Tired of waiting for a D4 - D3s?

Discussion in 'Nikon' started by andrew_holman|1, Sep 30, 2011.

  1. I currently have a D700 with grip that I have loved for 2+ years and have had a D4 fund ready to go for a while now but getting tired of waiting for Nikon. I am a wedding shooter and shoot at least 50 weddings and other commercial projects each year. I feel that my workhorse D700 is getting tired and ready to be put into 2nd camera backup duty.
    Should I just get a D3s in the meantime? I allow myself a new camera every year or two - but not sure if it is worth it to wait. I am waaay overdue.
    I doubt I would sell the D3s as the D700 & D300 would likely go if I ever get the D4, whenever that is.
    D@mnit Nikon, you are making this really hard!
    Thoughts, opinions, suggestions?
     
  2. the only way to speed Nikon's release of the D4 is if you purchase a D3 RIGHT NOW so help us all out :)
     
  3. pge

    pge

    You should wait. Your D700 is not tired, you are just tired of it. You have NAS. Have a drink, breath deeply, relax and your D700 will serve you well for a long time yet.
     
  4. I should mention that it is also a tax thing as well so I can write it off for this year. Any rumors for a 2010 D4 release? If not, I might just go for it. My D700 is just not as snappy as it once was. I should mention that as of today it has a shutter count of 170252.
    NAS?
     
  5. Any rumors for a 2010 D4 release?​
    I think, at this point, we can safely conclude that Nikon will not release a D4 in 2010.
     
  6. This is just my $0.02, you can have change if you like :)
    The D700 seems to have stopped production many months ago (maybe that's common knowledge but I don't keep up on it too much) no one has had inventory of it for some months and now it's the same with the D3s. They're all back ordered and unavailable... meaning Nikon needs to get something to market yesterday, and they fully expected to have it on the market by this time.
    The camera that makes the most sense to release first is the D4, maybe Nikon will pick up those waiting for the D800 w/extra money. I don't think it makes as much sense to release both at/near the same time and have the D800 interfere with sales of the D4.
    Either way, it should've been released months ago especially now that Nikon has had no inventory of the D700 or D3s for some time now they need something.
     
  7. Andrew, nobody knows when Nikon is supposing to release a D4. Definitely many are impatient and have the funds at hand so I guess that It would be hard for months to get it after the announcement.
    If money are not a big problem for you, and seems to not be, go for D3s and be happy with it. D3s is already a huge step up and if next year you'll go for D4 it will make a perfect combo.
    IMHO D4 will be at least a 24 MP camera because of the crazy race of MP. I have a hard time to believe that Nikon can double the number of pixels keeping the same good ISO behavior like in D3s. So you'll have a 12MP camera with great behavior in low light and a state of the art 24 MP camera (or whatever will be) with the last bells and whistles, bla, bla, bla... And in the meantime you will enjoy a great camera (D3s) helping the economy, helping Nikon and helping our dreams :)
    Later edit: @Arthur - Nikon Europe is constantly feeding Nikon Romania with D3s and D700. So I guess that the two are still in production. US market is much bigger and probably the supply is not enough and you have the impression that the production ceased. I believe Nikon will offer these bodies as long will be a request on the market. Believe me or not but you can still buy D90 new here.
     
  8. Not in 2010?... That's just a malicious rumour.....You should be ashamed of yourself for making so-many Nikonistas sad... ;-)
     
  9. ok, well then I guess it is time to get my new D3s. Would the D3s be a big step up from the D700?
    Also, as a NPS member I usually get first shot at new releases - but not that it really means anything in this case. :)
     
  10. If you allow yourself a new camera every year or two, why not just get a D3s now, and get the next one whenever it exists. The worst that could happen is if the replacement comes out in a few months, you will not have the latest and greatest for "a year or two", but a crappy outdated D3s instead.
     
  11. Maybe the reason no one has, or is out of stock of the D 700, is the earthquake that hit Japan.
    As Shun has pointed out several times, all of the camera makers suffered damage to their facilities, and may not yet be back to full production yet.
    And that may also be why Nikon has not come out with a new D4.
     
