see more stuff going away. Kodachrome is next. Kodak B&W paper just went, Velvia 50 is gone, AGFA is done for,

Contax film cameras may be history. Cant hardly find 100 speed film in the stores now, 3 of my local camera shops have closed, 2 of my

local E6 labs are gone now.

[dbonamo]

My 2 cents

 

You know one thing positive about film is that if it is well taken care of it could last forever, well at least a few generations. Heck people are still making prints from negatives that were produce over 100 years ago.

 

Film is a media that humans can read with out the aid of a machine, well maybe you might need a magnifying glass, but try to view a jpeg without a computer or electronic device. Of course there will be digital advancements and quality will get better. However digital is more affected by changes in technology, were as film has survived over 100years.

[Spearhead]

It doesn't seem that people making comments about Asia have spent much time there recently, nor have they read the statistics on what's going on there.

 

Also, if people are processing/printing at Walmart and Walgreens, I can't see that it matters much what they use.