Window of DSLR Opportunity

[david_f._stein]

Pentax and Olympus have had their go at "ground up" DSLRs. I think Minolta could

have a winner with a compact DLSR with image stabilization built into the camera. I'd

even go for a new line of compact digital lenses. No film cartridge space, no film gate,

no winder, etc.-why can't these new breed DSLRs be more compact, on the order of a

Nikon FM or Pentax ME. I'd like a camera not a spaceship control room nor a camera

that shouts EXPENSIVE by its bulk. ?????

[eric_friedemann]

Some thoughts:

 

1. In mid-2003, Minolta, which was a fairly small camera company, was purchased by Konica. Minolta and Konica have been struggling to find a foothold in digital cameras, with neither company's digital cameras flying off the shelves.

 

2. If a company's digital cameras aren't selling like hotcakes, it is a huge problem. Whereas film cameras historically had a shelf run of years, digital cameras may only be produced for months. So, there is little amortization of expensive fixed costs like part molds.

 

3. Currently, the DSLR market is dog-eat-dog. For Canon or Nikon, even a not terribly popular DSLR (e.g. Canon D60) may be at least nominally profitable by simple virtue of the fact that so many people own Canon and Nikon lenses and will buy cameras to mate with their lenses.

 

4. It has been said by a number of industry observers that lenses are Canon and Nikon's photo equipment profit centers. This may be why Nikon is sanguine about Fuji and Kodak producing DSLRs- so long as neither company starts cutting into Nikon's lens business. Every Fuji and Kodak DSLR will need Nikon lenses.

 

By way of contrast, every ground-up system (e.g. the Oly E-1) requires the pruchaser to buy all new lenses. There is no inherent lens compatibility to drive body sales.

 

5. These things having been said, I would be mildly surprised if Minolta entered the DSLR dogfight. Minolta doesn't have the cult following of Olympus or even, to an extent, Pentax. And understand that Oly and Pentax' initial DSLR offerings have been awfully pricey for what they are.

 

It would be very costly for Minolta to introduce a ground-up DSLR system, and nothing Minolta would introduce would have the novelty of the original Maxxum cameras (the first true AF SLR system). Like a "field of dreams," if Minolta builds it, I doubt that enough people would come to make it a financially wise move.

[bjmarkowitz]

I disagree. I think Minolta does have the cult following. I think Minolta owners are dying for a DSLR and will flock in droves to a Minolta DSLR if they come in under the Digital Rebel tag with a unit thats better built and has more features than the Digital Rebel. Moreover, Minolta's R&D costs would be minimal. They already made a DSLR, but it was before its time and doenst have the MPs to compete. Moreover, they already make one of the best DEVFs, the A1. How hard is it to make that into a DSLR? It seams to me, that given the fact that most of the R&D costs are already spent, this could be a very profitable move.

 

Also, i think they have to do it to stay relevant as a company. All of the other companies have done it. Everyone. They have to do it for their very existence.

[rokkor fan]

I agree with all of the above, except the fact that the camera will come in under the price of the Rebel. That just will not happen. When Minolta produces a DSLR it will cost about the same (maybe up to $250 more) than the current Canon mid-line product (eg. the 10D).

[Brian]

I think Eric hit the nail on the head with his point about lenses. There is a user base that owns Dynax lenses who would seriously consider a digital body, and Minolta can't really afford to ignore them. As regards a more compact design, it's a pity the Vectis line didn't last longer - this could have been adapted to a digital body. Going for an all-new lensmount system like Olympus is probably not a choice for Minolta. Olympus sells huge numbers of digital and film P&S cameras so can afford an experiment like the 4/3rds digital format.

[scott_lewis3]

I already know people that have sold their dynax gear to go nikon or canon dslr, they just couldnt wait.......

 

I picked up lots of gear cheap ;)

[john raasch]

All of these comments are simply speculation and hearsay. Minolta for the last year has kept its lips tight when it has come to a Maxxum line of DSLR�s. They will make an announcement in the early part of this year about a DSLR. Until then we can all forecast and speculate about what is coming and we won�t know until it gets here.

 

For those of us who have bought into the Minolta system, especially with their relatively recent near pro and pro level cameras, the 7 and 9 (which may be the best SLR ever built) and lenses we are hoping for much more than the cheap plastic digital rebel.

