Does Anybody Have a Z9?

Discussion in 'Nikon' started by ShunCheung, Dec 29, 2021.

  1. Not sure that's the case.

    Waiting lists are very common for high end cars and no-one seems to mind that much.

    Yes, if it's too long a wait for the non-NPS buyers, it will be annoying, but survivable!

    I think the timing of the 100-400mm and the 800mm PF is a well thought out plan. Sure, not many will pre-order the 800mm, but they can aspire to, AKA dream about it as the ultimate wildlife combo with the Z9! Morton Hilmer was using the Z9+800mm 5.6 E in Svalbard, I'm sure he would have liked carrying around a few less kilos!
     
  2. headline and article are clickbait, plain and simple.
    Agree. Wouldn't be the first time Nikon underestimated demand? D800E? D850?
    I already made my case above that I think the Z9 is a different beast than the D4, D5, and D6; I wouldn't be surprised if it outsells those three models by a wide margin. It's also not the first time Nikon put themselves into a bad financial position by making poor decisions. It's a bit of a D3-like moment with the Z9. Would be great if Nikon could follow it wit a D300/D700-moment soon.
    +1
    Not so sure about that; about the entire lens rollout schedule and priorities in fact. Certainly not what I wanted to see (but I am used to being in the fraction of Nikon buyers that feels neglected). I have a Nikon DSLR system that I am quite happy with and I don't need Nikon mirrorless right now (at all). In fact, the only item in Nikon's Z mirrorless setup that interests me is the Z9. Luckily, the initial impressions of it are just the opposite of my initial impression of the Z7.
     
  3. High end car is worth a lot for a long time. After a few years high end digital cameras aren't worth much any more. Besides you are going to wait for any high end car you don't have to wait for the A1 or R3.
     
  4. But why the rush? Why in such a hurry?
     
    ilkka_nissila likes this.
  5. That's not correct, some sites report a six month lead time for the Canon R3. This is not a Nikon problem it is affecting many industries across the board. Canon issued a statement "About supply: It will be shipped in sequence, but it may take more than half a year to deliver when you place a new order:

    Canon EOS R3
    Canon RF 14-35mm F4 L IS USM Lens"

    Anyway neither R3 nor Z9 is likely to show up in the most significant digits of either company's bottom line, more likely the impact of these products is of the order of 1%. The significance of the Z9 is mainly in improving the brand reputation of Nikon. Where the new technology starts to affect Nikon's financial results is when the Z6, Z7 families get some of the new technology (Expeed 7 in particular) as there are probably dozens of times more people who can afford to and will buy those, along with a bunch of new lenses.
     
    Last edited: Dec 30, 2021
  6. But that's how you sell stuff. Remember when Apple sold their IPhone for high price at introduction and made great money. Later on they drop the price and the people who bought them at introduction started to complain. It's not Apple fault as they just know when they can sell them and for how much but they did give these people $100 back.
     
  7. Apple has a relatively small number of products that sell in very large numbers (and for large profits at least for the iPhone family) which allows them to optimize the manufacture for day 1 availability. I don't think that would be possible for complex optical and mechanical systems such as cameras and lenses which sell in small volumes (and . I mean they could of course just manufacture the Z9 for three years in silence and then release all the units at once but what would that help? They would have a dated product and large warehouse costs in the meanwhile. It's better to ship it for some people and the rest can wait for delivery for a few months. Many of us probably have to save for some time to be able to buy these things anyway. If Nikon only made one camera and one lens and had a 10000 times larger market, I am sure they could optimize manufacture differently.
     
    Last edited: Dec 30, 2021
  8. Feeding frenzy, then. Consumeristic. New. Must have. Now.
    Need or affordability doesn't count. "Does anyone have one yet! Ooo! Must have one too! Now!" Rather sleep on the street waiting for the store to open and pay through the nose than be patient, act on need instead of desire, and wait until the bugs are removed and the price has dropped. Haven't seen Apple-like scenes re the new Nikon yet, and don't expect to. But really, what's with the rush? Why so much haste? Why speculate about production rates? FOMO?

    Outdated technology...? Has served us well until someone told us it doesn't.
    The best time to buy a Z9 would be when the frenzy focusses on the new Z10. So now may be the time to upgrade to the mk II of the Z6 or Z7. Or get an extra DSLR, sold by one of the many who can't wait to get the new thingy. Even now, for the price of one Z9 you can get about three used but still very good D850s. Hmmm...
     
  9. bgelfand you mentioned Canon and Sony are delivering 1,000,000 bodies a month. I’m not a marketing person but who in creation is buying all that?

    Rick H.
     
  10. You will find a link to the article in my post #13 (above). They cite the source of their data. I believe the figure is for worldwide distribution which would include both China and India.

    I went back and reread the article. The interpretation of the figures is ambiguous. It could be that Nikon is shipping 250,000 unit per year while Canon and Sony are shipping 1,000,000 per year. That would make more sense. But the production figures for the Z9 are given as 3500 which must be per month. As I wrote, it is ambiguous.

    Please read the article and let me know what you think.
     
    Last edited: Dec 31, 2021
  11. Petapixel isn't exactly known for solidly researched and written articles.

    The total interchangeable lens camera market is about 6 million units per year. The petapixel article has a sentence comparing Sony and Canon's 1 million (no citation) with Nikon's 3500 which is just for the flagship Z9, it would suggest (if they know anything at all about reporting facts and writing journalism, which they probably do not) they are claiming those are comparable figures between Sony, Canon and Nikon products, in other words they are claiming that Sony and Canon each sell 1 million flagship cameras per month. This is completely wrong. It's likely that Canon and Sony are indeed selling more cameras than Nikon but no way are those 1 million figures monthly or for comparable cameras as the Z9. Flagship sales are only a single-digit percentage fraction of the total camera sales, and total camera sales is around 6 million when adding up all brands.

    If the 1 million figure is any data point at all, it is annual, not monthly, and includes all mirrorless ILC cameras sold by C and S in a year. But this can't be right, either; the figures should be a bit higher than 1 million each.

    I miss a time when people went to journalism school or studied a profession before starting to publish their thoughts.
     
    Last edited: Dec 31, 2021
  12. Cumulative CIPA shipping numbers for the year 2021 for mirrorless up to October (latest available) indicate about 2.6M units shipped worldwide. Hence a market share of around 40% amounts to 1M units - so the number given for Canon and Sony above are realistic (though they are for a ten-month period and not monthly).
    The DSLR (about 1.9M units shipped Jan-Oct 2021) vs mirrorless market share is roughly 42% vs 58%.
     
    bgelfand likes this.
  13. Amen
     
  14. I bet it sells well...

    After being out of the country for two months I ended up ordering a Z9 on 12/18, I get it tomorrow, my first new "pro" sized body since the D3. By the way, the new 24-120 F4 S is simply outstanding, far better than the F mount one for sure.
     
    Last edited: Jan 6, 2022
  15. ShunCheung

    ShunCheung Administrator

    Congratulations. Are you an NPS member with priority?
     
    DB_Gallery likes this.
  16. Yep, 30 years with NPS this year.
     
    ShunCheung likes this.
  17. 20 days from order to receipt seems likely to annoy non-members who ordered a considerable time before you....:eek:
     
  18. Should I have mentioned my NPS status when I ordered? :)
     
    mike_halliwell likes this.
  19. As long as it's a positive 'status' , rather than being drummed out of the school camera club for using a Canon......:D
     
  20. sssh..... that was a weak moment in 1991, we don't talk about it
     
    mike_halliwell likes this.

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