film disappearance

Who has official and reliable imformation, how long colour negative or slide

film will be manufactured? What types of film are discontinued now? (i am a

film shooter, my question is about FUJI and kodak films mostly.)

I'm not aware of any official or reliable info on the life expectancy of film production and if such a beast did exist I'm sure Kodak and Fuji would keep it to themselves. Like any other product, it will exist for as long as people want it and manufacturers can make money off of it. It's impossible to predict this.

Although I don't really want to start a huge film/digital debate, I think (I think) that colour film wont last much longer because ink-jet and the newer light-jet prints are getting so good that people are starting to take them seriously. Black and White film, however, will last longer, if not indefinitely, because no matter what people tell you, you cannot make a digital print that looks as good as a brilliantly made silver print. The paper may be getting there, but until the inks can start spraying silver on the paper... there's no contest.

 

I'd give colour print film another 5-7 years before most manufacturers give it up. Possibly even less for Kodak, seeing as they're always in financial trouble.

Kodachrome will certainly dissapear first.

 

Then E-6 slides. The good E-6 labs are folding one by one.

 

C-41 has at least 10 good years, since it shares R&D and production facilities with movie film. It's expected to be about 10 years until movie production goes consistently digital.

 

The B&W market is certainly shrinking, too, look at the trouble Ilford got into. However, it's less capital-intensive than color film.

Since you guys can see the future so clearly, what are the winning lottery number going to be? Ilford is doing so well that they are both re-introducing old emulsions and entirely new products. Fuji have publicly declared that they fully support film. Even Kodak have said that although they no longer make paper, they have no plans to discontinue any film in the forseeable future. Both Ilford and Kodak still make custom sheet film sizes twice a year, which sell out.

 

Take off the doomsayers sandwichboard and use what you want, film or digital, and stop beating a dead horse. The market for every product known to man fluctuates with demand, and no one can tell you what the market will bear 5 years down the line.

 

- Randy

"Who has official and reliable imformation, how long colour negative or slide film will be manufactured?"

 

No one.

John Henneberger is correct. When I worked at Kodak I saw the updated product plans about once a year that forcast which films would continue, which would be stopped, and which new or revised films would be in the marketplace. Although these plans forcast 3 or 4 years out, the only part that was believable was the next few months. The market keeps changing and the people making the decisions change.

Ruslan - at least 15 years - who told me ? Mystic Meg :)

 

Seriuosly - if I or anyone else knew the answer we would not be on here we would be on our own tropical island with a blonde and a Pimms.

Have long since stopped worrying about this as I reckon it will be long enough for me.

"Who has official and *reliable* information, how long colour negative or slide film will be manufactured?"

 

NOBODY! Because nobody on this planet (including Kodak and Fuji officials) *knows* how long that will be. Film, like ANY product, will continue to be manufactured (by somebody) as long as: (1) there is sufficient consumer demand, (2) raw materials are available and (3) it can be made and sold at a cost that will net a reasonable return to the manufacturers. That could be 5 years, 15 years or 50 years. I certainly don't know when that will be, and nobody else here does either. As for predictions (about anything), the only certainty about those is that they are usually wrong.

 

Film demand is shrinking. No one can dispute that. It will continue to do so, although I would guess the most dramatic rate of decline has already occurred, and will level off as digital reaches its saturation point in the very near future. But film is still (for now) a VERY BIG business - in the multi BILLIONS of dollars.

 

If you are a film shooter then continue to shoot it as long as it available to you at an affordable cost, and forget about worrying about the future of film. It won't do you any good anyway.

 

I can't really understand all the hubbub from the doomsday naysayers on this issue anyway (many who have already moved to digital, so why should they care). Do we see the media filled will panicked predictions about automobiles and the future supply/manufacture of gasoline (which is finite and WILL continue to become increasingly expensive)? Are you worried that your car (a far larger "investment" than any camea body) will be an obsolete boat anchor in 3 years? A little perspective is needed I think.

 

Don't worry, be happy, shoot away in blissful ignorance. You'll sleep a lot better. :-)

Man, I love the way people come out and say "colour film will be gone in 6 years" in such a tone as if they really know. That's what I love about the internet and forums...everyone is an expert.

 

Come on guys, your are all guessing without any facts. When replying, say so and don't sound like you know for sure.