  12. Hmm, Why not a second D700 for the time being, two D700's cannot be a bad situation....
     
  13. Hello Andrew,

    I would say buy a camera based on need, and if you feel you need a new body based on the work you're getting then
    get the D3s. I sort of went through this last month, albeit with DX equipment. I was starting to get some paid gigs (not
    weddings, but photoshoots and sporting events) and needed a camera to have in case my D90 started acting up.
    There's "supposedly" a "D400" coming out soon and the D7000 was available, but I opted for the D300s because
    based on my needs the D7000 wasn't enough (slower fps for sports). I'm very happy with the D300s and I'm glad I
    bought it because I don't know when Nikon will release a follow-on. Whatever Nikon releases, I'm sure the D3s will
    serve you very well (if you need it today).
     
  14. hmm, i have a D3s right now. it's a pretty solid camera. i dont think it will be obsoleted by a D4, but who knows? i think it comes down to technical capacity. how much do you really need? and do you need the D3s' advantages? besides being sexier, i mean.
    if we're being practical, getting another d700 is a much more sensible option, since you can share batteries and the grip with your current camera, and save some of your NAS slush fund for the D4 announcement, at which point you have the option of upscaling to either a d4 or a (price-adjusted) D3s.
    it's also worth noting that you could get 2xd7k for the price of one d700.
    $5k is a lot to spend on a body. my advice, if you're doing this for work, is to get exactly what you need and nothing you dont, while keeping costs down and revenues high.
     
  15. ShunCheung

    ShunCheung Administrator

    I think part of the problem is that the constant drumbeat about new cameras from those rumor sites is creating a lot of unrealistic expectations. (I, too, am somewhat guilty about that as I thought Nikon would update the D7000 last year and discussed that a few times.) The fact of the matter is that FX-format DSLR have much longer production cycles. Believe it or not, the most recently introduced FX-format DSLR from any manufacturer is actually the D3S, in October 2009. Sony hasn't introduced anything recently and the latest Canon "full frame" is the 5D Mark II from 2008.
    Will this "D4" obsolote the D3S? Since I have no idea how this D4 is like, there is no way to tell. But I think it is quite clear that the D3 serious is getting pretty old. The new Nikon 1 mirrorless cameras give us the hint that AF on DSLRs can be much better in the near future, so I am going to wait. Personally, I have no intend to buy another DSLR with the Multi-CAM 3500 AF system.
    In the OP's case, if that D700 has over 170K actuations, I would spend a few hundred dollars to replace the shutter. Even though it may become a backup camera in the near future, you want to be reasonably sure that it is not going to fail in the middle of some wedding.
     
  16. These cameras make me all my $$. The D700 has been great, I just am thinking that I can get a bit better with the D3s - especially with faster focusing in low light, which I find myself in a lot. Sending off to get the shutter replaced is not a reality right now considering I am just entering my busy season. If the D4 was out, or even announced, this would not be a issue. Sure, 5K is a lot of $$ but one wedding pays for it and equipment problems are much more costly on the day of a wedding....
     
  17. As the announcement price of the D3 was $6400 and we now have the D3S at approx $5500 I can't see a hyperthetical D4 coming in at less than $6400. Even used D3's are getting $5k+ on the used market. And to me thats just too much. I can afford to pay that but I can't see logic for me. I don't use a lot of actuations as I mainly do portraits and landscapes and the D700 does everything I could ever need.
    I picked up a D700 and MBd10 for $2500 earlier this year. Now, the body only price has climbed to $2700. I get the feeling that Nikon is playing with us, trying to match dwindling inventory to markets that will still sustain that higher pricing. And thats just good inventory management.
    On longevity, I think the high end market is getting a bit tired of the depreciation factor. Prior to digital and that for me was in 2006, I bought and used only 3 Nikons starting from 1978 and used them all day, every day. The last one I bought was the F4s and I got ten years out of that. I still have them all and still used them. They show no signs of dropping further in value. Now we are led to believe we need to upgrade every 2-3 years with bodies costing more than $5500 at least. It seems that this is foisted on us by Nikon and Canon only. I always said that Sony have the price right with their FX DSLR offering but let down by poor firmware execution. That may change if the NEX 7 is as good as rumoured. If you can put a decent lens in front of the 24mp sensor in a NEX 7, why pay through the nose for a big body unless you do sports etc? For more static photography, the NEX 7 may be quite good enough.
    Whatever happens, there will always be unpredictability in the market...its just that with digital, the obsolescence factor makes it even harder.
     
