About Thom Hogan Latest (not last) Publication

Discussion in 'Nikon' started by breogan_gomez, Sep 13, 2011.

  1. I was reading Hogan's publication "The Strange September Situation" where he analyses the possible new products coming in September (http://bythom.com/).
    While he make some thoughtful statement sometimes you find things like this one:
    September is now a marketing problem for Nikon because it's all about perception. The issue is that, almost no matter what Nikon does later this month, they won't have correctly managed the perceptions of enough of their current and potential customers. As it is, Nikon is making bad moves even before the announcement(s): last night we got a Spartan two sentence statement out of Nikon apparently in response to the Nikkei Business Daily report about the mirrorless camera. That Nikon statement basically said "we haven't announced anything." Gee. We hadn't noticed, thanks for the update.​
    I mean, we are taking about multinational company with decades of successful management. Do a blogger knows more about market tendencies that Nikon marketing experts? I think sometimes people takes things much too far.
     
  2. Everyone is entitled to their own opinion, even Thom Hogan. When you read his posts, you should keep in mind who he is and who he is not, that's it.
     
  3. What Oliver said - plus the fact that sometimes even multi billion dollar companies make false steps.
    The example Thom gives here is a classic example of a company stating the obvious. It perhaps would have been a better PR move to actually announce something or make no comment at all.
    Dave
     
  4. I am definitely a Nikon fan and I love very much my Nikon gear. But somehow I do not like the way Nikon deals with information about their new products. I know that all is about marketing strategy... but I wonder if its the right strategy. Maybe it worked for decades but things are changing even in marketing.
    For instance I am desperately looking for a lightweight solution for street and travel photography. Compact and bridges are not in my view... I need something with interchangeable lenses. For several years I was hoping Nikon will produce something in this area. I've got tired to wait and I am very close to sell my DX gear, keeping my FX line for serious work and to move to Sony NEX-7 for street & travel.
    If Nikon would make public their strategy, even without to give exact launching time and without to tell exactly the secrets... they would build expectancy in their customers and people will save money for this or for that product. If I should know that Nikon has in its production strategy the plan to release within next 12 months a pro grade D5100 size of camera or smaller I would not consider to move to Sony for this personal need. But because I have absolutely no idea what Nikon is planning to produce now or ever I will probably go for Sony NEX-7 and if I start to invest in this system if later Nikon will bring something on the market will be too late.
    For instance Ford Motor is planning a new concept B-Max that will be produced in my country. They already speak about this, sharing some info about size, price-range, target, some technical info, a possible launching time, etc... In this way they make people to wait and to save for that product.
    At this time Nikon is playing something like a Russian Roulette with our photographic needs and I personally think that it is counter productive. We definitely need to know an approximately calendar for D4, D800, D400 and for other products Nikon may consider to bring on the market, including lenses, flashes etc. This will conduct to a win-win situation. At least this is my perspective.
     
  5. Mahai, there are numerous options for a 'lightweight solution' than have been available for a couple of years. They just don't have the Nikon nameplate on them. And the good news is that some of them can use Nikon lenses with an adapter (Olympus micro 4/3rd for example).
     
  6. Remember that Hogan's primary motivation is to get people to read his stuff, and to visit his web site. His most recent observations have a bit of the ol' Rockwell-ian theatricality, I think.

    It's easy to complain about how a company in Nikon's position (dealing with huge expenses and set-backs because the the earthquale/tsunami, dealing with a global recession's impact on demand for what are - of course - essentially unnecessary consumer products, dealing with currency craziness, and all the rest) handles near- and long-term product planning. Everyone needs to relax a little bit, and let them work.

    Sure, I'd like things I know they won't release soon enough, or at a price that I'd prefer. But I imagine that all of our own employers and customers wish we would or could do things that also aren't going to happen, for very real and practical reasons.

    It's tough, trying to sell high-tech gadgets under these conditions. Just ask Apple what it's like trying to unload their previous versoin iPhone in the weeks leading up to the next one coming out.
     
  7. This is from Nikon's official web site, not Thom, not rumors.
    http://www.nikon.com/news/2011/0909_01.htm
    Comments on Media Reports about Nikon's imaging product

    September 9, 2011
    Nikon understands that some article appeared in the media regarding Nikon's imaging product. Please note that Nikon has made no announcement in this regards.​
    You can find that by going to nikon.com and clicking on the "News" link at the top. This has to be one of the most poorly phrased statements I have ever seen. You don't need a degree in marketing to speak the English language.
     
  8. What Ken Rockwell and Thom have to say obviously has a market, as does maligning it. These opinions and their counters generate traffic for all, including PN.
    Nikon could surely use a better writer, though. That anti-announcement reads like it was authored by the guys that used to write owner's manuals decades ago.
     
