When film is really dead, what will film Leicas be worth?

In 5, 10, 20, or who knows how many years, I'd assume film will be about as

rare as all of the other photographic technologies from the past.

 

At that point, will Leicas, Hassys and Rolleiflexes be nothing more than paperweights, or will they

be valuable antiques? I ask from a practical standpoint... because I have half a dozen

film cameras that I enjoy using, but don't wish to lose all of my cash investment

on them. From the looks of it lenses will still be valuable, but what about camera

bodies?

 

What do you think?

<p>I think your pimary mistake is in using the words "investment" and "camera" in the same sentence. It's not quite as bad as using "investment" and "boat" together, but it's close. If you really do see your inventory of film cameras as an investment (meaning, something meant to increase in value over time), it may indeed be time to simply sell them while you can, and buy some gold to put in the same cabinet where you've been keeping the camera bodies.<br /><br />If the primary return on your investment is the pleasure you get while using a certain type of device as you make photographs, then the cash value is irrelevent.</p>

<p>There was a Leica Collectors Society report that said only 20% of new Leica film bodies (New meaning M7, or maybe M6, I guess) ever had film run through them. They warned of diminishing the collectable value by scratching or scuffing the lens mount or film plate in an attempt to use the camera.</p>

<p>Now, I guess that a certain number of "famous people" still have to use the cameras every now and then, to maintain the "mystique" that allows the unused or more "lightly used" cameras to maintain their "investment value" (sorry, Matt, couldn't resist). And there will always be a small B&W film industry. Literally, it only takes one or two people to coat and cut primitive B&W film, so as long as a backing material is available (I think usable clear film will be manufactured well through the next century, for things like report covers and comic book storage bags). So, I think that there's always going to be someone famous and retro shooting the things to maintain some collectable market.</p>

<p>The most vulnerable will be people like you, who will create a glut on the market with more heavily used and less rare machines, as you become less satisfied with the remaining B&W films, or moan the loss of color (about 2015, by any decent projection).</p>

So, if the demise of film is inevitable, colour in 2015 we hear, off- loading two or three Leicas or Hasselblads now is

best, not so much as to limit the loss on the financial investment (never considered them investments myself either)

but to limit the pain of holding them when they become useless. At that point you couldn't give me a Leica - I wouldn't

want it. I consider that all my cameras heve more than returned my investment and accept already that they owe me

nothing. I have three offices and one of my three Leicas can indeed be paperweights on each desk and the other

cameras might as well go in the bin. Thinking about this I realize that I would mostly enjoy retaining the M2 and M5

and my trusty M6 has never had the same status, just a perfect workhorse. Loyalty would prevent me throwing that

out. Keeping a whole lot of cameras is burdensome even now. Once they're less valuable they are slightly more

versatile. The beauty of paperweights is that they are seen, held, moved and admired and the don't go mouldy or take

up shelf space. In fact, I can think of a new pastime with these worthless Leicas: stripping them down and putting them back together again. A friend of mine and I used to do this regularly as teenagers with his father's decommissioned Luger.

Gotta go with Matt on this one, do you shoot or do you collect? How old are you, are your eyes going to be up to the

task of shooting in 20 years? Because black and white will most likely outlive you and me, so I guess think about what

is most important to you? Return on your hardware investment as a hobby shooter or return on something more

valuable as a human being: How you spend your time while living....

<p>Ray, you should sell it all now while you can. (despite the fact that film sales are somewhat up according to the LCS)</p>

Daniel, I did say I shoot with them. Shooting and seeing the results is just about what I live for. Almost.

Very funny Barry..

<p>I read in the paper the other day that film sales are increasing as is the business of film processing. Apparently ever growing numbers of people are fed up with just snapping and want the whole photography experience. (A Leica 0 fetched £1,100.000 recently.)</p>

<p>Cold stored low and medium speed B&W films, are good for 10-20 years. When they announce the end of production, stock up on film and chemicals.</p>

<p>Kodak is producing brand new films, most notably the new Portra. In the wedding industry, film is currently thriving. So I think any predictions about film "being rare" are premature. Even if, for the sake of argument, the major players stopped producing film altogether, there will be a market for film and other manufacturers will pick up the slack.</p>

<p>Ray I predict you and I will both be well passed it by the time film is no longer made. According to Samy's, film sales have stabilized and have increased. Films have been discontinued, but new films are also on the market. A lot of the more serious photographer have gone back to including film in their bag of tools. Look how many people are buying those fantastic rangefinder Mamiyas.</p>

<p>There's always something new to replace the old. People still ride, breed and race horses in spite of the ubiquitous automobile and airplanes, and (this weekend) Indianapolis 500. I suspect that film cameras will be around quite a while...some for serious users, some for novelty posers. If you're looking at the bodies as an investment...you will probably be sorely disappointed, the rates of return on camera bodies (in general) has been far surpassed by lowly treasury bills and CDs, not to mention equities. In other words....don't count on them to fund your retirement. Just enjoy them for what they were intended...taking pictures.</p>

<p>Mine will be worth <em>a lot</em> because I will be famous and dead by then, not necessarily in that order.</p>

<p>I agree with Barry. Ray, I don't want you to lose any sleep over this so I will be happy to drop by and take the whole mess off your hands!<br>

Seriously though, I'm also optimistic on b&w film being around for the foreseeable future. True film sales are up (despite the sharp spike in prices due to the cost of raw silver shooting up) but from what I've heard this is in large part due to the Holga and Lomography trend right now. Once the hipsters find a new fad, film sales may drop. Nevertheless, whenever I use a local college darkroom, it's always packed with students so there is hope.</p>

