Don't Buy a D800 till Dec.15!

Discussion in 'Nikon' started by c_watson|1, Nov 28, 2012.

  1. If you don't trust me, try Thom Hogan's 11/27 tip:
    http://www.bythom.com/
    Expect a price break--of sorts...
     
  2. According to some rumors the price drop should be equal to the current rebate. So probably not worth waiting. This has still to be considered a rumor though. The D800 will eventually drop one day as any other product.
     
  3. What rebate?
     
  4. Sorry wrote too quick. Current rebate is when purchased with a lens so the rebate is actually on the lens.
    So, yes, if the rumor is true it's probably wise to wait a couple of weeks.
     
  5. ShunCheung

    ShunCheung Administrator

    I am afraid that in these days Hogan is generating hype to draw web traffic to his web site, similar to what a number of other well known (and some notorious) bloggers are doing. This is what he writes on November 27 about buying a D800 in the US:
    in the United States wait until December 15th if you're going to buy one. You'll thank me for that (and no, asking what this is about won't generate any additional information, so don't send emails asking what's going to happen on that date).​
    If he has insider information that there will be some sort of price drop or rebate for the D800 on December 15, I wish he would just say so. As the way it is, he seems to be leaking proprietary information about some future price drop anyway. However, he is asking people to delay their purchase without telling them why they should do so; that is very confusing. To me, Hogan is trying to get attention.
    Once again, it shows why Nikon dislikes Hogan. Once I told a Nikon USA PR guy that I had proof-read a number of Hogan's eBooks for him, I got some reaction like "Oh no, not that Hogan rumor guy." This kind of "tips" is affecting Nikon sales and profit.
    Of course, I can tell you right now that if you can delay your D800 purchase to December 15, 2015, you will certainly save a lot of money on the purchase price. :)
     
  6. Thank God he's not referring to 21 dec...:) (you know... the end of the World rebates)
     
  7. Shun, I think maybe you should have made the year in BOLD.....:)
    I wonder what the Nikon DSLR offerings will be 'that' far in the future??
     
  8. I'd hesitate to lump Hogan in with the rumor mongers. He's far from sketchy. I suspect the chance of a D800 discount might be connected to current 200 buck discount on the Canon 5D MkIII. We'll see.
     
  9. ShunCheung

    ShunCheung Administrator

    As I said, I have learned a lot of Thom Hogan, as I proof-read several of his Nikon camera eBooks as a volunteer (i.e. without pay other then getting a free copy of the eBook) back in 2008 or so. I used to have a lot of respect for him and to some degree still do. However, in the last year or two, I am getting very tired of his constant criticism of Nikon on things large and small. Nikon is certainly not a perfect company and, like everybody else, deserves some criticism. However, Hogan is way over-doing it to a point that he is now extremely annoying. For example, his declaring the D800 as "not recommended" was over the top: http://www.photo.net/nikon-camera-forum/00ae4R
    Personally, I bought a D800E in mid June without hesitation while all those "left AF point issue" discussion was swirling like crazy on all sorts of web forums. As a result, I don't read Hogan's blog much any more.
    Occasionally, I also sign NDAs (non-disclosure agreements) with Nikon, and I simply won't say/post any proprietary information. In this case, Thom Hogan is like "saying it withoug saying it." It is generating some totally unnecessary rumors, speculations, and confusion as well as attention to him.
    We'll find out what happens (or not happens) on December 15, 2012; that is merely 16 days away.
    P.S. I know that Thom Hogan reads photo.net occasionally, and perhaps someone may bring my posts to his attention. The fact that I am posting this to a public forum indicates that I have no problem letting him know about my opinion.
     
  10. I very much doubt Hogan's breaking an NDA or any imaginable sort of confidentiality arrangement over what will likely be a $200 discount. Big deal.
    Hogan deserves some credit for debunking the tiresome, recurrent rumors about defects like those with the D7000 or about Nikon's indifference or denial. Curious how that could be construed as damaging since he's not obviously on the outs with Nikon.
    Just don't have any personal axes to grind about Hogan or his opinions which, as always, can simply be ignored.
     