  9. ... sometimes even multi billion dollar companies make false steps.​
    Also remember that they need to please the stockholders. Satisfying the customer is usually the best plan to achieve this goal in the long term. But in the short term, sometimes not. Example: Someone may need to show a short-term profit to save their job.
     
  10. Mahai, there are numerous options for a 'lightweight solution' than have been available for a couple of years. They just don't have the Nikon nameplate on them. And the good news is that some of them can use Nikon lenses with an adapter (Olympus micro 4/3rd for example).​
    Elliot, I am aware about these available lightweight solutions but (1) they seems to be somehow a downgrade from Nikon DX and (2) for years I tried to avoid to go on two systems (i.e. Pentax K7 and DAL lenses have lot of honey for me... ) - I think it was a legitimate expectation and wish to have Nikon filling this need. I really do not understand why every pro grade body from Nikon must be large and heavy as a brick. Nikon must understand that professional does not mean only sport and wildlife where you need a large body to balance with those huge lenses...
    The fact is that NEX-7 does not seem to be a downgrade, the technical sheet is blowing my mind...
     
  11. His most recent observations have a bit of the ol' Rockwell-ian theatricality, I think.​
    That is cruel! Thom, despite his grumpiness, is a serious guy. He tends to complain about Nikon's marketing because he depends on their products doing well, so that his motivation is basically positive. He sometimes (as he has done recently) overcooks his criticisms. But they come from a very different place from the one that KR pulls his comments from.
     
  12. Thom Hogan is no mere blogger. And he probably does know more about marketing than the collective Nikon
    marketing organization. He has many in-depth articles critical of Nikon marketing in his archives, and they are well
    worth reading.

    He thinks that with emphasis on video and other seemingly popular features Nikon is entirely on the wrong track.
     
  13. Mihail, I do not understand why it has to be Nikon who manufacture such cameras. For autofocus etc. to work well, the camera and lenses have to be designed together, for each other. This means the lenses have to be designed also for contrast detect AF since there aren't going to be mirrors. See how badly Nikon LV AF works? It is terrible. Compare to Panasonic or Olympus micro four thirds AF - it is lightning fast with dedicated lenses, reportedly not so good with older Four Thirds Olympus lenses (that were designed for a DSLR using phase detect AF). If you do not need autofocus, you can use any Nikon lens on a Micro Four Thirds (or Sony NEX) camera using an adapter. It would be the same in a Nikon made mirrorless camera with Nikon F mount lenses. The AF would not be effective and the lenses are disproportionally large compared to the body. Olympus and Panasonic have already an excellent line of small prime lenses and many zooms for MFT, what would Nikon have to gain by entering this market with a new product? It makes some sense that they'd do it will a smaller sensor, so that the zooms can be made small (right now micro four thirds and NEX cameras are small only when a prime is used) and they would not directly compete with DX DSLRs. Just get an E-PL3 and a 12/2, 14/2.5, 20/1.7, and 45/1.7 and shoot street with those. Very small, autofocuses lightning fast, high optical quality (12/2, 20/1.7, and 45/1.7 at least) etc. What is missing is FX-like high ISO ... but you are not likely to get that in a small camera, whoever manufactures it. Sony currently has DX-size mirrorless cameras but I think they need to make more high quality lenses than they have right now. MFT is ahead in this respect.
    Nikon is playing something like a Russian Roulette with our photographic needs and I personally think that it is counter productive. We definitely need to know an approximately calendar for D4, D800, D400 and for other products Nikon may consider to bring on the market
    That kind of a calendar would be a suicide for Nikon. Nokia's CEO Steven Elop announced some time ago that their current phones are essentially crap and that a new lineup will be developed based on Windows Phone and it will be available in 1-2 years from now. Sales plummeted, stock price dropped below anything it has been in 13 years and few believe the company will come out of it. You do not announce products that are not yet available except if the situation is really desperate. As it is Nikon's high end DSLRs are highly competitive (for still photography) and there is no great emergency to pre-announce the development of products that cannot be made immediately or very soon available. Of course it would be useful to you, but it would be a catastrophe for Nikon. Please guys stop drooling after unnannounced future products and focus on how to make the cameras that are available now work for your photography. I've used my two FX cameras for 3 and 3.5 years now and they still serve me well. Technological progress has been fast in digital cameras in these years of infancy but the products are fairly mature now. New stuff will certainly come out from Nikon and others but it's really not worth being so worked up about. Notice that Canon hasn't announced any high-end DSLRs in a long time either. Without doubt the companies are busy making existing products and planning new ones, and they'll release them when they are ready. Not before. Nikon has a responsibility also for their shareholders, not just customers. And I would like to remind everyone that that group "shareholders" includes everyone who e.g. has a retirement plan and expects the saved funds to exist by the time you actually get to retire. If companies were reckless and made these pre-announcements and caused the shares to plummet, lots of people would suffer. (I am trying to talk generally here; I don't know if whoever holds your retirement funds has invested in Nikon ... but someone has, and their lives are at stake.)
    Thom, despite his grumpiness, is a serious guy.
    Then why does he spend so much time speculating about future products and second-guessing Nikon's decisions? If he were a serious guy he'd focus on important things such as practicing photography (and writing reviews if he must) instead of pointless speculation.
     