In the 70's everyone said large format was dead and in 10 years no one would be making LF cameras, lenses, or sheet film. One of the lone voices was Steve Stint (Stint's View in Modern Photography) saying LF would be here for a long, long time. Well, it's 30 years latter, we got new view camera companies, new lenses, and lots of film.

 

Steve was right. I will bet that in 100 years you will be able to get 35mm & 120 C-41 and B&W film. It might not be Kodak or Fuji but it will be available.

Nothing Fuji, Ilford, or Kodak announces has any validity whatsoever beyond the tenure of the current CEO, if that long, and if at all. Their CEOs makes decisions at this level by themselves. No committees, no engineers. No employee has the least ability to predict what the CEO, or his replacement, will do.

 

CEOs address and respond to their markets, guided by sales, not by nostalgia or engineering or "logic" or recent capital investments or research. Kodak's film market projections have been wildly, mistakenly optimistic each of the past three or four years and their digital camera sales have been fabulous. Kodak's shareholders, who OWN the company, obviously do NOT own it in order to make film.

 

The best predictor anybody has is Kodak's stock price. It's been going mostly sideways after the 9/11 nosedive. This means the shareholders are being patient, but not being rewarded for their investment. Stock analysts are also being patient, some even supporting the price with optimism, but patience and optimism will eventually run out unless they start to be rewarded for investing in the stock. If the analysts turn strongly against the current CEO, which could happen overnight, rather than being patient with him, film will probably be the first thing a new CEO will address.

 

fwiw Costco sells only Kodak inkjet paper and Kirkland their house brand (the very best glossy inkjet paper of all, and the cheapest).

While no one on earth knows for sure what will happen, here are some facts that may give you a clue: Super 8 movie film is still available. Vinyl records are still available. Buggy whips are still available. You can still get tires for a Model T Ford. The day will come (5 to 20 years?) when you will have to special order film rather than buy it at your local drug store. For the die hard enthusiasts (the people who read this forum), film will be available in some form for many years to come.

The internet will aid film's long term survival as well. Whatever demand is left decades from now will be efficiently routed to suppliers via forums such as this.

"Black and White film, however, will last longer, if not indefinitely, because no matter what people tell you, you cannot make a digital print that looks as good as a brilliantly made silver print."

 

I couldn't agree more. Digital is great for color photography. For black and white, the silver stuff is unbeatable.

Each film has a look and a set of characteristics. To change the photographic result or advantage just change the film. And the the cost of the film here is not significant...

 

However, the snapshot shooter will just accept the look and characteristics of a point-and-shoot digital camera. So film will be available from professional supply sources but not available at general department stores...

 

Also, any photographic service required is available if there are just two or three labs offering the service nationwide. Just ship to the professional service...

 

The future of digital ? Probably in the software first. Take the raw image and just choose a packaged signature post processing. Doesn't look good ? Just try another. Then the point-and-shoot digital would need choice of jpeg styles with each one just a different look from the other. However, in both cases improving dynamic range requires hardware improvements or multi-sampling camera operation.

 

Oh, the digital sensor needs a replaceable clear film that can be advanced across it to keep it clean...

I personally think that C-41 and E-6 WILL inevitibly disappear, but they WILL be replaced with a similar type of film. The demand is still here and will be for the forseable future.

I don't think C41 can replace slide film simply because of the cost of proofing negatives.

england will win the world cup.

No, Italy will win the World Cup.

 

BTW - I'm sick of this film doom thread. Yesterday I saw an excellent "film", at Lincoln

Center in New York City, shot on High Def. Digital Video but the image was not as good as

it could have been: not fuzzy but not really sharp either (mind you that this is a large

theatrical screen). The colors were not saturated and there was much color bleeding. The

look of the image bothered me and I was not alone. During the question and answer

period with the director, it was ascertained that he did indeed shoot it on High Def. Digital

Video. He talked of his next production and someone asked if he would shoot it on video

as well; no, he said - his next film would be shot on motion picture film. Applause from

the audience. Even people who should know better (directors, producers,

cinematographers) fall for the digital age advertising and super hype. In some formats

there simply is no contest. Film producers/directors come to me with their projects and

announce that they want to shoot on digital video (high def or not), for no good reason

other than jumping on the digital bandwagon, and ask what equipment/gadgets I will

need to make their production look like film. My answer is always the same: shoot it on

film. Why kid (or b.s.) anyone: each material has its pros and cons, advantages and

disadvantages.

