What would the right price for new DSLRs be?

[adolfo_briceno]

The 7D came out in December 2004 with a price tag of $1,600 and it?s

now less than $1050. The drop in price was $550 in only nine months.

WOW.

Did KM over priced the camera hurting the loyal customers? Did this

help the late buyers? The danger of over pricing and dropping the

price to low is like a double blade sword. What is clear to me is

that KM DSLRs don?t hold its value as other camera manufacturers.

What do you think? I would be glad to some comments assuming that KM

is coming with 7Dx with 8 MP and a 9Dx 12.8 MP. Don?t want add to

all that gossip that is going around. This is ONLY A HYPOTHETICAL

CASE to see what are your thoughts about prices for new DSLRs

cameras.

[peterblaise]

.

 

Hi Adolfo,

 

NO digital camera "keeps" it values as competitors and suppliers and any manufacturer's own subsequent models are quickly outpacing ANYTHING that is already on the shelves or in our hands today.

 

I expect Moore's law to apply - within 1 1/2 years after introduction, I expect the "value" of ANY computerized camera to be 1/2(!), and I expect a replacement to cheaper than the original it replaces and have higher qualities in it's features and benefits.

 

This says NOTHING about the cameras already on the shelf or in our hands - as they will always do exactly what they promise today. The challenge for the manufacturers AND consumers is to mind the Moore's law curve and make sure that the cost of the features and benefits match TODAY.

 

TOMORROW, all bets are off, and the world changes, doesn't it?

 

Moore's law can be interpreted to mean that, if taken linearly, the value of any computerized component dropping at 1/2 per 1 1/2 year, that's 50% in 18 months, or 2.7% per month.

 

The equation you offer - $1,600 list to $1,050 street is NOT accurate as list and street prices have always been disparate. Even so, it's ~34% in 9 months which = only 3.7% drop rather than the 2.7% predicted by Moore's law.

 

I suggest that the difference between 3.7% and 2.7% per month is artificial and meaningless and can also be attributed to seasons, weather, and other non-market issues, along with your goof of comparing list and street prices.

 

No "WOW" here.

 

Just "exactly as predicted".

 

What I'm interested in seeing is Sony becoming a full force player in the DSLR wars against Canon and Nikon, as Sony has outlets EVERYWHERE and wants to be a world dominant force in ANYTHING it enters. Combining forces with Konica Minolta to develop a Minolta A-mount DSLR sounds like a surprise in the marketplace that also makes me say, "All bets are off."

 

"Linear" thinking, like the ONLY trajectory is to 8mp and 12mp since as competition to Canon who "got there first" and what? Minolta should follow?

 

We'll see. We'll see.

 

Following is safe, and they may do just that.

 

AS Anti Shake was not a follow move, and already it is driving up the value of used Minolta A-mount lenses on the market place.

 

What's next?

 

Wait and see. Wait and see.

 

"Only from the Mind of Minolta!"

 

 

Click!

 

Love and hugs,

 

Peter Blaise peterblaise@yahoo.com http://www.peterblaisephotography.com/

[chris_harley1]

the simple answer,as with everything in emergent technology is to wait ;-) today's must have is tomorrow's obselete embarassment. Until the technology reaches a point where any improvement in quality is pointless, ie at some point having another MP of resolution is imperceptible, I expect somebody will be able to tell us where that is. At that time the only differentiating factor for manufacturers is price, which i guess, is the time to jump on board for the frugal. Let's face it 6MP,8MP and even 15MP will be 'low res ' in 2 years time. Even the mighty ?5000 Canons of today will be surpassed by cheap starter SLRs I guess within 3-4 years.

The usual form for computers has been that at any time a top-notch gaming monster will be ?2000-2500, a high quality machine around ?1000 and 3-6 month old models at around ?500.Only the spec changes with time not the cost.

The main caveat for digital SLR's must be that unlike computers which have ever more processor intense apps written for them, picture quality must have a maximum perceptible resolution.

Did KM overprice the 7D ? That's all subjective, how much do you really want the latest model ? I must agree though that seeing prices drop so fast makes those who have the most patience the real winners....... but thats true of all purchases ;-)

[chris_at_vividoptic.com]

I think the 9D will come in at 2.5x the entry price of the 7D, then settle a year later to 2x the price. And I think it will have a 1.25x chip (not 1.5 and not 1:1). And I think it will have 12+ million pixels.

 

But this is all complete guesswork

[clinton_abe]

Peter- Can't you give a short answer? Why are all of your posts soooooo long? Especially when you have so little to say.

[admiralblur]

Peter,

 

I have to apologize for Clinton. His mother never taught him any manners and he likes to frequently display it on this forum. Whatever you do, though, DON'T ask him to make predictions on future cameras! ;)

[chris_at_vividoptic.com]

Clinton - could you give us your insight on the latest "predictions on future cameras" please. Ta

[adolfo_briceno]

When 7D came out in December 2004 B&H had it at $1,599 and now the same camera sells for $1,099. I even found it on the internet for $1,050. Prices may vary but the fact stands that the 7D dropped about $550. That?s a 34% drop.

Comparatively speaking. Do other camera manufacturers drop their prices like this?

Not that I don?t expect a drop in price but, I think that the 7D was over priced and it had to adjust to market levels to compete with other DSLRs of similar or better features.

 

Canon?s 20D was selling in September 2004 for $1,500 and now sells for $1,309. Check B&H?s website. In November 2004 a friend bought his 20D at $1450 and another friend bought his in January 2005 at $1,300.

