D810 replacement coming soon?

Discussion in 'Nikon' started by bebu_lamar, Jan 1, 2017.

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  1. I asked because the price of the D810 has just gone up to $2796 body only from $2496 with free battery grip. That's a significant increase. I think Nikon often did that just before they introduce the new model and then lower the price of the old model again afterward.
     
  2. Before Christmas there are often discounts/rebates/cashbacks on Nikon equipment; after the holiday season the prices usually return to normal. Another time when there are frequent discounts is before the end of the fiscal year (March 31).
     
  3. ShunCheung

    ShunCheung Administrator

    See this thread I just followed up to a few hours ago: Nikon USA, Black Friday Free Power Pack for D500 & D810 + Lens Rebates, Updated Dec 4
    All Nikon USA 2016 holiday-season discounts have expired at the end of 2016. As recently as yesterday, Nikon was selling the D500 at $200 discount with a free MB-D17 grip. It is now back to the original $2000 price tag.
    You wouldn't consider that a sign that a replacement to the D500 is coming "soon"?
    Of course, IMO an upgrade to the D810 is way overdue. I was quite sure that Nikon would introduce a replacement at PhotoKina 2016 (September), but that didn't happen.
     
  4. Nikon likes playing hard to get, sometimes even up to exasperation... expectations could give way to frustration. Right now the D810 is the best in its class.
     
  5. The D300 was introduced in 2007 and the D500 in 2016. That's a pretty long period of time to upgrade their cropped frame sports camera. With sales volumes of DSLRs going down rapidly, I suspect that the time frame between "major" model upgrades will be stretched out in the future. The last 10 years really has been the golden age of the DSLR. One caveat is that Nikon may introduce something interesting for their upcoming anniversary in 2017.
     
  6. ShunCheung

    ShunCheung Administrator

    Sorry to re-open a sore point, recall that Nikon announced three DL cameras back on February 22, 2016: http://www.photo.net/nikon-camera-forum/00dlCM
    For whatever reason, those DL cameras are still not available yet after almost a year. In other words, in some rare occasions, just because Nikon has announced something still doesn't necessarily mean it will soon be available.
    Concerning upgrades, the differences among the D5300, D5500, and D5600 (announced everywhere else except for the US) are pretty small. Once a DSLR model becomes 2, 3 years old, there are all sorts of used ones available and Nikon themselves have refurbished ones to sell. A few days ago Nikon USA was selling refurbished D810 for $1900. After a while, it is simply very difficult to sell new unit any more at (close to) full price. Eventually DSLRs will be like cars; there isn't necessarily very much difference between the 2016 and 2017 models, but car manufacturers still introduce new models every year.
    To me, the D810 is very out of date by now. If you already have one, there certainly isn't anything really wrong with it. However, after using the Multi-CAM 20000 AF module on the D5 and D500, I would expect the successor to the D810 to have that kind of AF capability, plus XQD cards .... There is no way I would purchase a new D810 at this point, even at deep discounts.
     
  7. In the last few years we have seen the "marginal incremental" updates: D800/D800E to D810 (that's February 2012 and June 2014). D600 to D610 to D750 (September 2012, October 2013, September 2014). D7100 to D7200 (February 2013, February 2015). IF (and that's a big IF) Nikon sticks to a two-year update cycle (and given how incremental the updates have been and how the market is developing, I don't think they should), then the D8x0 Series and D6/7x0 are overdue and the D7200 due in 2017. Not going to list the D3x00 and D5x00 updates.
    I would expect the successor to the D810 to have that kind of AF capability, plus XQD cards​
    My guess too, and probably a higher MP sensor too. Though there is the option to use a D500-style body with a high MP sensor (and not necessarily upgrade the AF module) and another with the D5 sensor and AF module and create a true successor to the D700. Would be nice if those two cameras and the D500 could share the same external battery grip. I would prefer to have a high-end DX and FX body that have the same control layout, something that so far has only been achieved once with the D300/D700 pair
    To me, the D750 was always more a D650, so I doubt that both the D6x0 and D7x0 will persist, but my guess is that one camera in this category is quite likely to appear in 2017. Though one series could move downward in price point (and not necessarily be updated much other than snapbridge and somesuch) and one up, receiving the sensor from the D810.
    D7200 successor? Not getting the D500 AF module but only a snapbridge update? What else?
    No matter though what Nikon will introduce in 2017, I very much doubt that it's going to anything that makes me want to upgrade from the D500 and D810.
     