  14. ShunCheung

    ShunCheung Administrator

    Thom Hogan is no mere blogger. And he probably does know more about marketing than the collective Nikon marketing organization.​
    Marc, think about it; if that were true, some large company would have hired Thom Hogan to be the CEO or at least the VP of marketing a long time ago and paid him lots of money. If Nikon is not interested in him, Nikon's competition should be. There is no reason that he is still writing blogs and guide books.
    Hogan is just an armchair critic who does not need to be concerned about share holders, payroll, etc. He certainly does not need to deal with the direct impact of a major earthquake and tsunmi that seriously affected Nikon and many other Japanese manufacturers.
    It is very easy to criticize when you don't have a whole lot on the line in case you are wrong. I really respect Hogan for his knowledge about Nikon equipment and his camera reviews, but his criticism on not only Nikon but also other camera brands is getting tiring, so are his incorrect predictions and rumors.
     
  15. Ikka I totally agree with you. And I would add that I have the feeling that new product releases should slow down. The continuous upgrading mechanism can not be maintained forever. What do we expect? A D6 in 12 years with 1000AF points? In this global crisis situation I think economies have slow down and so will do the developments.
    We will see what happens...
     
  16. Two things:
    1. Thom Hogan writes excellent equipment reviews and product field guides. He also blogs, engaging in entertaining speculation about Nikon and it's products.
    The entry The Strange September Situation is clearly labeled "commentary." I would take it at its face value- entertaining speculation and commentary.
    2. As to Nikon's announcement, the company was apparently disturbed about its stock rising on rumors of a mirrorless camera. I know nothing about the mechanics of the Japanese stock market or legal system; but one would assume Nikon's non-announcement-announcement was geared to head off potential problems with ill-informed, speculating, and ultimately disappointed investors.
     
  17. I mean, we are taking about multinational company with decades of successful management. Do a blogger knows more about market tendencies that Nikon marketing experts?​
    Travel back in time 30 years. Substitute 'Eastman Kodak' for Nikon. No company is infallible or invulnerable.
     
  18. Hihai ... possibly we are the few who see the NEX 7 mast tops on the horizon.
     
  19. You can complain about Thom Hogan if you want but do you think the statement (if you can call it that) on Nikon's website was good from a marketing or public relations point of view? I think anyone here could have mumbled something more coherent in their sleep.
     
  20. Walter, I do agree with that too.
    I said about Thom Hogan that in this particular publication he made some thoughtful statements but, sometimes, he make some comments which are unrealistic. I mean, he is just a single man behind a computer and Nikon is a huge company which internal mechanisms are a mystery for mere humans.
    For example, I am a physicist/meteorologist and every single person on the street thinks that knows more than me about the atmospheric dynamics just because they feel everyday the rain and cold. I think something similar is happening here.
     
  21. ShunCheung

    ShunCheung Administrator

    Walt, if you are referring to this brief article on Nikon's web site:
    Comments on Media Reports about Nikon's imaging product

    September 9, 2011
    Nikon understands that some article appeared in the media regarding Nikon's
    imaging product. Please note that Nikon has made no announcement in this
    regards.​
    http://www.nikon.com/news/2011/0909_01.htm
    I think most people will agree that the statement is cryptic and confusing.
    But at most, there is merely one little poorly written statement from Nikon. There are far far more errors on various Nikon web pages. Why spend so much energy on one little comment, which does not even offend anybody?
    I can't speak for Nikon, but apparently that cryptic statement is in reaction to rumors that Nikon is introducing mirrorless cameras, and as a result, Nikon share prices had gone up 10% in 3 days. Only Nikon themselves know whether such rumor is true or not, and if it is not, most likely their share price will take a dive. I can see Nikon does not welcome such rumors at all. See this Reuters article for more info: http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/09/09/nikon-idUSL3E7K83H820110909
    A couple of years ago, I mentioned to Nikon USA that I had proofread a few eBook Thom Hogan wrote, and Nikon made it very clear that they didn't like him because he spreads rumors.
     
  22. Mihail, I too would like to join in and ask you to take a look at the m4/3 system. I have a Panasonic GH1. As Ilkka said, their pancake lenses are so small so lovely. The AF and AF tracking work very well and in many ways better than the AF system on my old D90. Indeed, if you compare the pictures from GH1 against even those from my good old D90, the D90 pictures have better DR, lower noise in the shadow, etc etc etc. However when I mix all the photos in iPhoto, I no longer notice these differences. Our eyes are drawn to the images themselves, and I could no longer tell which picture was taken with which camera.
    I too think that it would be terrible for Nikon to tell us exactly what will come ahead which may kill the sale of current products. I guess the company that manages secret, or suspense, the best would be Apple. However, it is also quite common for a company to show "road map" or simply "leaks" products that are in various stages of development to keep some of its customers from jumping ship.
     
