roger_michel Posted May 22, 2007 Share Posted May 22, 2007 just when people want to buy leica lenses (or, perhaps, because some few people are buying leica lenses) they are suddenly in incredibly short supply. the tri- elmar wides are unobtainable. none of the dealers in my area have seen new 28/2.8s since before xmas, and rich pinto told me it is a multi-month wait for nocts. i tried hald a dozen ADs before giving up on finding a new 21 asph, finally settling on a mint used example (leica won't see any of those $$$). this seems like realy poor planning. couldn't someone in solms have predicted a rush on lenses, especially wides, once the M8 came out? by the time leica gets lenses in the pipeline, everyone will have invested in ZM and voigt lenses -- and have realized they are mighty fine even if not built to leica specs. what gives leica?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james mitchell dc Posted May 22, 2007 Share Posted May 22, 2007 I recently received by 28/2.8 ASPH from Leica's 30%-off program. I ordered it in late January or early February. They had a shipment (including mine) come in around Friday, 5/11, but I haven't noticed any go up for sale on dealers' websites. Maybe they have waiting lists siphoning them all off. Leica USA lost my 50/1.4 ASPH BP, and now I am on a waiting list for any version that becomes available. It took four months for the refund from Leica, and since then I have seen all versions for sale and have missed out on getting one in the foreseeable future. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobtodrick Posted May 22, 2007 Share Posted May 22, 2007 This is humourous. By co-incidence I had our local Leica rep in my office not more than 20 minutes ago and this very issue came up. Leica has been building, of late, just as many lenses as they always have. Even though you read throughout this site how bad the M8 is, it has sold very well, and many of these cameras have sold to new Leica users...users that don't have lenses. Leica doesn't have lenses at the moment because they have sold them all. The humourous part (IMO) is that when there is lots of Leica stock around people complain that the company is in trouble because they aren't selling product...now they are and people are complaining that they can't supply demand. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bill Blackwell Images Posted May 22, 2007 Share Posted May 22, 2007 Leica has had a self-destruct button for years. Ironically, when they push it (and they push it often), they manage to survive. I wonder though, how much longer their luck will hold out. If there is a master plan at Leica I can't figure it out. “When you come to a fork in the road, take it ...” – Yogi Berra Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andre_harrison Posted May 22, 2007 Share Posted May 22, 2007 Bill, your post would have been more appropriate before Bob's post, rather than after. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
johnny massey Posted May 22, 2007 Share Posted May 22, 2007 Which is another way of saying that finally they've managed to stimulate demand beyond their (perhaps modest) supply capacity. As long as customers stay on board, there is hope then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bill Blackwell Images Posted May 22, 2007 Share Posted May 22, 2007 Andre: Yes, perhaps. But I was typing my message at the same time Bob posted his rather enlightening remarks. In any case IMHO, the M8 alone couldn't possibly have accounted for all of Leica's current backlog. “When you come to a fork in the road, take it ...” – Yogi Berra Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
neilambrose Posted May 22, 2007 Share Posted May 22, 2007 <p><em>If there is a master plan at Leica I can't figure it out</em></p> <p>I think it's something like: invest in the development of new products; invigorate their stagnant market by winning new customers; explore new market segments; and sell as much product as the manufacturing process and retail channels can cope with. They'll know the master plan is working when demand far outstrips supply, and there are long waiting lists for product lines that a few years ago were stockpiled and unsold. :-) </p> Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ronald_moravec1 Posted May 22, 2007 Share Posted May 22, 2007 Leica makes lenses in batches as needed, usually once a year. If they sell out early they will make a bigger batch next time so they don`t run out. Ideally they should sell the last of last years batch run as soon as the lasest ones arrive. It is called inventory management and optimising lot size. Now if demand is higher than forecast, there will be shortages. Now the problem is the production CAPACITY to increase lot sizing. If they buy more machines and hire more people and demand falls off, that is also a problem. You won`t see it, but the balance sheet will show it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Troll Posted May 22, 2007 Share Posted May 22, 2007 This is the best news I've heard about Leica in a long, long time. In fact, almost the ONLY good news.<P>Now, when are they going to rip that damn silly filter out, and make a B&W only M8(B)? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frank_horn Posted May 22, 2007 Share Posted May 22, 2007 Then, there is the steady decline in the value of the US$. (Or, foreign precision products as a hedge against a declining dollar.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bill Blackwell Images Posted May 22, 2007 Share Posted May 22, 2007 I spoke with Tony Rose (popflash.photo) this afternoon and he seems to agree with the idea that the current lens backlog at Leica was created due to higher than anticipated M8 sales. Apparently there are enough M8 buyers (either new or returning to Leica) to cause the backlog. “When you come to a fork in the road, take it ...” – Yogi Berra Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
samuel_dilworth Posted May 22, 2007 Share Posted May 22, 2007 Let's hope this doesn't give Leica's directors the idea to bump the prices up even higher. Leica make very fine cameras and lenses, but management issues like this crop up all the time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan flanders Posted May 22, 2007 Share Posted May 22, 2007 It is amazing that so many of the denizens of this forum seem to know more about the management of Leica than do the managers themselves, notwithstanding that Leitz/Leica have managed to dominate the 35mm niche market for well over three-quarters of a century in spite of at least three changes in corporate structure and moving of their production facilities! Of course the world has never been totally bereft of 'Monday morning quarterbacks', but this particular enterprise seems to have attracted more than their usual share! Last year they were all cursing Hermes, then the lateness of the M8, next its operation, and now its shortage. Some self-appointed critics are hard to please! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rjm photo Posted May 22, 2007 Share Posted May 22, 2007 Faulty production forecasting and failure to plan for stepped up customer demand is not necessarily limited to the manufacture of premium cameras. In my business, the heavy duty truck industry, four or five years ago several major truck makers had factory lots full of incomplete trucks, some pushed out doors to wait for a full complement of tires or other major components to make them ready to ship to the dealers. Some trucks sat for a month or longer waiting so they could be completed and shipped. Industry wide, there just wasn't enough assembly components available to build all the trucks they had orders for. You would think that with just-in-time component deliveries from the major suppliers they would have everything on hand to build a truck when scheduled...not so. Industry shortages of bearings, wheels, tires you name it causes the same questions to arise - why a major truck manufacturer can't gauge demand over a longer period of time and plan their assembly needs and output accordingly. I guess the world is not perfect, in spite of all the experts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peteradownunder Posted May 23, 2007 Share Posted May 23, 2007 <i>ex perts </i> are drips under pressure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