[scott_lewis3]

it my be hearsay but the rumor was 2 new slr's first then a dslr for fotokina (cologne, germany around august), fo far they are correct. personally i love my dynax 7 so much i doufght i will go digi for a wile if ever ;)

[craig_gillette]

They have kind of a catch-22 to deal with. The installed Maxxum base (the ones left anyways) are panting for a Maxxum dslr, high end/low end depends on the user. They could try to capture the beginner and un-decided away from Canon/Nikon with a lower end entry level camera. And that would tempt the maxxum 5 crowd. The high end? Maxxum 7 and 9 users? They lust for a much more feature laden camera. In either event, they want a camera that they can use their existing lens base on. Then they will move to new lenses.

 

That doesn't leave a lot of "new" base out there to keep going for lenses. "New" means competing with the D Rebel, the forthcoming Nikon D70, the 4/3 systems, maybe. As loyal as it may be, "professionals" select the right tool for the job because they can afford to and because they have to. They don't select just based on name.

 

I think a well priced (read cheap) camera is the right place to start. They need to generate new, not just return business. They need to tap into the same crowd that they think is looking at the new Dynaxes (follow-ups to the 5 and 4 primarily).

 

Can they sell kilobuck lenses? Not to me.

 

When you look at their digital history, they've sometimes been behind the entry timeline of the competition but many of their "late" cameras were better values and higher performers, at least for a time being, thinking of the 1500 and S404/414 in particular. other times, they've been too far in front.

 

Whatever, whenever, if ever, the cameras are going to have to do more than accomodate the current base and will need to have a set of features, including price, that will not only get loyalists but will also get salesmen to say, yes "they" advertise a lot, but now look at what Minolta is offering!

[chris_henry1]

The competetion has been set for Minolta as concerns a DSLR. They will

have to produce a body with a feature set and price point at the level of the

6MP DSLRs of Canon, Nikon and Pentax. Anything less will send new

business elsewhere and result in further defection of existing Maxxum owners

to other brands. They don't have the privilege of defining the market,

pipesmoke products with integral vibration reduction notwithstanding.

[mark_k3]

I think the market itself will direct Minolta's own direction. Because of smaller user base, it is possible that Minolta will not gain much more user even after launching DSLR. Comparing to Olympus, MInolta has not made much profit from the fast growing digital camera market and I hope this will be different

[rameshr]

I feel the frustration of all Minolta Fans. I am desprate to buy a DSLR, but don't want to go to Canon of Nikon. Looks like Minolta is going to push me that way. I wrote to Minolta. They gave me a blunt and unsympathetic and COLD answer. To paraphrase " we are not aware of any plans to produce a DSLR". I was dissapointed. They have till June, I will have to move to Canon. :-(

[andrew robertson]

Why the frowny face, RR? Canon has been working hard at dominating the DSLR world

through quality and price. I understand that your lens stable might be put to pasture,

but Canon has some of the finest lenses produced, and their cameras aren't that

shabby either!

 

I'd wait until after Fotokina, which is in August, to abandon your brand though.

[mark_van_bergh1]

I am surprised that nobody has noted that Popular Photography has reported

that Minolta will be showing a pre-production new DSLR at the PMA show

next month (which supposedly will have some "sensational" feature, at least

according to Herbert Keppler, who wrote the report). The camera will

supposedly be in production and shown at the Photokina show in September.

Other industry trade publications also are reporting a new Minolta DSLR on

the way. Indeed, according to the PMA website, Minolta will have a product in

the "Digital Still Camera - Professional" category. The PMA show begins

around Feb. 12, less than a month from now.

 

Also, several years ago Minolta did make a DSLR based on the Vectis SLR

design. It flopped, and predictably so. Not that many people had invested in

the Vectis system as compared to the Maxxum system. While the camera may

have made sense from a technical standpoint, because the digital sensor was

about the same size as the APS film, so the Vectis lenses were a "perfect"

match to the digital sensor, it made no marketing sense. Existing Maxxum

users were not likely to invest in yet another lens system, which had far more

limited offerings (maybe 4-5 lenses total). The forthcoming DSLR will be

Maxxum compatible, at least according to the reports.

 

We all should find out what's coming in another few weeks.

 

Mark Van Bergh