  23. "I guess the company that manages secret, or suspense, the best would be Apple."

    Is this the same Apple whose employees have repeatedly and famously left yet-to-be-announced iPhone products in bars? :>O
     
  24. ShunCheung

    ShunCheung Administrator

    Is this the same Apple whose employees have repeatedly and famously left yet-to-be-announced iPhone products in bars? :>O​
    Yes it is. And the guy who left a not-yet-announced iPhone 4 prototype at a bar last year was fired a week later. I found out about that shortly after because the company I work for considered hiring him.
     
  25. was fired a week later.​
    Interesting ... now we know that the "accident" was not staged by Apple for publicity sake.
     
  26. ShunCheung

    ShunCheung Administrator

    CC, precisely. Originally, I too thought that "iPhone 4 accidentally left at a bar" incident was perhaps a staged, intentional leak to generate publicity. Soon I found out that was not the case.
    I treat NDA seriously.
    Personally, I don't like rumors. If you treat them as fun and mostly wrong information, perhaps it is ok, but frequently it merely leads to lots of disappointment and even anger when rumors do not materialize. In that sense I am afraid that Hogan and the verious rumor sites are doing the Nikon community and photo community in genreal a lot of dis-service.
     
  27. I do not believe this is about Thom Hogan, I think this is about Nikon. Thom can say whatever he wants and let's not forget that he is a Nikon customer too so he is entitle to criticize or express his opinion about this and that and it is up to you if you want to believe or not whatever he says. I do believe he is a very serious person and his books are the best out there to teach us about this or that product. On the other side, we are customers of a company named Nikon that keeps their new upcoming stuff, like a military top secret. Nikon should not forget that they depend on us. If we do not buy their stuff, they will be gone soon. At least they should share some kind of information with us, like for example : in the next 6 months, we will come up with a new FX / DX camera ... and that's all the need to say; they should not provide to us with any technical detail or how much they will cost or the name of those products, but at least, keep us informed about what is or not coming to us, so we can plan in advance and be prepare for it and for sure, that will stop us from rumors, but if you keep silence about it, then the rumors starts to arise and when somebody like Thom ( who by the way has a lot of knowledge about Nikon stuff ) starts to give up his opinion, then we start to criticize him instead focus our attention to Nikon. We know the D3, the D700 and the D300 are overdue and they need to be replaced but still we do not know when those replacements will be on the shelf for us to look at them and probably buy them. I do believe it is part of a marketing strategy also, the propaganda; give something to the customers in advance to keep them focus on their products so they do not run away from the market. That is why I do think Nikon should give us some kind of tip so we stay happy expecting that product we are waiting for, will stay in our hands pretty soon. The mirrorless situation is getting in the middle of the DSLR and at this point, we do not know if Nikon will give priority to that new system or the old system. Thom is another customer expressing his opinion and still Nikon, not matter what we say or what rumors we create, continue to be quiet as a tomb. I do not believe that is wise at all but again, this is my personal opinion. Propaganda also is part of a good marketing strategy and I think Nikon has lost focus on that fact.
     
  28. At least Nikon has never named a DSLR the *ist, Pentax did a few years ago.
    No one ever figured out how to pronounce it, although one can imagine a few possibilities. . . .
    --Lannie
     
  29. "they seems to be somehow a downgrade from Nikon DX " If you are referring to features, perhaps. If you are referring to IQ, I don't see it. I am using the Olympus E-PL1 with Panasonic's 20mm f1.7 lens - IQ is outstanding.
     
  30. I thought that Hogan had died or something, given that this was his "last publication". I was relieved to find out that it was merely his most recent publication.
    While I agree with Matt and others on the general problem of commercial posting - [must attract more attention...] - I think that Hogan is a step above the Hypnoken.
     
  31. JDM, thanks for the correction. And sorry to worry you. ;P
     
  32. ShunCheung

    ShunCheung Administrator

    JDM, Breogan and everybody else, I updated the thread subject. Thanks to JDM for pointing that out; I missed it.
    Maurice Orozco, may I suggest you read about the Osbourne Effect?http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Osborne_effect
    When I was a computer science graduate student at UCLA in the early 1980's, I saw the world's first "portable" computer by Osbourne for the first time at the schoold store. That computer comes in a big case and weights some 26 pounds. But that company soon went out of business.
     
  33. Isn't Thom Hogan one of the people behind the Osborne, after all? This gives him a background and a prestige, and his opinions should be valued from here.
     