  11. ShunCheung

    ShunCheung Administrator

    I very much doubt Hogan's breaking an NDA or any imaginable sort of confidentiality arrangement over what will likely be a $200 discount. Big deal.​
    Any up-coming price drop or rebate that has not been publically announced is certainly proprietry business information, as it will definitely affect sales (C Watson, see the thread subject you used). Nikon is extremely serious about NDA on such matter; I know that because I have dealt with them quite a bit on NDA. Most likely they wouldn't give such pricing information to Thom Hogan or someone like me; there is no reason we need to know in advance.
    The more likely scenario is that someone with the need to know in advance (e.g. some camera store that needs to get their computer system ready as soon as some discount becomes effective) broke the NDA and passed such info to Thom Hogan. While technically he is not under any NDA himself, turning around and posting such info to the public on his blog is, IMO, unethical. In particular, as I quoted him above, the language he uses is cryptic. He is telling people not to buy the D800 before December 15 but does not explain the reason, and he is kind of keeping it as a mystery by telling people not to ask.
    That is why I think he is generating attention to himself.
     
  12. Shun, I went to a Nikon School function at the LA Convention Center last year and accidentally mentioned Hogan's name to a couple of Nikon reps and all they could do is laugh and say how often Thom is wrong. I didn't point out that even Ferrari, Porsche, and Mercedes (among others), intentionally and strategically leak information to the public about their future plans to generate and maintain interest in their brand. For the camera makers, the Rumor Sites actually fulfill this need for them, for free.
     
  13. "Any up-coming price drop or rebate that has not been publically announced is certainly proprietry business information, as it will definitely affect sales (C Watson, see the thread subject you used). Nikon is extremely serious about NDA on such matter; I know that because I have dealt with them quite a bit on NDA. Most likely they wouldn't give such pricing information to Thom Hogan or someone like me; there is no reason we need to know in advance."


    Nikon couldn't conceivably be harmed by this sort of leak which, if anything, would help sales by ultimately steering $ away from competitors and creating buzz. NDAs typically don't concern matters as trivial as a short-term 200 buck "instant savings" offer. News of this sort of thing(e.g., product roll-out dates) isn't usually subject to lock-up as technical matters are and tend to go viral once out within 24 hrs--again, all to the benefit of Nikon and its dealers. If anything, Hogan is a de facto cog in Nikon's marketing operation--whatever you think of his "ethics" in reporting something as inconsequential as a <10% rebate on a pricey item.
     
  14. ShunCheung

    ShunCheung Administrator

    C Watson, Thom Hogan never said there would be a price drop. All this $200 stuff is only your speculation.


    It should be clear to you that based on Michael's converstaion with Nikon reps and my conversation with Nikon PR people that they dislike Thom Hogan.
     
  15. Between now and Dec. 15 there's about two weeks of time, with a quite reasonable 100 frames per day that's doable even for someone having a day job, one can easily get to about 1500 frames before the date comes. What if several of those 1500 are memorable? And if they're not but one put in the effort? All I'm saying is that one needs to think about the utility value too.
     
  16. I think Mr Hogan has a valuable place in the industry, and those like him too. It keeps the manufacturers honest and rightly takes them to task when they either take the market for granted or let Q & A slip a bit.
    Even KR has moved from being a Nikon advocate to now favoring Canon. But he still gets bagged unfairly in my opinion. I had a friend go one one of Bill Wyman's Seirra trips and Ken tagged along. I'm told that he never lectured or pretended to be better than everyone. He gave a week of his time and who can criticize that?
    In Singapore the price of a D800 has eased by about $500 and that tallies with these current experiences. The pricing on the D600 is still firm. Of course Nikon has made a task for itself with the D300/7000 replacement. There is not a lot of headroom with the D600 selling for $2k.
     