  18. Shun said:
    Believe it or not, the most recently introduced FX-format DSLR from any manufacturer is actually the D3S, in October 2009. Sony hasn't introduced anything recently and the latest Canon "full frame" is the 5D Mark II from 2008.​
    Well that's a healthy reminder, Shun. Kinda puts things in perspective. Initially, I was very tentative about my D3s purchase last spring. But a month after the earthquake, I found a refurb for $4,250, and jumped on it, thinking that the supply of FX bodies coming out of Japan would be severely depressed for at least six months.
    Also, despite the rabid rumors swirling about the internet regarding soon-to-be-announced FX bodies, prior to the quake, I didn't really expect a new FX body until Q1 2012 at the earliest. Meaning, as a non-NPS member, I likely wouldn't have a new 'D4' in my hot little hands until summer, 2012, at the earliest. I wasn't willing to wait, then, possibly a whole year, so I went ahead and bought the refurbed D3s. Certainly glad I did, in retrospect.
    Maybe later this year, I'll have enough photo assignments to warrant a second FX body, but in the meantime, I've pressed my D7000 into service as a second body. I just received my new (used) AF-S Nikkor 17-55mm f/2.8 DX zoom in the mail today, and only just tried it out a few minutes ago outside. Wow! What a performer! Even on DX, I'm able shallow up my depth-of-field. And, with it, the D7000 looks great, and the only "problem" is the less than D3-class/D300-class motordrive speed. At an event last week, I used the D7000 as a second body for closer, flash-fired arrivals. Yes, the slower FPS was a slight handicap. But, other than that, the D7000 performed extremely well as a second body.
    But when a new D4 is announced, I expect only a modest increase in pixel-count, while maintaining D3s-class, high-ISO performance (otherwise, PJs worldwide will be on a mad scramble for the remaining D3s').
     
  19. Stephan said:
    As the announcement price of the D3 was $6400 and we now have the D3S at approx $5500 I can't see a hyperthetical D4 coming in at less than $6400.​
    Another good point. A new D4 could easily be priced much higher than the D3s' previous selling price of $5,200. I'm thinking something like, $5,799 (once the dust settles). Maybe more?
     
  20. Stephan said:
    Now, the [D700] price has climbed to $2700.​
    BestBuy was reported to be selling the D700 for just over $2,200 a few weeks ago (now it's back up to $2,699). The Nikon Store has D700s in stock from time to time for only $2,159. When on the hunt for something like that, I just insert the URL as my default site in my browser so I'm sure to check on it every day.
     
  21. stp

    stp

    Really, the only logical thing to do at this point is to sell all of your Nikon gear and go with Canon. In a few years (during the next grand oscillation), you can do it all over again and get back to Nikon.
     
  22. I have been waiting since fall of last year for the next gen FX bodies with the plan of buying two of them, if they were good cameras. Last week I purchased a second D700 after spending about 1500 on renting second bodies. I have finally come to the decision that the next gen FX body announcement plus actual availability time plus lag time for Aperture to be able to handle the RAW files will place next gen FX functionality sometime mid next year.
    I had no difficulty getting one through Calumet Photographic (about 2-3 weeks). Between now and time to next gen functionality, I will save about 1500 and I will sell one of the D700 to recover the remaining difference and end up even or a bit ahead.
    Only wish I had made this decision last year when I realized I really needed a second D700 body.
    Moral: If you really need it, and can afford it, don't play the waiting game for the next gen body. You may win. And you may not win.
     
