Where does Nikon go ?

I know... who can answer that kind of question! I guess this is for me a way to

evacuate my frustration following Nikon's recent non-announcement about their

direction going forward. So, I'm not looking for a new prophecy, but just when

is the next probable milestone for a true announcement ? 2008 ? farther ?

<i>Where does Nikon go ?</i>

<p><p>

Well, this year Nikon goes to Alaska and to Chile; next year, to China and to Jerusalem.

<p><p>

But most of the time Nikon stays in Southern California.

<p><p>

Where does Nikon go for you?

Okay, I guess I deserved it :-)

It doesn't take a crystal ball; you can see Nikon's priorities from its PMA announcements- an upgraded D40, another crappy telephoto zoom DX kit lens and some lacklustre digital P&S cameras. Nikon's main interest is getting and keeping shelf space in big box electronics stores like Best Buy and Circuit City. Meeting the needs of pros and prosumers has become an afterthought.

Since Joel brings this up, and now that the PMA has come and gone, this is as good an opportunity as any for me to discuss this.

 

In the month or two before the PMA, there were around 10 threads on various rumors for new Nikon DSLRs, from full 24x36mm frame to 1.1x slight crop. Some even cliamed that their information was "facts" and also criticized me for deleting them. The only one nobody had mentioned well in advance was a 10MP version of the D40, until Ken Rockwell got a bit of leak merely hours before the actual announcement. (The possibility of a D40x was also discussed in other fourms, among a lot of wrong rumors.)

 

The funniest part, at least to me, was that after I had deleted one particular rumor, somehow people from the DPReview Forums managed to recover the post from Google cache and then they added like 10 additional threads there in response to this vaporware FF DSLR. They even speculated that Nikon had pressured photo.net to delete such information, while in fact it is merely what Bob Atkins and I, and to some degree Todd Peach, have been doing all along:

http://forums.dpreview.com/forums/read.asp?forum=1021&message=22300426

 

The problem with these rumors is that people get all excited about these DSLRs and when they don't actually pan out, the disappointment and frustration is severe.

 

As I mentioned in another thread, the D40, D40x, D80 and D200 represent a serious challenge to Canon from the low to medium end, where the market and profit is. Recently, Thom Hogan wisely pointed out that all of the above DSLRs are made in Nikon's Thailand factory, and we don't expect Nikon's factory in Japan is just sitting idle. Since Nikon has been introducing 3, 4 DSLRs a year in the last few years, there should be more to come this year. And given that their consumer line has just been totally overhauled, the next logical area is the high end. However, that is merely an educated guess; I simply don't have any details or dates.

 

Having said that, Nikon will likely remain (way) behind Canon in terms of high-end DSLRs for years to come. If you are a pro or advanced amateur and has a large budget for camera gear, Nikon is not necessarily a good choice, especially if you are impatient and want new toys all the time.

What is also interesting is why the people who claim they actually saw the D3 are not held accountable.

 

It's one thing to start a rumor, but it is outrageous to make lets just say, false claims.

Thanks Shun. I agree with the pre-PMA rumors thing, funny at least, irritating at last... My point is different. I'm a pro, I've been using Nikon gear for more than 25 years, the least I need from Nikon is to understand their direction, understand whether they care about pros, or not. When Canon announce their mark III I need to understand what Nikon is planning to do about it, or not. Just need to know. You may be right, no information is probably not good news, and it may mean they no more care about the pro business. Again, I'd love to understand where they go. I don't want new toys all the time, I just need to figure out how/when to upgrade my gear because that is a must when you make your living with it, no question. Or switch to Canon, you're right, but here again I need information because that's not a trivial move and you don't want to do it unless you need to.

"If you are a pro or advanced amateur and has a large budget for camera gear, Nikon is not necessary a good choice, especially if you are impatient and want new toys all the time."</p>

 

The key word here is </i>impatient.</i> That's really what's behind most of the handwringing you see here and on other forums and the lack of a major DSLR announcement at PMA by Nikon. </p>

 

Let's step back and think about this for a moment, shall we? If you're a pro or serious amateur and heavily invested in Nikon glass, please tell me what type of photography you can't currently accomplish with the D2Xs and D2Hs. (sound of crickets) </p>

 

Would it be nice if we had the full frame choices that Canon shooters have? I guess so, but I'm not pining away for a FF camera (I know there are many who want this). Sure they're better on the wide end, but Nikon's brought out enough wide end choices that there's precious little the vast majority of shooters need that they can't accomplish with the current lineup. </p>

 

Is the Mark III awsome? Damned right it is. I shoot a lot of sports and it certainly has me drooling. But Nikon will, in all likelihood, introduce the D3H by the end of the year. To all the impatient and unsatisfiable Nikonians, it will, of course, be woefully under megapixeled and short on whizz-bang features. To people who actually shoot with them, it will be a great step up from the D2H. </p>

 

Nikon's latest DSLR and financial results have been the best they've produced in decades, if ever. They've now overtaken Canon in Japan as the largest DSLR seller. So to all the hand-wringers teeth-gnashers out there who are perpetually dissatisfied with whatever Nikon puts out, please spare us all, sell your gear and switch to Canon.</p>

 

For the rest of us...patience.

