Not all doom and gloom at Leica

[richard s.]

Admittedly I have not read all of the posts on Leica's dismal future, so I apologise if this

has been discussed before, but ...

 

... are things really that bad? How can Leica on the same day release news of a new Japan

subsidiary 51% owned by itself and 49% be Hermes Japan and the loss of 50% of its capital

unless it has some sort of recovery plan. Hermes would surely not waste its time in Japan

unless it thought that Leica was going to be around for a while yet. As a 31% shareholder

of Leica it ought to be privy to Leica's financials and plans (presumably they have their own

board members).

 

Sure the current position at Leica does not too too bright, but I suspect there is a plan

afoot and that Hermes will not be letting Leica fail anytime soon.

 

That said, companies do do the darnedest stupid things sometimes!

[frank granovski]

I'm sure the Canadian banks would give Leica a credit line, if they moved their office and production back to Canada. I'm also sure that Leica will do well once they come out with their new updated M3. I can see it being a hot seller.

[monochrome11]

Frank alludes to an important point... wasn't Leica in similar finacial distress int he late 70s when the first wave of SLRs from Japan invaded the photographic consciousness of the mass market? they managed to survive (though they have hardly thrived since).... perhaps they can manage a way out of their current slump...

 

just imagine, Leica lens AND bodies made in Japan - efficiency = reduction in prices = larger market appeal

 

if you can't beat 'em, join 'em...

[derek_stanton2]

I won't worry about it until they close their doors.

 

I am powerless to do anything about it, so why deal with the anxiety?

 

When was the last time a company with this kind of brand equity actually 'went out of

business?' Not that it's related, but even Maserati came back..... There will be some

manner of 'recovery' - it's just a matter of how much compromise the principals are willing

to accept.

[mark_davidson]

The most likely outcome is that the name will be purchased and production will continue.

What form that new company will take will remain to be seen. See what Kyocera has done

with Contax or Cosina with Voigtlander. Those are good outcomes.

What is also possible is the purchase by a buyer that lacks vision and a plan. THAT will

mean the end of the brand.

[awahlster]

The first waves of Japanese SLR's hit the market a little closer to 1960 then 1970. The best ones showed up about then though.

[dan flanders]

I am an optimst in the matterof Leica's future, but it does bring to mind the fate of Keuffel & Esser, Dietzgen, Brunning, & others; world-wide leaders in the engineering equipment and supply fields. Apparently those brand names have disappeared forever, and they were not in financial straits at the time of their demise. They were gradually swallowed up by mergers and finally no one was interested in the brand name anymore.

[simonpg]

Good question Richard. But, companies are made up of people and most people do not act rationally or even intelligently. Leica would not be where it is today if they did!

 

I'm sure we all wondered the same thing when we saw the Japanese distribution notice. But just look at all the larger companies that have collapsed in the past 100 years:

1. they go broke because of decisions made;

2. when in the death throws the decisions often get worse;

3. people are making these decisions.

 

It takes a massive turnaround to make up a loss the size of 50% of your capital base! What miracle can change that in anything less than the long term. Then, who will put up their capital in that hope?

 

I suspect, hence the expression "capital options".

 

I'm anything but a pesimist and at worst a realist. But whatever cure is selected by the board or whomever takes control, I doubt things will be as they are - how can they?

 

Leica obviously has significant potential value - its brand, its legacy, its intellectual property, some assets, some profitable divisions. So it requires someone with the ability and vision to capture that and produce reliable long term profits showing large returns on that value. As one company or in parts? In all the same businesses or just some? Time will tell.

[frederick_muller]

Harry, I have not heard that name in decades! I still have my father's Keufel & Esser slider rule that I learned my math on way back when a Texas Instruments SR-51 calculator was a gift from the gods! As lovely as it is, the days of the K&E slide rule are over! I don't think Leica will go the same route ...

[OCULUS New York]

From what I read, Hasselblad is now all but a Fuji/Japanese company. Leica Camera (God, that's redundant) is apart from the medical and high-tech units, and under the wing of LVMH, who still pedals canvas luggage, fountain pens and heaven knows what else at strato prices.

 

I'd guess that the big question is can and will they hang on until they release a genuine M digital? Epson has cut into their thunder with that thing of theirs, but it does remind everybody that it can be done, on time and within some sort of budget--in Japan.

 

Let's hope.

 

Ray Hull

[nee_sung]

Speculation: Hermes is betting that China will grow fast enough in the next few years and buy a lot of Leicas for them to make a fortune.

 

The noveaux riches in China are very brand conscious and they don't trust Japanese goods because they still have the 1950s mentality that Japanese goods are no good. Hermes knows that very well from its experience of selling luxury items.

 

Just my guess.

[Uhooru]

I'm not sure why so many seem to think a digital M and the digital R back will "save" Leica. Given the state of the American dollar, the scale of economics don't seem to add up due to the probitive cost to purchase, and the inability of Leica to bring product out to market at a rate that will keep its digital products competitive. The digital innovations are nice for the current Leica users, but don't you think these users, including myself, tend to think of Leica as our little company here to serve our phtographic desires. Its a great luxary for the few photogs that use them (or, I guess, collect,) but I'm not sure its economically viable in the real world.

[chris_henry1]

Funny that the new Panasonic digitals have lens names like "DC Vario" but no longer carry

the Leica name on the lens.