  23. I'm actually thinking about selling my nikon gears...What's a super low clicked d700 worth in 10/11?
     
  24. The D700 seems to have stopped production many months ago
    I doubt this is the case. All the FX cameras can be purchased easily in Finland (just walk downtown to pick one up); if there is not one in stock you can get one in a week by placing an order at the nearest camera store. The same seems to be the case in other European countries. The large US stores don't get as many as they'd like but that seems to be a US-specific problem. If something isn't in stock you can usually still get one by placing an order in a store that doesn't have a long list and that sells a lot of Nikon gear, and waiting it out.
    As to the topic of the new upcoming FX cameras, there is no overwhelming competitive pressure for Nikon to make a move at this point. Nikon's D3s and X are leading performers in their categories. I would expect to see a faster processor, new, significantly improved autofocus, more pixels, and minor improvements to the user interface in a D4. However it would not surprise me if the expected fall 2011 release were delayed by 6-12 months due to the situation in Japan.
     
  25. I am about to sell my D2X and Canon 1Ds because I have given up on both Nikon and Canon and gone ahead and bought a new Canon 5D II for less than $2000 up here in Canada. When the new Nikon and Canon products finally come out I won't see much depreciation from that price! Heck, most eBay auctions go higher than that for used ones.
    Just picked up the 5D II last night and all I really know right now is that my Nikon 8mm f2.8 mounts and shoots with no mirror interference. So my Nikon 400/2.8 AIS won't be a problem either.
     
  26. The technology of DSLR is at its bottle neck stage. I have tried D3s and liked the camera a lot. But given the price, size and depreciation factors, I passed on. At the same time, I wonder how Nikon and Canon can roll out a new model with big improvement. To me, the answer is no. With the introduction of V1 and J1 by Nikon, I can see they are changing the direction, and DSLR will soon be on the down hill track if not immediately.
     
  27. Let me see... you're shooting 50 weddings a year with one FX body that has 170,000+ clicks on it? That's a bit too monastic for your own good. A D300 is a good camera - but your glass is probably geared to FX and the D300 is at least one or two stops worse than the D700 in terms of noise/DR/color etc, you won't shoot the event the same way as you would with a D700 and will be giving your clients less than your best.
    My $0.02 worth - You've put it off long enough. Get some insurance. If you buy a D3s now it will still be taking incredible photos for you in 2 or 3 years time when you have run it up to 200,000 clicks. I'm guessing that when the D4 comes out it will be months before the backlog is satisfied and you can be assured you will get one. In addition, every new product has some sort of teething problems - even Nikons and you probably couldn't afford to send your shiny new D4 back if some sort of recall were to happen. My guess is that Nikon's pro service would probably struggle to keep everybody happy in that situation. They would do triage and support the folks that buy two or more bodies a year ahead of the folks that buy one body every two years. They would have to.
    If you can't find a dealer in the US with any D3s bodies in stock, I think you can still find a D3s here: https://www.thecamerastore.com/products/cameras/digital-cameras/digital-slr-cameras/nikon-d3s-body
     
  28. Ok, decision made. I think I knew it all along, but needed some final advice. My D700 served me well and I liked the D300 - but time to move on. I ordered a D3s and and pretty damn excited. I will probably get the D4 when it comes out anyway, and the D3s will be a great 2nd. :)
    Thanks for the feedback!
     
  29. ShunCheung

    ShunCheung Administrator

    The D3S will give you at least another stop at high ISO, perhaps a bit more. I am sure that is helpful for weddings. When I tested the original D3, I shot a wedding with it and my arm was a little sore after a full day holding the D3 with a 24-70 and 70-200mm/f2.8 AF-S.
    I still would suggest Andrew to get the shutter on the D700 replaced. It should be easier once you have the D3S as your main camera.
    And as soon as Andrew's D3S is no longer new and therefore not returnable, Nikon will announced the D4, perhaps later on this month .... :) I am pretty sure that there will be a D4 before the London Olympics in 2012.
     
  30. Shun, spreading rumours? You should ban yourself... ;P
    One question, if D3s was the latests FX body on the market, how comes that is becoming obsolete? If someone else brings more features then I would agree, until then the D3s is the state of the art.
     