Sorry for the HTML tags.

I am a film person so far who has thought about a serious or semi serious DSLR past my Canon P%S. Our company photographer and every pro shoots Canon and thinks Nikon is a joke. I am no longer asking what should I buy as the answer is obvious.

 

What does dissapoint me is the mediocre lens lines for APS size sensor Canons. In 1960 I bought a Pentax Spotmatic and the kit lens was a 50 1.4. Not great, but not bad either. There was only one quality of lenses, profesional. Today Olympus has 3 or 4, Canon 2, Nikon ?. And the kit lens is not only poor mechanically, the optics are none to great either. I may shoot film Leicas for a long time to come.

On this "way behind" thing I think things should be put in perspective. If say Nikon has $100 million to invest in R and D they can invest most of it in the 1.5 format. Canon most likely has more and they have to decide how much to invest in FF and how much in their DX format.

 

All things being equal Nikon is sure to produce a 1.5 format every bit as good as Canon's DX format.

 

And it is something similar with glass. Nikon has more or less equally great lenses up to 300mm. So for people like myself who can only dream to drop $5000 or more on a body, Nikon, Canon , Pentax are all pretty much equal.

"Please tell me what type of photgraphy you can't currently accomplish with the D2xs and D2h?"

 

Wide-angle photography. I am starting to wind down a book project in China and have just started one in Europe. My D2x is a fine camera and has served me well so far, but the 1.5 crop factor is a serious disadvantage in close confines. My partner had a Canon 5D and it was a serious wakeup call for me, my 17-55 was just not as good as his wide-angle primes, so I left these shots to him.

 

It has gotten to the point where I have bought a 90 mm Nikkor lens for my Crown Graphic, and am looking for a 110 or 120 in the near future, to take over the wide-angle shots from the D2x using 4 x 5" film. This is a lot to carry and I would much rather have a 24 x 36 mm sensor digital camera, to get my wide-angles back. I return to China in November and would appreciate a heads-up from Nikon so that I can make plans accordingly.

Andy, how do you know people are not accountable for spreading rumors? There was one guy who posted the same FF rumor 3, 4 times between January and February. He was banned from photo.net after the first round, but he simply took out additional accounts and posted the same nonsense again and again.

 

I have also e-mail some other asking them why they spreaded those rumors, but so far nobody has even responded.

 

Dan, Canon's 8MP 1D Mark II and IIn have been out-performing the D2H and D2Hs since early 2004, so it has been 3 years and counting that Nikon is way behind in the sport DSLR area. Some stock agencies simply won't accept 4MP images, and they are not acceptable to me also. If you go to any sports event, there is hardly any pro sports photographer who uses Nikon. For pros whose livelyhood depends on their equipment, Nikon simply cannot expect them to wait several years.

 

So Joel, it is up to you to wait a few more months or switch.

I find rumors about upcoming Nikons (or whatever) an amusing read - but seriously, what is the point? Apart from maybe boosting links to you posts/blog or whatever... and the rep may be bad. That Nikon will introduce a new DSLR in the next few months seems probable, let's hope it is not a Nikon D40Xs! I do not know the market, but I doubt you will be able to keep your shareholders happy if you cater mainly to Pros. How many $5000 cameras can you sell? You can sell tons of $300-$600 DSLRs and P/S's to anybody from teens to grannies.

Isn't Nikon using Sony Sensors? I bet if you found out what is the new Sony alpha models, you'll know where Nikon will go....

As a "serious amateur", I'm very happy with Nikon. I would not switch to Canon just to get a 5D, but have considered instead getting a Kodak DCS SLR/n to fill that void. I agree that Nikon is not treating pros the way they should be. It will not stop me from continuing to use Nikon if I ever turn pro -- but that's me and fits my style and the business plan I envision.

 

I am reasonably certain that Nikon will turn a lot of heads later this Summer with a D3 sports camera. I am also pretty certain that Nikon will come out with a 35FF D3 in the not too distant future. Ironically, I am absolutely certain that I will not be able to afford a D3 any time soon. The dilemma for Nikon is that there is not enough of a market for niche cameras (full time pros are a small minority of photographyers) that generate more prestige than profits (although they are profitable if done right).

Shun, I didn't know that that guy was banned because PN didn't make it clear that he had been banned; like that other joker who when he was banned, PN did make it clear that he was a troll.

 

And it may be a bitter pill to swallow but Nikon may never come out with a FF sensor. But think of the great (more affordable) DX bodies that WILL follow the D200.