  8. Only Nikon know the answer to this question but it does seem pretty likely that there will be a replacement this year, how much of an improvement the new camera will be is only guesswork at this point. But, I would have to say that for most people, unless you actually are a full time photographer or simply have a lot of money to burn, that there comes a time when enough is enough and even if the new model has better autofocus, takes XQD memory cards and has a new ultra high resolution sensor, do you really, really need it? You might want it and most of us like to have the best we can afford within reason but for the market that this camera would seek to enter, most people would tend to be using this camera on a tripod (most of the time) taking images of predominantly landscape/ cityscape scenes with maybe a bit of macro, portrait work and some wildlife photography too.
    I'm still using my fairly mint condition D800 which I bought new when this model was first announced, I know that the D810 has a fair few refinements over my camera and that the camera which replaces the D810 will have even more again. But, do I really need these improvements? I'm sure that I would like to have the new camera but with increasing prices in Europe it is likely to be launched at an eye watering price point. When I look at the images from my D800 in Lightroom and Photoshop and see what I can do with them I am often amazed at how easy it is to take a tiny crop from an image and turn that into a very good A3 sized print, what more do I really need or want at this time? That is maybe the issue that Nikon will face as most Nikon D800 series users would love to have the latest and greatest version but maybe rather fewer than Nikon would wish for will actually spend the money to obtain this new camera as they realise that they can probably obtain virtually the same image quality with any D800 series camera no matter how out of date it actually is. The only thing which could really make a big difference that way is the autofocus module, which is certainly in a different league in the D5 and D500.
    To me a slightly smaller camera even with the existing sensor in the D810 would be a more attractive proposition rather than just simply having a lot more resolution alone. Nikon faces competition from cameras like the Sony A7RII, okay it is mirrorless but it is also very lightweight compared to any D800 camera. With modern materials I would have thought that Nikon could have produced a fairly high resolution body roughly D750 size but even lighter again. That would be far more interesting to me as a replacement to my D800 and maybe at some point we will see a Nikon equivalent of the A7RII too, technology is changing all the time but for now I will keep what I have until something is launched which gives me the image quality of a D800 but in a much lighter camera. I know that I could buy an A7RII but I'd rather not have to use lens adaptors and it would be an extremely expensive option to sell all my Nikon gear and replace it with something else!
     