  34. Thom is also one of the few folks around here that has actually had an audience with Nikon - have they not in the past flown him to Japan for discussions?
    Though I don't always agree with him, I think he has more rational thoughts and discussions than just about anyone else that cares to share their views/opinions.
    John
     
  35. the D3, the D700 and the D300 are overdue
    The D3 and D300 were discontinued and replaced with new models two years ago... and the D700 is an "economical" FX model so it's not surprising it's using an old sensor (to separate itself from the more expensive D3s and D3X). Both the D3s and D3X are IMO quite competitive with Canon's 1D Mk IV and 1Ds Mk III.
    in the next 6 months, we will come up with a new FX / DX camera ...
    Nikon needs to sell the products that they have now, not those they may have in the future (since you're unlikely to pay money today for a product that you will get in, say 6-12 months from now). If they tell us that there will be a new FX (DX) camera in six months, FX (DX) camera sales will plummet. Anyway, Nikon's announcement often pre-dates general availability by a few months so they in fact often do give advance information. Sometimes by even more than six months when they have no preceding, comparable existing product (such as in the case of the 45 PC-E). What no annoucement simply means is that Nikon have no such product ready to ship in a few months. Use existing cameras or buy a camera that is on the market.
    Propaganda also is part of a good marketing strategy
    I prefer marketing based on facts.
    The mirrorless situation is getting in the middle of the DSLR and at this point, we do not know if Nikon will give priority to that new system or the old system
    I'm sorry? You're worried about an unannounced, possible future product taking over Nikon's current DSLR camera business? Really ... You know what is the best way to make sure that doesn't happen? Go buy some DSLRs and lenses if you prefer those over the mirrorless cameras. If you want mirrorless cameras, buy them. That will send the right message to the manufacturers.
     
  36. Many years ago a good friend taught me a valuable life principle: if you eating chicken, spit out the bones.
    Because someone gets some things right does not mean he is right about everything. Conversely if someone gets something wrong it does not mean he is wrong about everything.
     
  37. Mihail, I do not understand why it has to be Nikon who manufacture such cameras. For autofocus etc. to work well, the camera and lenses have to be designed together, for each other. This means the lenses have to be designed also for contrast detect AF since there aren't going to be mirrors. (...)​
    Illka, honestly I believe that Nikon has no chance to compete with Sony and others in a mirrorless system. If you read carefully what am I requesting is a pro grade DSRL at the size of D5100 or smaller... not so plasticky, with a great viewfinder, good controls, etc... My complain is that for Nikon prograde means bricks... Definitely for some applications these "bricks" are great but not everyone need them all the time... so we need a practical solution.
    Nikon is playing something like a Russian Roulette with our photographic needs and I personally think that it is counter productive. We definitely need to know an approximately calendar for D4, D800, D400 and for other products Nikon may consider to bring on the market
    That kind of a calendar would be a suicide for Nikon. Nokia's CEO Steven Elop announced some time ago that their current phones are essentially crap and that a new lineup will be developed based on Windows Phone and it will be available in 1-2 years from now. Sales plummeted, stock price dropped below anything it has been in 13 years and few believe the company will come out of it.​
    Let me disagree with you. I don't expect Nikon CEO to have a press conference where to say that the current lineup is crap and will be replaced in 2 years... :) But if Nikon announces that they have a clear plan to release a D4 at least six months before Olympic Games and that D4 will be an ultimate pro grade camera with the most performing engineering, including a bright huge viewfinder, a new improved powerful processing engine, a new and improved AF module with "x" points, dual cards, ten frames per second, 24 MP and great low ISO performance... I do not think the stock marked will follow Nokia's announcement...
    Will such as announcement kill the sales of current production? I don't think so. Let me explain why. Nikon pro grade bodies are purchased by people who knows what they are doing. They do their homework and at least they come on photo.net or on other forums and they are asking: "what FX camera should I buy?..." Guess what... they receive answers like this: "There is not a good idea to purchase a camera that its at the very end of its life cycle... Soon we expect D800... you better wait few more months... use what you have or buy a D7000 for now and keep it as a backup later..." Sounds familiar to you? During my last visit to a local dealer over here, even the salesperson from the desk gave a similar advice to someone who asked a similar question... Of course, there are some people who needs now a good camera and they will buy it because they can't afford to wait an uncertain time until that expected D800 will hit the shelves.
    IMHO Nikon gear is not like cell phones... Cell phones are disposable... you use them for a year and then you buy another from a different brand... who cares? But when I choose Nikon I choose a system... a system that is constantly growing... well my retirement fund is not invested in Nikon stock but I personally invested over 25K Euro in Nikon gear so I consider that people who are constantly investing in this system, all pro and all advanced enthusiasts and hobbyist across the world must be considered somehow partners with Nikon and needs to be informed constantly about the direction the company thinks and plan to go. Nikon will not loose anything doing so... Someone like me and like those who invested in this system will not sell everything to move to Canon camp or whatever unless receives serious kicks in ass, so Nikon is not loosing anything. Look to one example please: what should be wrong for Nikon to announce now that they are supposing to bring a new lens on the market, like a DX 24/1.8 AF-S lens? Will this kill the sales of any existing lens? Why we didn't knew anything about the plan to make 24/1.4 or 35/1.4? Don't tell me that it was intended to protect the huge sale of 35/1.4 AI-S... Why we don't know what is the next f1.4 prime from Nikon? If I should know that I may not purchase a Zeiss lens with appropriate qualities.... Why we didn't knew anything about the 40/2.8 micro AF-S? What would Nikon lose if they will make such as announcements? What will they lose if they announce a D800 for Christmas time at $3200? In my country when D7000 was announced people jumped to buy D90 considering that it will disappear... it was a huge sale of D90 at that time... What segment from Nikon market will suffer if they will let us know if they have any plan to build a small factor pro grade body, eventually a FX one? The real fact is that nobody will suffer if this transparency will happen. The big problem is when nothing came on the market, only some not-so-coolpixes and a red-painted version of D3100... :( after a bad earthquake people and I mean investors could feel insecure about future... no cameras, no announcements, no any road map... only some rumors about a ridiculous small sensor mirorrless system... why should I keep my funds there? But when there is the right information people have trust and they are investing. Customers are also confident that is a winner path and continues to invest in glass, in flashes, etc...
    Shun says that Nikon hates rumors... and he as well. You know what? The lack of information is the best yeast for rumors. If Nikon wants to stop rumors they must learn a smart way of transparency. To speak that information that gives direction and makes people feel confident about the way they are going. If Nikon will start do this way I put my hand on fire that Canon will follow the same path.
     