roger_michel Posted May 23, 2007 Author Share Posted May 23, 2007 you just don't understand how big this gaffe is. leica could have gauged the demand for the M8 very easily just by looking at the paid preorders. and they had this info almost a year in advance. they should have anticipated high demand for wide lenses, including the wide tri-elmar THEY MADE FOR THE M8, and built up stocks to meet the demand. they are now losing a lot of sales -- forever. people's desire for the gear is at its greatest when they are in the store, buying the camera. six months later, there will be lots of distractions. they likely also (like me) will have bought used or bought a zeiss or voigtlander lens that they will be too lazy to replace. when you factor in the fact that lenses have almost TWICE the profit margin of the bodies, you realize what a serious blow this is for leica. i can't tell you how the reps and dealers are screaming about this. meanwhile, zeiss keeps cranking out the 21s. and they just got into the RF business yesterday!! sure you can say that this is good news for leica, but we'll see. lots of restaurants seem busy but don't make any money. in any event, even if leica shows a little profit, they could have showed a LOT more profit by planning ahead a little. this M8 moment could have been huge for them. one local dealer told me has 20 people on a list for tri-elmar wides and half a dozen people on a list for nocts. that's $150K right there, two lenses and one dealer. and that's just the tip of the iceberg. i really want to see leica succeed, but they can't keep shooting themselves in the foot. end of rant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brodeub Posted May 23, 2007 Share Posted May 23, 2007 They're betting that they have a captive market, low switching risk, and a relatively long product cycle for a digital camera. They might be right given the high level of total investment required for the M8 camera system. Brian. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan flanders Posted May 23, 2007 Share Posted May 23, 2007 See? I told you so! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
roger_michel Posted May 23, 2007 Author Share Posted May 23, 2007 but i think there is a high switching risk. there are more alternatives to leica glass than ever! and the product cycle won't be long relative to Ms of the past. my god, the typical product cycle of a digital platform is 6 mos. even if leica does 5 times better, they still will have lost a ton of money. and then there is the fact that their short term performance is crucial. if they don't show a profit soon, they'll be making nothing but binoculars -- at least if you believe the reports thatcome out of the board meetings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
35mmdelux Posted May 23, 2007 Share Posted May 23, 2007 It is better to have high demand and be out of product than to have low demand as has been the case before the M8. "It may be "new" customers creating demand?" Without statistical data I'd rather doubt this notion. I don't see anyone going into an unproven M8 as a first buy. More likely, the over-whelming majority of M8 buyers are the guys that sold off their M6s. As you know, the M8 requires a new lens strategy because of the sensor gizmo and that is why you're seeing increased lens sales. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
guy_mancuso Posted May 23, 2007 Share Posted May 23, 2007 Roger hit many good points but part of the issue is the M8 sold more than there pre- orders and it really comes down to supply and demand and at the moment there is a huge demand and not enough supply. But not knowing exactly how well the M8 would do i would bet Leica just stayed there normal course on lens building. If they built too much than they would be sitting on it. Any modern manufacturing plant works much differntly than in the past and do not stock pile anymore and inventory control is very tight. Of course this good and bad for leica but from a revenue standpoint and cash flow they rather have it this way than sitting on all there inventory. For that you can't blame them but it . Also points of new owners that never had leica m systems it is also very true many are new to the M system and that actually includes myself which came from canon , Nikon and leica R DMR setups and i have 10 Leica lenses and yes i am a pig on that but most new users if you average it all out most likely bought at least 2 new leica lenses. That is a pretty big number. And if you look at e-bay nd used stores today there are very few modern lenses out there in bulk. So new is the only way to go and even CV lenses are becoming very hard to get new or used like the CV 15mm you just can't find one new or used. Overall it is great for leica but hard on the consumer looking to make a purchase. Hell it could be worse i guess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bill_barton Posted May 23, 2007 Share Posted May 23, 2007 The Leica rep was in a store a couple of weeks ago and had to show the cameras with Zeiss lenses. Leica did not have any lenses to give the rep, with everything on backorder..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
roger_michel Posted May 23, 2007 Author Share Posted May 23, 2007 they cannot afford to be conservative and miss out on opportunities like this. the M8 was a make or break camera for leica. if it failed/fails, the company would/will not be around in a few years. they should have counted on success. there was no upside to hedging their bets. if they turn this situation around in six months, OK. however, if people still can't get lenses a year from now, it will spell disaster IMO. the fact that even the reps don't have display lenses and have to show people their cameras with aftermarket lenses -- when lenses are where leica makes the real money -- shows just how bad this situation is for leica. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bourdelais Posted May 23, 2007 Share Posted May 23, 2007 I have no patience with Leica's troubles or anyone else's. I want my Noctilux, my Tri-Elmers, and my 28mm ASPH and I want them all right now please. My only complaint about immediate gratification is that it tends to take so long. I registered for my IR filters two weeks ago. Like they have to make the glass? Hello? Don't get me going about how long C1 makes me wait to convert DNG's... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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