  9. I don't think all those model should be seen a "product lines" that are going to be updated in the future. Nikon have made a lot of models in the enthusiast segment in recent years - my guess is that they really want to do well in the enthusiast / semi-pro market and needed to find out what would sell well. It's probably best to just consider each camera as a separate model. I believe the D7x00 and D8x0 have been Nikon's most successful models in recent years, which would make them likely candidates to receive direct successors. On the other hand they are not not all that old yet, compared to e.g. D300s from 2009 to D500 of 2016 (a long wait). Perhaps D810 wasn't updated in 2016 because the resources were used to develop the D500 instead and the camera simply isn't ready yet. It's not like the D500 came out of thin air in a time when Nikon is reducing costs.
    Nikon has had some difficulties with software, in particular with their mobile device software (Snapbridge) which has not met expectations, and "serious problems" in the DL series image processor were stated to the cause of delay in the launch of the DL cameras. I think it is far more important that Nikon take their time on the D810 successor and do not rush it into the market. The D810 is just two and a half years old and arguably still has the best base ISO image quality of any 35mm full frame camera. The Multi-CAM 20k of the D5 is definitely a major advance in AF technology and is much more sensitive and picks up detail even when you didn't think there were any. For example I can focus on the plain cheek of a person using the D5 and it just does it without a hitch, whereas with the D810 and earlier cameras I would have to pinpoint the eye and often it would focus on the hair or something other than I quite asked it to do. The D5's focus points cover each a smaller area of sensitivity and just lock on more reliably. And in low light the difference is even more noticeable. This feature alone would make the D810's successor worthwhile but of course Nikon need to do much more than that, they generally revise all aspects of the camera's function when they make an upgrade. However, for me 36MP files are too slow to work with when I'm doing event photography and I'm concerned that Nikon would increase the pixel count in the update (Canon has stated in September 2015 that they are working on a 120MP DSLR, I guess that would be what Nikon will be aiming to compete with) to a point where it would not be practical for me to use the camera for most of what I typically shoot. I think the D810 is sufficient and excellent for all my landscape photography needs and what I basically would like to see is the AF system update and new radio based flash control support in its successor, while not increasing pixel count much. For me I know that I don't have any practical application for 120MP files and I need a general purpose camera that is practical to use without spending 10k€+ on a new desktop and then go back to waiting for files to open and zoom into etc. If opening a raw file and zooming in to check focus takes up significantly more than 1-2s then it is too slow for my purposes and is disruptive to my workflow. I totally understand that some photographers do want to make mural size prints and inspect them with a loupe but then perhaps a D5X (perhaps with interchangeable viewfinders) would be a more suitable model for such specialist uses.
     
  10. Happy New Year, all. I promise I'll post the feature
    surveys soon - hopefully before Nikon announces
    something!

    Do I NEED a new camera? No - I'm an amateur and
    technically don't need a camera at all. But a few things
    about the D810 frustrate me enough that I'd save up for
    an upgrade.

    I'd like a small resolution bump, enough to give 4k video
    with 2:1 downsampling and 8k time lapse. I'd certainly
    like the new AF module and automatic fine tuning
    (ideally at multiple focal lengths and zooms, like Sigma,
    but automated). I'd like slightly better high ISO
    performance (like the A7R2), but not at the cost of low
    ISO dynamic range - 95% off my shots are at ISO 64 now.
    I'd like proper pixel binning for small raw, but I'm still
    interested to see what the small raw on the D5 and D500
    actually is, because it seems more useful than the
    D810's. I'd like AF area modes in the front buttons like
    the D5, too. Maybe a touchscreen, but I've got enough
    scratches on my protector that I'm unsure. I'd certainly
    like a wireless flash transmitter, but I'm worried that
    Nikon think it's better to charge for a boondoggle than
    encourage me to buy a new flash. I'd love auto ISO to get
    fixed so you can change the minimum shutter speed
    without a menu, but (even though it's just software)
    there's no precedent that Nikon will do that, so I'm not
    hugely hopeful. I'd have mixed feelings about XQD - if I'm going to ditch my CF collection I'd like a D500-like XQD/UHS-II mix (that doesn't get overloaded like the D500's apparently does) or a user-swappable version of the D5's interchangeable card module.

    There are plenty more minor items I'd like (see the ideas
    threads), but a few of the above would sell me on an
    upgrade. I might wait until I can more nearly afford it or
    until I've seen if Nikon have another quality control issue,
    though.
     
  11. I really can't see too much future for the DSLR
    design. Before long it'll probably go the way of the
    TLR; itself a design concept that made absolutely no sense to me.

    I think the future is mirrorless, and Nikon would be best served by throwing their R&D efforts into that area.

    I can't think of anything, short of a major malfunction of my existing cameras, that Nikon could add to a D8xx body that would tempt me to replace my venerable D800. Not even RF flash control.

    The move toward E lenses is alienating me from Nikon as a company that was once committed to backward compatibility. If that's no longer part of their corporate philosophy, then they might as well drop the F mount altogether and allow their optical designers greater freedom. And if that happens then the call of Sony might be hard to ignore. Since Canon seems to be stuck in the same DSLR rut.
     