  38. ShunCheung

    ShunCheung Administrator

    Shun says that Nikon hates rumors... and he as well. You know what? The lack of information is the best yeast for rumors. If Nikon wants to stop rumors they must learn a smart way of transparency. To speak that information that gives direction and makes people feel confident about the way they are going. If Nikon will start do this way I put my hand on fire that Canon will follow the same path.​
    Sorry Mihai Ciuca, are you aware that Nikon has been making pro-grade SLRs since 1959; that is, continuously making them for 52 years. If people still have doubts about Nikon's direction, they will always have doubts regardless.
    If, for example, Nikon announces that they will introduce some FX-format DSLR in the next 6 months, do you really believe that rumors will just stop? If anything, there will be even more rumors about how many pixel it has, what kind of AF system, pricing, weight, etc. etc.
    And worse yet, if God forbit there is another earthquake in Japan, riot in Thailand, or whatever disruption so that Nikon is not ready to announce such camera in 6 months, guess what, there will be even more rumors and speculations about why "Nikon has missed the deadline."
    Again, I suggest people read about the fiascio of Osborne Computer. Nobody is going to tell their customers to stop buying the current model and also give their competition heads up about what their next move will be. That is simply Business 101. Any company that makes such fundamental errors is not going to last.
     
  39. There are tons of rumors on Nikon's future compact mirrorless system which based on rumors won't really compete with their own DSLR line. Companies have "paper launches" all the time where they show prototypes or even just mockups. This is mainly done to get people to wait and stop them from buying a competitor's product.
    I agree that it is not in Nikon's best interests to discuss future DSLRs precisely because of the Osborne Effect but that only applies to Nikon's future DSLRs not markets in which they do not currently compete.
    As for Hogan, a simple google search of "thom hogan adam osborne" will show that Thom was Director of Software at Osborne Computer so he probably understands the Osborne Effect much better than the rest of us. For those wondering why any of us take him seriously regarding product strategy, marketing, PR, etc. I suggest you read his bio page.
    http://bythom.com/thom.htm
     
  40. The D5100 is small and light because it has no glass prism, AF motor, aperture reading system, and its mirror box,
    shutter etc. are DX size. If Nikon made it FX, with AF motor, high quality viewfinder and Ai metering support, you
    basically have a D700 size camera. Which to me is fine. A lighter and smaller camera has to give up some of those
    things. I think it's very unlikely that we would see a stripped down FX camera in the next five years or so