 

Digital Photography Review?s full report from Jan 2005 on the 7D (Still on their website) compared prices stating: 7D $1,566 6MP vs Canon?s 20D $1,499 8MP

 

Please check your market prices and kindly indicate your source.

 

Chris, at this point it?s all speculation, but prices would have to be linked to the current model, meaning the 7D. KM cannot isolate itself from what?s out in the market from other DSLRs manufacturers like Canon or Nikon.

 

My best guess based on Canon and Nikon?s DSLRs would be 7Dx 8 MP at $1,500 9D 12.8 MP at $4,500. This is just a wild guess. Only better prices and technology would start the reverse the flow of KM people going into Canon.

[douglas_green1]

FYI, I recently bought a used Kodak DCS-560, for under $800. 7 years ago, when that camera was introduced, it's list price was $30,000 which was quickly dropped to $16,000. By today's standards, it's still a nice, pro-quality 6 MP DSLR, with alot more bulk, and shorter battery life than most current 6 MP DSLRs, but a terrific feature set and build quality if you don't mind the size and weight.

 

I don't frankly care that it used to cost $16-30K. I just care that it met my current needs better than any OTHER sub < $1000 DSLR.

 

The point is, these cameras will sell for whatever the market will pay for them. 7 years ago, a high quality 6 MP digital SLR cost > $15K. Nowadays, it's under $1K. Similar trajectories can be tracked for lower res cameras, and higher res, higher featured cameras.

[clinton_abe]

chris- Let's see-- future cameras, hmmmm. Low end digital cameras (under 5MP) will be part of your cellphone and they will be able to take video and have zoom lenses. Higher end dSLR's will also have built-in video, so not only will you be able to shoot 12+MP still photos, but you can switch to video. Both of these have already been shown. Now that HD video cameras that are less expensive are being sold by Sony, I could foresee a 9D, or whatever it's called, being able to shoot a 16:9 still or HD video images using the same lenses being used for a FF dSLR.

 

A lot of this dependent on memory cards going to more than the 4GB which seems to be the upper end today. But, there are portable hard drives around the size of two packs of playing cards with 80GB. Of course you'll be able to download wirelessly to a computer or portable hard drive, but at a faster speed. I received info for some of the 'New Technologies' to be shown at the CES in January, and one of the new things being shown is 'wireless USB', which I imagine will be faster than what is now available.

 

With the new products, you'll also need batteries with more capacity, and I'm sure they are coming.

 

If someone wanted, they could, and have, come out with cameras with a PDA, GPS, MP3, etc., or is it a PDA with a camera, phone, GPS, or a PDA with camera, cellphone, GPS? And where do you draw the line? The traditional idea of a camera will change from a heavy item that only takes pictures, to a multi-purpose device. The old-timers will complain, but that won't stop new ideas from coming to market.

[lunatech]

You can be an early adopter and take a double hit with both the high price that is sure to drop and work as an unpaid beta tester, or you can sit and wait forever till "they" stop developing new technology and you're safe. Usually the price drops dramatically only when the next big thing comes along and takes its place. Look at the Canon Rebels or Nikons D70/D70s or Pentax ist or istier. Sometimes it is hard for us geeks to have last year's news, and the marketers know this!

 

I did buy the 7D when it dropped from $2700 suggested retail (before it was available, and I would never buy it at that price) to $1800 (here in Canada). I haven't seen much movement here or on eBay, maybe a couple hundred dollars. Don't know what I will do when the supposed "9D" will come out, the camera I really want. Maybe 2nd mortgage...

 

The next level up camera better be 12MP or there abouts, better noise control and sharper picture. Lighter would be good too! Control and menu layout OK as is, (maybe hedge the future with a 3" LCD...or can we dream here...a preview LCD?) Not sure about the Sony deal...surely they will not incorporate their stupid propietary memory sticks?

 

I assume we will see a 7D light (5D or 7Ds??? who names these cameras?) before we will see the dream machine.

[adolfo_briceno]

Yes Michael.

Size really does matter. Now that you brought up the issue of the 3 inch screen. One thing that KM got right from the start was the 2.5 inch screen. The new Canon DSLRs are now coming with the 2.5 inch screens. I am referring to Canon?s EOS 5D and EOS 1D Mark II N. I am sure that the agreement with Sony will bring good DLSRs cameras from both manufacturers. The only thing I hope is that the prices are right.

[chris_harley1]

Uggh a camera with video/mp3/personal organiser and web surfing how pointless would that be ?? And how gross ?? I take my camera out to get away from all that stuff ! Cant see the appeal of all this convergent technology - maybe a mint flavoured 7D to take away the nasty taste of all the money I've lost since I bought mine in March ?

[martin_kalaydjian]

OK... I can top all of you. I just bought a Minolta XD-11 with a Sigma 35-70 zoom lens in really nice condition for $51 on eBay. Quite a big price drop in 30 years! That camera was $500 in 1975... or $3000 in 2005 dollars!

 

Seriously though... it does pay to be slightly behind the curve, but if you wait too long you could end up waiting forever. Those $48 VCR's at Walmart are actually BETTER than the $1,000 model you bought 20 years ago. But if you waited you would have missed out on 20 years of having a VCR.

[adolfo_briceno]

If the 7D was $1,599 and now Adorama has it at $899.95 (including the $200 rebate from KM) that means that there was a drop in price of 43.8 percent. Not 34 percent.

It seems that it pays to wait.

Bob Lazzarini. Thanks for your post on the lowest price of the 7D. Sorry to that person but I did not understand the Moore's Law or linear thinking approach.