  31. I ordered a D3s and and pretty damn excited.
    Good for you! I have seen amazing quality from that camera in concert photos at ISO 6400. It also has the quiet mode which is nice to have when there is a moment of silence indoors and you don't want to disrupt it any more than necessary. (No, it won't still be as quiet as a D7000 or a mirrorless camera, but still an improvement.)
     
  32. ShunCheung

    ShunCheung Administrator

    One question, if D3s was the latests FX body on the market, how comes that is becoming obsolete?​
    I wouldn't describe the D3S as "obsolete," but given that the D7000 and even D5100 can shoot 1080p HD video while the D3S is 720p, and the D7000/D5100 have much better contrast-detect AF for live view and video, it is clear that the D3S' technology, at least in the video area, is no longer state of the art.
    At least based on the description, the V1 and J1 have even better constrast-detect AF. I am looking forward to seeing how Nikon applies such technology on their (high-end) DSLRs. Hopefully I'll get to test a J1/V1 soon.
    In this high-tech era, 4 years is an eternity. The Canon 1Ds Mark III was introduced like 4 days before the D3 back in August 2007. With 4 more years of technological advances, I am sure that both Canon and Nikon will produce much improved cameras to succeed those two.
     
  33. Contrast detect AF requires the mirror to be out of the way. If it is to be used for still photography that means the
    camera will be with an EVF or a hybrid EVF/OVF. I personally am not ready to have the windscreen of my car
    replaced with an LCD, either, but this is what I expect to see in a D4. I would prefer to see the optical viewfinder
    improved, instead. In particular I would like them to take out the LCD overlay alltogether so that the crispness of the optical image is restored and manual focus and visual confirmation of focus is restored.

    This is exactly the kind of development that some are worried about - the still camera is sacrificed for improved video.
     
  34. To clarify, I think that the contrast and phase-detect hybrid AF is an exciting prospect for some applications of still photography; the focus point can be selected more freely and the electronic viewfinder may show e.g. the color histogram and the image at the same time. Nikon even has a patent on a VF which utilizes a secondary lens that shows a wider angle of view than the primary lens. This allows the photographer to see the main image in the center and a "zoomed-out" image around it so that they can better predict movement into the frame before it happens e.g. in soccer. But I wonder how good the quality of the viewfinder image will be. I think it would be better if they made one model with the hybrid AF and hybrid VF, and another, which is a more traditional DSLR for those of us who prefer a high-quality, delay-free optical image and preferably no overlay that would reduce the brigtness and clarity of the optical viewfinder image. The fast model (i.e. D4H could be the one with the hybrid AF) and then the more still-oriented camera (D4X) would be with high-resolution sensor and OVF only. But I suspect Nikon is primarily interested in the action photography market and everything is centered around it.
     
  35. Andrew said:
    I ordered a D3s and and pretty damn excited.​
    Congrats! You're gonna love it! You can shoot clouds at night at ISO 5,000, handheld, and still be satisfied with the image. I'm sure the D4 won't be readily available until summer 2012. Who knows? They may increase the pixels and lose a half-stop of sensitivity, and the D3s will be as hard to find used at a decent price as a used SB-800! Enjoy your new camera!
     
  36. Thanks all! It should be here tomorrow or Tuesday.
    I have heard the same projections from dealers and insiders about the D4 as well - spring 2012 announcement and a summer availability. Makes sense with the issues that Japan had recently.
     
  37. Who knows? They may increase the pixels and lose a half-stop of sensitivity, and the D3s will be as hard to find used at a decent price as a used SB-800! Enjoy your new camera!​
    Ralph, may be I wrong, but I think it is safe to say that Nikon won't be presenting a D4 if it isn't a substantial leap forward respect the previous model. One only has to look at the F3, F4, F5, D1, D2, D3 progression. Each one of them was a tremendous improvement over the previous.
    Also we have to think about the D3 average user which is a full time professional. Nobody is going to spend some thousands dollars to buy a D4 if the features are similar to the D3.
    Its my impression, again I could be wrong, that the D3s/D3x production cycle it is going to be longer than the D1 and D2 models. I see those as transitional models and D3 models more "finished". Sure they have some issues in video mode but they are hard to fault for still photography.
     