Ronald, why on earth don't you just buy a 12-24mm lens? That would cost a lot lot less than a full frame body. And a 90mm lens on a Crown Graphic is equal to about 18mm on your D2X... :)

I forget who said that "pros shoot canon and think Nikon is a joke" is full of it!! There is a LOT of pros who shoot canon, it's almost 50/50 really. I am a pro and I shoot Nikon, and am VERY happy with my shooting experiences. It is what you have to show in imagery not in your camera bag :).

"Nikon has more or less equally great lenses up to 300mm."

 

 

No, Nikon doesn't; and as a Nikon shooter, it pisses me off. Canon has a much fuller selection of DX prosumer lenses and non-DX lenses.

 

 

Canon is also upgrading its existing lens line to provide better imaging with its full-frame-sensored DSLRs (e.g. the newly revamped 16-35mm f/2.8L lens). Nikon is isn't expanding its line of good glass, has discontinued many of its manual focus lenses that filled in gaps (e.g. the 24mm f/2.0 AI-S lens), and has discontinued its best wide angle lens, the 28mm f/1.4 AF-D.

Just to clarify my initial post, I do not complain about Nikon gear. As a pro, I found lenses and professional bodies up to the job. I love my D2X bodies, and all Nikon high-end lenses. The D2H needs a replacement though (although a high-speed cropped mode D2X is not so bad after all), and that's where the lack of direction comes into play: will there be a D3H (10meg, 10fps?) or not ? will there be instead a D3X with a higher sensor resolution than the D2Xs' one ? or will there be a new FF line (to be defined) ? Those are the questions I'm not happy Nikon do not give directions about. I can wait once I know where I'm going, but the point is: I don't know!

Eric said:

 

[Andy said:]"Nikon has more or less equally great lenses up to 300mm."

 

"No, Nikon doesn't; and as a Nikon shooter, it pisses me off."

 

My reply:

 

Well, if what you want is "prosumer" lenses; then maybe, but Nikon has many exceptional lenses at the pro and consumer levels. To wit:

 

Wide angle zooms:

 

http://www.photozone.de/8Reviews/lenses/canon_1635_28/index.htm

 

http://www.photozone.de/8Reviews/lenses/nikkor_1735_28/index.htm

 

Mid-range zooms:

 

http://www.photozone.de/8Reviews/lenses/canon_2870_28/index.htm

 

http://www.photozone.de/8Reviews/lenses/nikkor_2870_28/index.htm

 

Telephoto zooms:

 

http://www.photozone.de/8Reviews/lenses/canon_70200_28/index.htm

 

http://www.photozone.de/8Reviews/lenses/nikkor_70200_28vr/index.htm

 

28mm primes:

 

http://www.photozone.de/8Reviews/lenses/canon_28_18/index.htm

 

http://www.photozone.de/8Reviews/lenses/nikkor_28_2_ais/index.htm

 

100mm-105mm primes:

 

http://www.photozone.de/8Reviews/lenses/canon_100_2/index.htm

 

http://www.photozone.de/8Reviews/lenses/nikkor_105_2dc/index.htm

 

180mm-200mm macros:

 

http://www.photozone.de/8Reviews/lenses/canon_180_35/index.htm

 

http://www.photozone.de/8Reviews/lenses/nikkor_200_4/index.htm

 

300mm primes:

 

http://www.photozone.de/8Reviews/lenses/canon_300_4/index.htm

 

http://www.photozone.de/8Reviews/lenses/nikkor_300_4/index.htm

 

I would have compared Nikon's 18-200 to whatever Canon has, but Canon doesn't have anything to match it.

 

Having quickly looked at these reviews just now, I'm more pleased than ever with my choice to shoot Nikon (it was a lucky coincidence).

Joel, Nikon will certainly upgrade its high-end DSLRs, but their focus is correctly on the low-end for the time being, and high-end DSLRs will be updated at a much slower pace. Again, if you are the type that don't like to wait, it is best to switch to Canon. Sometimes the wait can be really long and frustrating. For example, Canon has had VR on their long teles since 1999. Now 7+ years later, there is still no VR on the 400mm/f2.8, 500 and 600mm/f4. When Canon introduced the 8MP 1D Mark II sports DSLR in February, 2004, one would think Nikon should response within a year, but that we 3+ years ago and also counting.

"It's one thing to start a rumor, but it is outrageous to make lets just say, false claims."

 

And yet, the tabloids have made it an industry. I wonder if it's more outrageous for us to get

too upset about it. I think false claims and rumors are about the same thing.

 

Remember, "You can't believe everything you read" also applies to the internet. Often we

forget this when we read something we really want to be true. Human nature I guess...

Peter said:

 

"I think false claims and rumors are about the same thing."

 

My reply:

 

I don't; the latter is silly and the former is lying. I prefer silly people to liars.

Anthony,

 

Then you REALLY must hate silly liars...

 

;-)

 

Just kidding, we all need to laugh every now and then. But since I don't shoot or buy pro

gear, it doesn't get my goat as much anyway...