Time to do some Thom whacking? :)

Discussion in 'Nikon' started by arthuryeo, Nov 23, 2009.

  1. REF: http://www.bythom.com/2010predictions.htm
    Enjoy .... and don't whack too hard. :)
  2. What do you want to see in the D4 in terms of critical technologies? Let me start ...
    1. If any of you have seen the sample images of the D3S, the noiselessness is amazing but something is missing --- brilliant colors with high clarity. I see dull images with low clarity, color delineation is some what muddy.
    2. Reduce the noise of the shutter release cycle further
    3. The dam!@$ GPS really cannot be included inside the camera? Really, really?
    4. Improve the D-lighting further in NX2 so that it can match or dethrone Photomatix
    5. Provide a new feature in NX2 to include major features from Helicon Focus techniques
  3. ShunCheung

    ShunCheung Administrator

    While Thom Hogan is a well known Nikon expert and highly knowledgable, he is in the business of selling his Nikon eBooks and to that degree, he needs to stay visible to drum up his business. My experience with Hogan's product predictions is that he is no better than any other member here who is somewhat familiar with Nikon DSLRs. A lot of Nikon DSLRs are in 1.5 to 2-year product cycles. Therefore, anybody can figure out that whatever was introduced in 2008 (and perhaps early 2009 also) is due for an upgrade some time in 2010.
    As usual, you are better off taking all predictions with a grain of salt.
  4. It's all made up of hot air, you know, just to drum up discussion and to make the impression of an "expert". I can't believe I actually went to the page.
  5. I enjoy Thom's site and his predictions.
  6. I don't care about predictions. The way I look at it, it takes so long for Nikon to get enough of a new product to keep it in stock anyway, that when they formally announce something it's almost like a prediction for the future.
    Kent in SD
  7. Hm, Nikkor 100-500? I'd like that. I've been agonizing about the Sigma 50-500 for years, but Sigma HSM non-VR always seemed like trouble.
    Anyway, I think Hogan's comments is on spot about the companies and their motivations. Not so much about the cameras. For example, he wants Fuji EXR with more MPs. Okay, but I don't. Not everyone is shooting on the lowest ISO and with a $2000 tripod to get ultra-high-res prints. Anyone remember the Fuji F30/31? I didn't have the extra cash to spare when it was in the stores, but I want something like that - like now. With 6 MP.
    I'm also curious about the predicted D4/D400. Seriously, what is left to get better? 100-point autofocus? ISO 500k? Or 24 MP APS-C? I'm very afraid that DSLR market will become very like the P&S market - unusable non-photographer centric cameras with craploads of selling bullet-points (like the ISO 102400 now).
    What i mostly want is better accessories - I want to buy a box of focusing screens, viewfinders, grips and other stuff for my DSLR. The image quality is very OK as it is and handling is getting only worse.
    And I want CCD back.
  8. No whacking - I'd rather whack a mole!
    After a while most Nikon predictions become a matter of common sense. D80 upgrades to D90. D300 upgrades to D300s. A compact D3 (D700) follows about a year after the D3. A D3x materializes with Sony's 24-MP sensor.
    That said, sometimes there are surprises. Who could have predicted the D3 and the high-ISO sea change that it ushered into the industry?
    Back in September, Thom claimed that the smaller high-res camera would be available in November 2009. Now he's pushed that off to March 2010. Of course, it won't ship right away. Then it will be in extremely short supply unless you want to pay a scalper. By the time **I** get one it will be next Christmas. So, how useful are these "predictions" in reality? It's just entertainment at this point.
  9. I personally prefer my Magic Eightball (link ).
    I asked it if there would be a "full-frame" Nikon for under $1000 and it said "Absolutely"
    but like so many oracles, much depends on how the question is asked. Of course, there already are such gadgets, but they use film .
  10. I personally prefer my Magic Eightball (link ).
    I asked it if there would be a "full-frame" Nikon for under $1000 and it said "Absolutely"​
    I had to give it a try, and asked whether Digital SLR will be replaced by Film camera's. Guess what? DEFINATELY!!!!
    It even told me that I would win the lottery!!
    Well Tom, I guess you've got some homework to do.....
  11. @alex: I have the Sigma 50-500 and use it fairly often. When I was using my D200 I found it kind of soft, so it got put away. When I got a FF camera I tried it again and it dit fairly well. The autofocus is a bit slower than my AF-S lenses. It does have some creep since it's hanging downward most of the time.
    Haven't tried the Sigma 150-500 yet, but I hear it does fairly well.
  12. I too enjoy Thom's site. I also found the Economist article which he referenced insightful and supporting the rational behind his observations and predictions for 2010. No worries though, I'll take it all with the recommended grain of salt. And speaking personally, his eBooks have been worth the money I spent to get better as a photographer and understand/ use my Nikons more effectively. While one's actual mileage (or opinion) may vary, I'm more inclined to give Thom his props versus whacks. Just my .02 as a satisfied customer.
  13. Needless to say that I value Tom's insights very high.
  14. I wonder what KR has to say about this....
  15. I also enjoy Thom's site and predictions. But I think it is a waste of time speculating about what Nikon or Canon or any other company will do next. It's weird that technology is advancing so quickly that every other year there is a new camera that is released that simply makes the now two year old cameras nearly obsolete. I used to be satisfied with my Nikon D70s. But now my current D300 just trounces it in every catagory except for weight (the D70s was lighter). Whereas I was satisfied with my FE2 for thirteen years, as all the newer cameras just had fancier focus or faster built in motor drives, yet the same image quality for my style of photography. Back then it was buy the new Kodak or Fuji slide film to get better image quality. I wish they'd build a digital body with an upgradeable sensor unit. I don't imagine I'll reach 150k exposures on my D300 before I'll want to upgrade again, though I've decided that the D300 is more than enough camera for my needs at the moment. An upgrade would have to be to at least double the resolution, which I believe would amount to 48 megapixels.
  16. There will be a full frame Nikon for under $1000, but it will be a 2nd hand D700 in 16 months time or so!
    I like to read Thom and Ken Rockwell, if only as a lesson in marketing: find your client and give them what they want! But they do both have some very useful things to say, after some filtering. I have even once purchased a lens on Ken's reccomendation (!!) and found it to be a suprising treat (!!!).

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