  12. 1. I really can't see too much future for the DSLR design. Before long it'll probably go the way of the TLR; itself a design concept that made absolutely no sense to me.
    2. I think the future is mirrorless, and Nikon would be best served by throwing their R&D efforts into that area.
    3. I can't think of anything, short of a major malfunction of my existing cameras, that Nikon could add to a D8xx body that would tempt me to replace my venerable D800. Not even RF flash control.​
    1. Cameras have been getting progressively smaller since about 1900. At one time most of use would have been using a large format 5x7 camera. With bellows racked out to take a 200mm lens ("normal" for 5x7,) you could probably pack about 12 Nikon D800 with 50mm lenses inside it.
    2. The mirrorless design has many advantages such as small size and you can make wide angle lenses that aren't retrofocus (i.e. smaller.) Downside is current ones chew through batteries pretty fast. I do think I'll end up with a mirrorless sooner rather than later. The DSLR form dates to the 1936 Kine Exakta.
    3. I plan on keeping my D800E and completely skipping the D810. Image quality is exactly the same and the slight D810 upgrades will do absolutely nothing for me. Remember that I need two of the same camera, not just one. I would be interested in a 50mp+ D8xx, but will wait a year or two after introduction to buy well priced used ones. As for RF triggers, I would prefer to skip. I am a heavy user of triggers (I own 14,) but prefer to use after market ones. The technology in them continues to improve and they are cheap. It is easy to upgrade them if they are plug in. I also shoot a mix of SB-900, older SB-25, and monolights and I don't think the Nikon RF can do all that.
    In short, my reaction to all the talk of a D810 at this point is generally "meh." I've figured out that a camera makes the least difference in photography.
    Kent in SD
     
  13. I can't think of anything, short of a major malfunction of my existing cameras, that Nikon could add to a D8xx body that would tempt me to replace my venerable D800. Not even RF flash control.​
    For me it would be a higher framerate to make the camera as versatile as the D700 with grip, and a new AF module with a wider spread of focus points - after using cameras with a better spread (even the X100T) the D800's arrangement feels pretty constricted. Lighter would be better (it's nearly a kg), but not a D750-style body with 'scene' on the mode dial and no separate AF-ON, etc.
     
  14. I will probably never buy a camera with EVF. Looking through an EVF I cannot see or predict subject behaviour since the
    details are missing, feature boundaries are riddled with jaggies and other artifacts which distract me from seeing the
    subject clearly and prevent my focus on the emotions of human subjects. Furthermore if I turn the camera to follow a moving subject while viewing through an EVF, I start
    feeling sick in a short time. High resolution, high contrast, faster refresh EVFs are reported to consume a lot of electrical
    power, which could be problematic in winter when battery performance declines in cold temperatures (I make many of my
    landscape and detail shots <-20C). If I buy a mirrorless camera it will either have an OVF or no viewfinder at all.

    From what I've read, PDAF implemented on the main imaging sensor can not see large phase differences which prevent the practical use of the technology for fast long lenses. This is probably why Sony has not made any fast long teles for the E mount, instead they made the A99 II for their old DSLR mount to satisfy those who need to use telephotos for action.

    E lenses do not give me any problems, they work with all Nikon FX cameras as far as I know, and certainly with all the
    cameras that I use. I think Nikon should have skipped G alltogether and gone straight to E.
     
  15. Kent, SLRs predate the Kine Exacta by several decades. I have a quarter-plate Thornton-Pickard "Junior Special" from around 1920.
    Although similar designs were made from 1884 onwards and were in fairly widespread use from the turn of the C20th.

    The Kine Exacta may have been the first SLR to use flexible rollfilm, but was certainly not the first camera to use a raisable mirror, focal-plane shutter and horizontal GG focusing screen arrangement.

    Ilkka, never say never. All ground-breaking designs are a bit clunky and have teething troubles to start with. Mirrorless cameras are still not a mature technology, agreed, but I think it's a bit short-sighted to dismiss them out of hand. Plus it would be an easy step to design a Leica-like digital rangefinder - one that didn't command Leica prices and concommitant snobbery!