    Regarding the announcement, or lack of one, for the fast wide angle primes, well I guessed they'd be coming when
    Nikon put SWM on the new 50/1.4. Nikon said in several instances in interviews that there would be more primes.
    They didn't say which ones would be first, because they didn't know when the designs would be ready. I would have
    however saved money if Nikon had not insisted on claiming that they'd stay with DX .... I would simply have not made
    any attempt to adjust my lineup for DX. I was very happy when they made the D3 and it still is my most used camera.
    That product restored my faith in Nikon as a long term platform and I was happy to invest in their lenses (and some
    Zeiss ones). If Nikon had said that they'd eventually make a full-frame camera I might have gotten the 28/1,4 before it
    was discontinued and the price became unrealistic. And that would have saved me trouble and a long wait, but I think
    the current 24/1.4 and 35/1,4 are probably better lenses and I hold no grudge to Nikon any more. A roadmap would
    have helped me personally between 2004 and 2007 but I am happy how things turned out. At this point I pretty much
    can guess that there will be AF-S versions of the short tele primes such as the 105/2, 135/2, and hopefeully 180/2.8 - I
    don't need a rumor site to figure that out. And then I will be even happier as the embarrassing screwdrive AF will be
    something of the past for the prime user also. I don't mind waiting for them a bit and I don't care if they're announced
    one week before becoming available. I would like a high res compact FX body similar to the D700 but with D3X
    sensor, but Nikon seems intent on protecting the price of the D3X so I'm not expecting it to happen soon. While some
    on this forum insist that the current FX cameras are old models and one should not buy them but the reality is that any
    new models will be significantly more expensive than the current models - so you get what you pay for and DSLR
    cameras are evolving at a slower rate than they were in the recent past - I don't expect the D4 to offer revolutionary
    advances over D3s or D3X.
     
  41. Sorry Mihai Ciuca, are you aware that Nikon has been making pro-grade SLRs since 1959; that is, continuously making them for 52 years. If people still have doubts about Nikon's direction, they will always have doubts regardless.​
    This does not says anything... IBM use to build the best laptops in the past and one day they sold the division to Lenovo. Voigtlander use to build almost for centuries lenses and cameras... and now the brand belongs to a Japanese company. As was previously said Eastman Kodak was a powerful company one day... these are relative considerations.
    If, for example, Nikon announces that they will introduce some FX-format DSLR in the next 6 months, do you really believe that rumors will just stop? If anything, there will be even more rumors about how many pixel it has, what kind of AF system, pricing, weight, etc. etc.​
    Well, that will not be anymore rumor... it would be the best advertisement Nikon can wish... these talks build enthusiasm in customers and create determination to place pre-orders. It's counterproductive to ask people to not speak about their passion, their hobby or their tools. Nikon better have to encourage people talk about these things... If everyone will cease to speak about these things one day, this will be the end of Nikon's days.
    And worse yet, if God forbit there is another earthquake in Japan, riot in Thailand, or whatever disruption so that Nikon is not ready to announce such camera in 6 months, guess what, there will be even more rumors and speculations about why "Nikon has missed the deadline."​
    We already experimented that and nobody was hurt in his feeling for Nikon... nobody leaved the camp because of that. It was a strong expectation for some FX bodies in the spring but the earthquake changed everyone's expectation. We all understood the situation and nobody blames Nikon for that.
    Again, I suggest people read about the fiascio of Osborne Computer. Nobody is going to tell their customers to stop buying the current model and also give their competition heads up about what their next move will be. That is simply Business 101. Any company that makes such fundamental erros is not going to last.​
    With all respect I do not think that Osborne effect is affecting every area of commerce. This could be true for iPhone or for some gadgets... but tell me how applies Osborne effect if Nikon announces a 24/1.8 DX prime or a small 20/4 AF-S FX pancake prime? If Nikon will announce D800 this will not kill D700 sales because people anyhow knows that it is at the end of its life cycle. Who need it now will buy D700 now. Who need D800 will wait as long as is necessary but will not buy D700. Also Osborne effect is not validated by the way pro-photo gear is going. D3 went out from the market long ago but it is still sold for a bunch of money on the used market. It did not become obsolete when D3s has been launched as Osborne suggests. And with its strategy to bring each new product at a higher price tag in comparison with the product is replacing Nikon prevents those products to become obsolete. Nikon 85/1.4D is not obsolete since the launch of 85/1.4G. Even 50/1.8 AF-D is not obsolete now when we have available 50/1.8G.
    Again, the pro grade bodies and lenses from Nikon are marketed 95% for people that are already in the Nikon camp and already invested thousands of $$$ in gear. If the competition receives information about Nikon plans this does not affect Nikon market. If Canon find out what lenses will bring Nikon in the next two years this information will not help them with anything. Secrets like this make sense for new, revolutionary products, involving new technologies etc. Not for lenses lineup and not for bodies lineup. If Canon knows that Nikon will bring a great 24MP FX body with an unbelievable good ISO in low light this does not means that they will be able to do a Canon replica based on this information. If they have the know how to produce such as camera they will produce it no matter what Nikon is going to do or not to do.
    Instead of focusing on what plans the competition does not have to know Nikon should better focus on building brand fidelity. And brand fidelity is built not only on good products but on good PR, good marketing and on developing trust. If for 52 years they were successful within a model of secretive behavior this is not a guarantee for a future success. The market is very different now. The new generation grew up in the informational era and they may need a different approach.
     