  17. The price will drop sooner or later. In the meantime, I am out shooting mine. Go soak your head, Thom.
    --Lannie
     
  18. ShunCheung

    ShunCheung Administrator

    Concerning price drops, the D700 was introduced on 1st July, 2008 at $3000: http://www.dpreview.com/news/2008/7/1/nikond700previewed.
    I bought mine two months later in September with a $200 discount. Little did I know that another month later, Nikon USA would give a $300 rebate plus discounts from stores for a final price around $2450: http://www.photo.net/nikon-camera-forum/00RGPY
    In other words, after merely 3, 4 months since its introduction, you could get a D700 at almost a 20% discount. That was why when there was a lot of D800 shortage at the beginning of this year, I openly said that those people who pre-ordered it guaranteed that they would pay the highest price.
    Today, after merely two months since its introduction, in the US, Nikon USA is giving the D600 a modest $100 rebate. The D800 has been out for 8+ months, and discounts are overdue.
     
  19. " they dislike Thom Hogan" This may be true but someone there ultimately likes him if they gave him 'insider' information. Or perhaps he just read the rumor site which reports the same info. (Or maybe the rumor site read his site since his announcement appeared 1 day before their did.)
    We will find out in two weeks!
     
  20. ShunCheung

    ShunCheung Administrator

    On December 1, Thom Hogan posts on this blog:
    What I'm predicting is that Nikon will figure out that by making only a D800E, and making it US$3000, they will be able to prolong the price point. This looks like a US$300 drop in price in the E model, but it's effectively a US$200 price increase on the D800 from where it will be in a couple of weeks. Everyone wins ;~).​
    Now he is saying that the D800 will be $2800 in a couple of weeks from December 1, namely December 15. He is providing the additional information that he said he wouldn't do a few days earlier. IMO, he should have made it clear from the beginning; at least he corrects it after a few days.
     
  21. He must have called Ken Rockwell!!!
     
  22. Price breaks on the D800 and D600 kit reportedly start tomorrow.
     
  23. ShunCheung

    ShunCheung Administrator

    Price breaks on the D800 and D600 kit reportedly start tomorrow.​
    C Watson, exactly who reported those price breaks?
    Could you provide some references from reliable sources such as official Nikon web sites or other respected retailers such as Adorama, Amazon, B&H, etc.? A URL link to those web site would be very helpful.
    Exactly what are the terms? E.g. is that a rebate for buying those cameras by themselves or it is some rebate in conjunction of other purchases such as lenses. How much is the discount? Is it a permanent discount or it is a short-term rebate within a certain period, and if it is only for a certain period, when does that begin and when does that end?
    For example, B&H is giving away some free stuffs such as a camera bag, memory card, etc. if you buy a D800. There is also a $300 rebate if you also buy an Epson R2880 printer: http://www.bhphotovideo.com/c/product/842926-REG/Nikon_D800_D_800_SLR_Digital_Camera.html
    Everything is clearly spelled out.
     
  24. Well, if you check the major sellers, there are now huge price breaks on certain kits. D600 + 24-85 VR under $2000 and sometimes you get a free memory card and maybe a bag or battery. Base price of D800 is reduced but not as dramatically. Don't know how long the sale prices are good for.
     
  25. ShunCheung

    ShunCheung Administrator

    Well, if you check the major sellers, there are now huge price breaks on certain kits. D600 + 24-85 VR under $2000 and sometimes you get a free memory card and maybe a bag or battery. Base price of D800 is reduced but not as dramatically. Don't know how long the sale prices are good for.​
    Yeah, it is December 14 now and Nikon has announced some deals. However, I was wondering what C Watson had in mind on December 13.
    Additionally, I also wonder why Thom Hogan asked people not to get the D800 until December 15, while actually the rebate starts on December 14. That one day can make a big difference if a lot of people get the deal on the 14th and the D800 becomes hard to find by the 15th, which is a Saturday and you cannot order from B&H, Adorama, etc. until the evening in NYC time.
     
  26. So the rumor was right 200 bucks of D800/E. Started Dec 15th and at first reported to be for 2 days, but now is extended till Dec 28th
    A question to people who might have had longer experience with nikon pricing models: can we expect similar end of Jan discounts on the D800/E models ? Historically has Nikon waited for a year with their pro SLR line -- before dropping prices a little.
     

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