    I now see so-called "virtual reality" goggles for smartphones cheaply available. It's only a short step to attach one to the rear LCD LiveView screen of a digital camera. Wouldn't that satisfy the want for a high resolution viewing screen? In fact wireless connectivity would enable a viewing screen to be completely separated from the camera body. As for battery life: Many people think nothing of doubling the weight and bulk of their DSLR by attaching a battery grip.... just sayin'.
     
  16. Personally I'm not-so-patiently waiting for a A7RII competitor from Nikon - doesn't even need to be that small of a body - just give me a mirrorless D810 - I'd even take a new mount that was fully compatible with current AI, AF-D, AF-S, E lenses via adapters. I've been sitting on the Nikon sidelines with my well-worn D800, selling my AF Nikkors, and spending my $$ on Sony A7RII and micro four-thirds gear.
    Nikon really needs to get into the FX mirrorless game - they have the technology, but I fear the conservative leadership is paralyzed into incremental improvements of their DX/FX DSLR offerings. Don't drop their DSLR offerings, just offer something like the Sony A7 series line that allows the use of current Nikon lenses, but also allows for use of adapted non-Nikon glass (that would be a bitter pill for Nikon to swallow, but I think it's key to their success).
     
  17. How about a view camera? Sinar is making view camera but Linhof isn't so much. I am thinking of a small format view camera. Not the kind that take a DSLR body.
     
  18. For ease of handling I would prefer a slimmed down lightweight DSLR body with pro controls but wouldn't be against a Nikon A7RII clone if it can work perfectly with my current Nikon lenses but of course if they ever introduce such a camera it would probably have to have a new lens mount to make the most of the new design without putting too many compromises into it, which takes you back to using adaptors of some description to work with existing Nikon lenses. That might not be a bad thing if it is purpose designed by Nikon rather than a third party maker.
     
  19. "TLR; itself a design concept that made absolutely no sense to me". Get yourself a nice Rolleiflex and use it for a while. It will make sense.
     
  20. Cellular phone cameras have already killed most of the P&S camera market. They are way more naive than compacts but also way more convenient... In the same way I think Nikon is doing it wrong not making a F mount, FX format (or even DX!) smaller camera. Maybe a mirrorless version, even with a EVF will be a good option to keep all the loyal Nikon users that want to stay with their Nikon stuff but doesn`t have another choice that to jump into the Sony and Fuji market for a more convenient product.
    Mirrorless cameras are not perfect as some of you say, but makes sense these days (way more than a DSLR) when the focus speed, frame rate, optical finders are not a must. Sensor quality is a must. I bet many Nikon users are willing to sacrifice some features in favor of a lighter weight, more compact option. As Allan suggest, just put a couple features to satisfy Nikon users and very likely they will buy Nikon instead of Fuji X or Sony A7. Simply because I think many people is not buying DSLR anymore.
     
  21. Kent, I agree, for my photography, the camera makes the least difference in my photography. But they'll have to pry my lights and reflectors from my cold dead hands. And that 135 dc.
     
  22. I'm happy to say that I am pretty sure that my D750 and D810 are the end of the Nikon digital line for me for quite awhile if not for good. They are really solid performers and I know I can use them or low shutter count replacements for a number of years yet and satisfy my needs and client needs. The main reason is I am using Adobe CS6, specific computer hardware and don't really want to change any of it and would have to if I got new digital bodies due to both Adobe and Apple OS making things not compatible, so I am passing on what ever is announced as a replacement for sure.
    For other digital cameras I have my Hasselblad CFV50c back for my V system and my Leica M240 for that system, all really solid performers too, just need to maintain them is all so man...I am really set and can keep investing where the real money is in my future and that is film and darkroom work.

    It's a nice feeling, no more chasing gear, just building a spectacular darkroom and finishing my career and life as a photographer that way. Digital tools have been great but I always knew they were just temporary.
     
    tom_bowling likes this.
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