  38. Breogan said:
    Ralph, may be I wrong, but I think it is safe to say that Nikon won't be presenting a D4 if it isn't a substantial leap forward respect the previous model. One only has to look at the F3, F4, F5, D1, D2, D3 progression. Each one of them was a tremendous improvement over the previous.​
    I would tend to agree.
    Also we have to think about the D3 average user which is a full time professional. Nobody is going to spend some thousands dollars to buy a D4 if the features are similar to the D3.​
    Again, agreed.
    Its my impression, again I could be wrong, that the D3s/D3x production cycle it is going to be longer than the D1 and D2 models. I see those as transitional models and D3 models more "finished". Sure they have some issues in video mode but they are hard to fault for still photography.​
    Yes, I totally agree. I actually think Nikon is going to keep the D700 and D3s as current-production models for longer than most would like to think, especially in light of information contained in a certain recent rumor.
    I think Nikon will release two more FX bodies within the next several months, but they may not necessarily be D700 and D3s replacements, per se. They may only be higher-MP competitors to current and expected Canon bodies, and will have the dual purpose of also closing the video gap created by Canon.
     
  39. ShunCheung

    ShunCheung Administrator

    Ralph, I am sure Nikon will introduce a D4 very soon, at least 6 months prior to the London Olympics to work out the bugs before the big event. That will not be a D3S "replacement"; instead, it will be a D3S killer and all of those recent D3S you guys paid $5200+ for will immediately become obsolote and worthless. I have been telling people all along to hold off buying those D3S, but you guys didn't listen. :)
     
  40. Shun, If you are right it won't be long before we find out... As a strict amateur I am extremely happy with my D200, no worries here. ;-P
     
  41. Obsolete and worthless? So, with that logic all of the shots taken with a D3s are the same?
    For me it is a tool that makes me money and supports my family. A 5K body is nothing compared to the money that my clients drop for a wedding. It would be hard for me to explain to them after a camera failure that I didn't have a newer camera with less shutter actuations because I was waiting for the latest and greatest. I would gladly spend 10K to avoid that pain and stress.
    I have a feeling that this D3s will serve me quite well for several years, and when the D4 gets announced - you better believe I will be taking advantage of my NPS membership and pre-ordering. But, I am not holding my breath or feeling like I am missing out on something.
    I have been hearing these, "D4 coming soon!" rumors for so long now that I don't believe what anyone says/heard/predicts anymore. I just got tired of waiting and rather than get 2 D4's, I'll have a crappy D3s as my backup/2nd body. :)
     
  42. Shun said:
    That will not be a D3S "replacement"; instead, it will be a D3S killer and all of those recent D3S you guys paid $5200+ for will immediately become obsolote and worthless. I have been telling people all along to hold off buying those D3S, but you guys didn't listen. :)
    Damn! I just knew I shouldn't have bought that crummy 'ole D3s, when a D4 was right around the corner. Seriously, I expect an impressive effort on Nikon's part with their next flagship FX body, a.k.a., a 'D4.' I also expect a rather impressive price. Perhaps as much as $6,400 USD?
     
  43. Initial impressions: The D3s is a beast. Not new news, I know, but for me and the work I do it *SMOKES* the D700 in every sense. The faster and more accurate focus, the low light image quality, the faster drive, brighter viewfinder, the ergonomics...I could go on. It just sounds more professional. Well worth 5K. I now use the D700 with my 70-200 but almost want a 2nd D3s to replace it. Of course I'll hold off and wait for the D4 announcement - but wow, what an improvement. For landscape or casual shooting the D700 is wonderful, but for anything action critical (basically shooting anything that moves) - the D3s is the way to go.
    The D3s allows me to capture images that the D700 would fail to do. I always felt like the D700 was underperforming and wondered if upgrading would be an improvement, and without a doubt it is/was.
    I have the grip for my D700 and the D3s are actually quite comparable in weight and size, at least to me it is. In fact, the D3s is actually a bit smaller than the D700 w/ grip.
    Wish I would have upgraded a long time ago. Now - bring on that D4!
     

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