 

OK, so maybe Brazil will win the World cup, again...

I have it from an unempeachable source that Fuji and Kodak have a secret agreement to end the production of all film on Oct 1, 2010, at 12:00 noon.

Togo will win the world cup and Fuji and Kodak will merge to become the 3rd largest car maker in the world.

<I>During the question and answer period with the director, it was ascertained that he did indeed shoot it on High Def. Digital Video</i><P>High-Def digital video is not appropriate for large scale projection because it lacks sufficient vertical resolution. High-Def video is also not the same thing as a digital motion picture camera, which the director should have been using in this case, so get your facts straight before building a straw horse.<P>Supply and demand will dictate the continued production of film, and as long as there are suckers too stupid to figure out how to use a digital camera, then Kodak and Fuji will continue to dye couple industrial dyes onto a silver halide matrix.<P>The production and availability of color is also not directly related to it's demise because labs available to process it are continuing to drop off like flies. E-6 and C-41 processing is not practical enough for the enthusiast to mess with, and those chemicals will become increasingly more expensive and impractical to buy in small volumes. The short form is color film will be available for quite awhile, but it will be an increasing pain in the neck to get it processed with quality. We saw the exact same scenario play of wityh Kodachrome, so nay-sayers are merely being ignorant.<P>We'll also have a strong group of stubborn hold outs who eill continue to ship film across the country to one of the remaining labs in the short term future capable of processing film. Meanwhile, <b>real</b> photographers will have long ago removed the judgement of total strangers from the equation, and be shooting and printing their images at home as <b>real </b> artists should. Film is all about having somebody else think for you, and being able to blame the medium rather than the photographer on all acoounts, so this is no surprise.

The average joe six pack gets better images today with a P&S digital, than his obsolete old film slr. Folks are shooting actual images of folks, kids that move, sports events, and NOT sterile test targets on granite blocks<BR><BR>In the printing business the high end P&S digital has surpassed joe six packs typical lame 35mm stuff long ago, several years ago.<BR><BR>With digital there is no grain film to scan, no BS discussions of film versus digital to deal with. No retarded best case film equals XY megapixel retarded discussions to hear ad nausium. The best case BS is NOT what the general public does. There is no fricken design margin with theses Physicist, whussy best case crap. <BR><BR> C41 in 35mm will be around a long time, and slide film will get more expensive, as just a few loons buy it and the pipeline gets constipated with old stock. <BR><BR>In vacation beach areas there is still a hell of alot of 1 hour C41 stuff processed from one shot cameras. Folks use these where an expensive slr, dslr or high end P&S fears to tread. <BR><BR>As long as folks buy film in volume, it will be made. Many places have seen 120 and 4x5" labs dies off a decade ago, thats why I got a 4x5" digital scan back, to regain control. Its abit funny to see the pro lab dying problem now get to large cites a decade later. In many rural areas folks went to digital long ago, as pro labs died, or we have used the local Walgreens or Walmart as our pro lab. <BR><BR>It will be interesting to see slide film and processing costs skyrocket for others, and see others squirm when their pro 120 lab looses/ruins film, like the events I went thru almost a decade ago. Will you worship your pro lab as being radically better than Walmart, when your client is calling you an idiot for botching their job?<bR><BR>Film pack for 4x5 was still available in the 1970's. 8 track tapes were made up to a few years ago, for the pre digital NOAA weather radio alert system. 486's are still used in some older controllers with dos too. <BR><BR>I suppose when slide films are all gone folks will say Kodak max zoom 800 is a zillion megapixels in the 110 format. :)

<i><blockquote> Ilford is doing so well that </blockquote> </i><p>

 

... that two years ago it went into bankruptcy and receivership <p>

 

... that it has stated at that time that 80% of its revenues comes from sales of inkjet

paper <p>

 

... it has focused on sales of b&w film when b&w consists of less than 5% of

outstanding film sales, and worldwide film sales has declined by double-digit yearly

percentages since 2001, with ilm sales declining about 30% in 2005 (and 40% of

existing film sales come from sales of one-time-use cameras). AND it has

competition in this market in the form of the two largest worldwide film

companies.<p>