  42. With all of this ... what they should make (but won't talk about), what they may make (but can't suggest) ... one thing is pretty much FOR SURE ... we have not seen much activity in the last ten years or more with ANY company saying ..."let's make a bigger camera!" ... it would be reasonable to call "smaller" (with MUCH HIGHER SPECS) ... a developing (sorry) irresistable force.
     
  43. Is it just me, or has this discussion moved from obscurity to incomprehensibility?
    [on reflection, it occurs to me that I had better say that the above question is rhetorical. Please do not answer me by explaining it all over again.]
     
  44. ShunCheung

    ShunCheung Administrator

    Mihai Ciuca, if your approach is simply dismiss the fact that Nikon has been continuously making high-end SLRs for over half a century as
    This does not says anything...​
    There is really no point for any further discussion. We all know that Osbourne pre-announced a future computer and then the company went out of business. So pre-announcing can be totally meaningless also.
     
  45. Japan is in a mess just now. Radiation beyond imaginable levels, rolling blackouts, questionable food and fresh drinking water.
    It will be some time before things are back to business as usual in Japan.
    We need to give them time to get back on their feet. Don't be in a big hurry to replace the D3 & D300 for the new models, that are not going to show for some time.
     
  46. Thom Hogan is often very critical of Nikon, and seems to think he knows far better how to manage the company, due to his past experience in business. He is always saying that they are doing things wrong. And yet Nikon are doing very well. He is an intelligent man, writes good reviews, but I give his Nikon analysis articles a miss as I find him too opinionated. They are his opinion, no more.
     
  47. If, for example, Nikon announces that they will introduce some FX-format DSLR in the next 6 months, do you really believe that rumors will just stop? If anything, there will be even more rumors about how many pixel it has, what kind of AF system, pricing, weight, etc. etc.
    >> No, that will not stop the rumors at all but it is not about that. Rumors always be there regardless. The bottom line of this is the lack of communication between a company and their customers. Good communication is the key to a good relationship and if Nikon keeps us on edge, about their new products, that means they are telling us : we do not ignore you, we will come up with something you have been expecting !! Sit tight, and we will give you what you need. Will that stop the rumors? No. But that simple communication is probably all that we need. I do agree completely with Mihai and disagree with some of you, but again, everyone is entitle to its own opinion. Propaganda, advertisement or marketing, whatever you want to call it, is the key to keep customers on your hand. Failing to communicate is wrong. Other companies anyway, will not take your customers away just because they came up with something equal but you will loose customers if you ignore them and don't keep them informed. It will be a reward for us as a customers, after we have been spending thousands of dollars buying Nikon's equipment, to have some kind of info about the new line of products that will soon be out there. It is just a matter of a little lack of appreciation from Nikon, that's all.
     
  48. ShunCheung

    ShunCheung Administrator

    Good communication is the key to a good relationship and if Nikon keeps us on edge, about their new products, that means they are telling us : we do not ignore you, we will come up with something you have been expecting !​
    Maurice, why are you kept on edge? Is Nikon really lacking any piece of equipment so that you cannot take certain photographs? Or do you think Nikon will suddenly stop introducing new cameras? If so, I wonder why you haven't switched to another brand.
    From my point of view, Nikon is producing far far more types of camera and lenses than I need and especially more than what I can afford. The fact that Nikon has been continuously producing high and low-end cameras and lenses for over half a century and is currently quite profitable is the best communication to us that this will continue. Likewise, I have no doubt that Canon will do the same.
    As we have explained within this thread, not releasing future product details to tip off your competition and kill current product sales is business 101. Just like playing chess, you don't let your opponent know in advance what your next move will be or you'll be helping them beat you. Canon practices that (they tried to stop the Canon Rumor site but were not successful), Apple practices that and so does Nikon. They are all very successful companies and I think they know what they are doing.
     
  49. My personal opinion:
    1) D3 shutter is tested to 300.000 pictures. Means that this cameras are build to last the double of D2 models.
    2) Economy has slowed down, so the pockets of potential buyers are emptier.
    3) Japan is through a difficult moment at this point.
    D3s and D3x are here to stay a little longer.
    (You know, may be tomorrow D4 will be released, who knows... but from my point of view you can not be pushing the edge continuously)
     
  50. "Don't believe media and internet hype. We'll announce new products when they're ready."

    What's wrong with saying that?

    I salute Nikon for telling the camera customer to stick misleading rumors where the sun doesn't shine.
     
  51. Dan South [​IMG], Sep 15, 2011; 06:27 p.m.
    Dan South said: "I salute Nikon for telling the camera customer to stick misleading rumors where the sun doesn't shine."
    That would be England then ...
    People get too wound up over rumours.
     
  52. England...no sun...good one! :)

    P.S. I love the UK, just for the record.
     

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