[nasmformyzombie]

To Mark D<br><br>The Kyocera/Zeiss union, long strained, is all but done. Contax SLR camera and lens production has ceased in Japan. Ironically, the last straw was likely the N Digital, one of the all time failures in the photography business. Hence the 'resurrected' Zeiss Ikon RF with Cosina doing the manufacturing. Once Yashica was absorbed by Kyocera in the early 1980's, Zeiss and Kyocera have increasingly been at odds. This little ditty is taken from the Zeiss Ikon web site, 'We decided to design our own camera body because other cameras simply cannot match the performance standards of our lenses.' Ouch.<br><br> A Leica-Japan venture is probably Leica's only real chance of survival, however, when choosing a partner, one must choose wisely. Me, I'm still puzzled that Panasonic and Leica have not done more business together. With Panasonic joining forces with the 4/3 digital system, let's hope Leica and Panasonic continue to work together and that Leica can make (and actually sell) some reflex lenses!

[jean_.]

There is plenty of market for leica, not just the M. Markets are extremely competitive, margins are ridiculous, and the manufacturers kill themselves getting some kind of USP for their brand. And customers have plenty of $$$ if they feel they get something special. Or how do you explain that everyone lusts after a BMW or Mercedes, given the fact that the oldest and cheapest yugo would serve them as well in the traffic jam? Why pay a fortune for a sony when you can get an equivalent for half the price? Why buy Brioni and Zegna suits?

 

Now leica has a very strong brand, and could easily stress the "made in germany" cult. Make lenses for everyone who cares, just like zeiss does. Camcorders, 4/3 digicams, movie cameras.. launch some innovative digicams like olympus or sony did with waterproof cameras, just to name something. Just design and slap the lens on it, and box it in solms to make it made in germany. Ask a reasonable (not ridiculous) premium for nice design and a luxury brand, and i'll be damned if the folks with the excess $$ won't go for it.

[ron c sunshine coast,qld,a]

i tend to agree and think that the leica name will still sell products well

<P>This financial crises is not nesessarily beatable though! They will have to be much more carefull

[richard_ilomaki]

MY own personal fantasy in this whole mess is that Leica will be absorbed by Konica Minolta, then the REAL M8 can come out and all the lens technology resident in Leica can be used in RFs, Hexars AFs and of course digital cameras. My RF beats any of my Leicas hands down in all respects save finish/paint and red circle.

 

Cheers

[steve_swinehart]

"From what I read, Hasselblad is now all but a Fuji/Japanese company."

 

Shiro Sweden owns Hasselblad. Shiro Sweden is part of the Hong Kong based Shiro Group which is a holding company. Shiro Sweden purchased Imacon making it part of the Shiro Sweden company.

 

Now, please explain what does that have to do with Fuji?

[._._z]

Aside from the fact that its bodies and lenses are almost all made by Fuji?

[gerald_widen]

Apart from the emotional side as Leica users the company going out of business forever wouldn't be that much of a real loss. My IIIc from 1946 is still going strong. My M2 the same as all of my assorted Leica and Canon RF lenses from the same period. They have been making the M6 for over 15 years now and they also will be working for a long time. Leica recently came out with the M7 with auto exposure. Based on their history the next M would probably be 15 years away anyway. They have in the past few years improved all of their lenses including the Summilux 50 so how much improvement can there be in that area? Basically if Leica ceased to exist there would be an assortment of bodies and lenses for everyone probably for the next 50 years. If a Japanese or other company bailed out Leica and produced quality but not quite as good as existing Leica goods, would that really be an improvement?

[ben z]

The orignal Rolleiflex company went bankrupt in 1984. The name Rollei lived on as a nameplate on Samsung point n shoots as well as a line of high-end medium format SLRs that are still being made, and even Cosina made a version of the Bessa under the Rollei name. However most importantly the Rolleiflex TLR continues, updated with modern TTL ambient and flash metering, a better focusing screen, and updated HFT coating on the lens. Recently the Rolleiwide was reintroduced with a better lens than the original had. The latest 80mm version the FX has a new shutter too. These are based on the T model, which was not the top of the line, but that's all the tooling that was left. Considering the substantial interest in Leica, I would suspect that _if_ Leica goes out of business, a similar thing will happen w. respect to the M rangefinder. There might not be enough demand for a full-time company to produce Leicas but definitely enough for a limited-production model to sell well as long as film can be bought. Who knows, perhaps whoever undertakes that will return to making the good eyepiece, and the MP will be an even better camera.

[steve_swinehart]

"Aside from the fact that its bodies and lenses are almost all made by Fuji?"

 

You mean like the 500 series and all those Zeiss lenses? I know the X-Pan and 645 are a Fuji/H-blad design - but almost all? Not really.

[._._z]

No, aside from the fact that its bodies and lenses are *almost* all made by Fuji. They're

only selling one 500-series body nowadays as a sop to tradition, as there are

indications that sales are paltry. The Zeis lenses too are a holdover from the bodies and

lenses and Hasselblad is betting its future on.

 

*That's* what Fuji has to do with it.

[robert_clark]

"They're only selling one 500-series body nowadays as a sop to tradition, as there are indications that sales are paltry."

 

Talking to someone in Jessops in London last Saturday, they claimed the 500 still far outsells the 645. So, please come up with sales figures and not repeated internet gossip, or just keep quiet.

[._._z]

Well, what Jessops sells doesn't necessarily reflect what is sold.

 

I bet they sell a lot of used 500-series, but new? Not that likely.