<p>My own personal concern is with finding reliable people to repair and maintain my film cameras. When I decided to start shooting 135 film again I purchased a Nikon F2 from a local camera show. (Sorry, no Leicas for me, I just can't get the hang of the range finder thing). I had that camera overhauled three times by two different places and the thing still malfunctioned. I finally bought a second body (at half the price I paid for the first) and with no servicing it's been working great. I guess I just got a lemon with the first body.</p>

<p>I also shoot a RZ67 ProII quite extensively and I was very lucky to have the only factory trained tech on the west coast just a 15 minute drive from my place. He was very reasonably priced and even would check the accuracy of my leaf shutters at no charge. However, He hasn't been at work for months. His shop is still there (he sublets a space in a motion picture lighting facility) and according to the guys who work in the warehouse, they still get calls from people to inquire about a repair but they have no idea when he's going to come back to work. It's frustrating because he's the only person I trust with my Mamiya gear since he didn't have anything positive to say about the factory Mamiya repair in New York.</p>

<p>So I think what will finally kill off film is a scarcity of usable film cameras and people who can work on them.</p>

<p>hmm... there might be a living to be made, shooting old cameras... especially those belonging to famous and dead people...</p>

<p>I know a lot of guys in there 20s who learned on digital and are now switching to film. I think the market for film for years to come. Quite a few of my friends are buying and shooting old Hasselblads and Leicas that are way older than they are. </p>

<p>sorry double post</p>

 

I remember back in the 80s people kept speculating about what would happen to Iran after Khomeini died. Some wag pointed out that we might want to wait for his mother to die first.

 

As I've said somewhere here before, you can still buy newly manufactured typewriters, carbon paper, vacuum tubes, vinyl records (and cartridges and needles for your turntable), and buggy whips (by the way, if you Google that one, turn safe search on. Coachmen are NOT the primary market for them anymore...)

 

I'm very confident that I can beat the demographic average lifespan by a wide margin and still never have to confront the inability to get film for my Leicas.

<p>Just because digital has become the <strong>medium of choice</strong> does not eliminate the wet process. The use of film and film cameras will "just" become relegated to a craft or art... similar to the role of intaglio or serigraphy.</p><div></div>

<p>We retail film at our store (<a href="http://www.propix.in">http://www.propix.in</a>), and I personally still shoot film every so often, even though my daily go-to cameras are both Nikon full frame. The film that we move most, surprisingly, are various Ilford and Fujifilm black & white. We sell about hundred 35mm rolls and about 20 to 40 rolls of 120. All this, because a lot of our customers, ranging in the agegroup of 20 and 50 want to shoot film before it disappears. Most of them say the same thing, that there is "something" about the tonalities that digital is still not able to reproduce.<br>

We get occassional film cameras for CLA, and most of them including the Leica and Zeiss show wear and scuffing from regular use.<br>

The point I'm trying to make is that film is alive, right now, and well. Not the way it used to be, but still going strong. I think the internet also is helping keep it alive as more digital generation shooters switch to film to try it out and to experience the difference.<br>

I persoanlly use film for some wedding pics and also when I am doing some architectural and industrial shoots.<br>

For that time when film will no longer be available, I am stocking up film in the refrigerator. Lots of different film...:)</p>

<p>I think Marc said it best, or at least addressed the main issue. Who will be able to repair them? This is a supply and demand country. If people want it, someone will provide it. There will alway be societies devoted to preserving film, processing, printing. I can't imagine the end of film in my lifetime. Photography didn't end the era of painters....Film has it's audience, as does digital...Some of us even love two mints in one...</p>

<p><strong>Ray</strong>,</p>

<p>just don't think about it. We know that you use it (<a href="../photo/1881305">your PoW</a> is in my opinion one of the most deserved). I only shoot film and I don't think about the future. Most likely there will be film around for many decades, but in any case there is no way for the individual consumer to influence anything, so I plainly forget about it. As long as I can find (and I do find) reasonably priced film it will be fine, and once film will no longer be there - if I still photograph - we will see.</p>

<p>Thinking about the "market" I would consider one thing: the digital technology has caused an explosion of the number of photos taken: the whole process is easily completed by the photographer-consumer.</p>

<ul>

<li>before the digital age a large part of the budget had to go into film, processing, proofing and printing some of the good ones;</li>

<li>now the main budget goes into the camera and producing pictures is nearly at no cost.</li>

</ul>

<p>I'm inclined to think that the high-level photographers using film have not declined that much, it's more that all, or most of every-day-photographers (or vacation shooters) do not buy any low-end film anymore.</p>

<p>But the film market is segmented as any market, and there will be hardly any influence from the low-end use to the high-end use. To be more clear: those shooting Kodak Color Gold have never influenced the numbers made by Velvia, and probably even less the black-and-white film demand.</p>

<p>Unfortunately I don't have any numbers, but if the former Agfa production has revived, if Ilford is doing well, if there is film from Kodak, Fuji, Efke, etc. there must be enough demand.</p>

<p>We should not confuse the explosion in the numbers of digital images with the numbers of high-end colour or black and white film.</p>

<p>The loss of low-end users and their relatively higher numbers has probably made the market more efficient: in production and in retail sales. The best deals on film I do on-line and this means something.</p>

<p>So don't worry and keep on putting film into your Leicas. As I do.</p>

<p>L.</p>

<p>You're asking the right question about the wrong medium. You should be asking "when I dig up that DVD of digital photos 10-20 years in the future, what do I do with it?"</p>

There are still people shooting on glass plates, large format, daguerrotypes, you name it, and those technologies are much, much older than the standard 35mm film canister, and the cameras much less common. I think the `end of film' will be well beyond our lifetime. They still sell paints and brushes, don't they?