But Film Now - Stock Up - Won't be around Long!

I recently sat in a professional seminar recently with a representative from big Yellow. He told us that within 5 years Kodak will be selling large format printers, inks, papers, and everything else digital that is complementary to the "new" business plan.

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He went on to say that film will remain available for another 5 years plus or minus and after that no guarantees.

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Better stock up and buy a freezer, I fear film is destined to become as rare as glas plates and only be available in a very few emulsions. Isn't life grand.

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Bill

NYC

Bill,

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He forgot to tell you that his statement ("5 years plus or minus, and

after that no guarantees.") was realy a reference to how long Kodak

will be in business. That is if their marketing department doesn't

kill them sooner.

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Film will be around for quite a while, as the vast majority of the

world is not digital ready.

There will probably always be a couple of film manufacturers

producing a couple varieties of color and B&W emulsions. 35mm mdium

format and 4x5 and maybe 8x10. But exotic sizes may become a victim

as cost cutting continues. The other factor will be as demand

decreases, what will be the effect on the cost of film. Eventually

the cost will force most hobbyists and amateurs over to digital.

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Availability of chemistry will also slowly decline. Luckily for

serious shooters we can mix almost everything we need. For others it

will spell the end of the wet darkroom.

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For me, as long as I can get a 100 and 400 asa color or B&W film and

one or two varieties of paper for 4x5 and 8x10 I will continue with

the traditional processes. Who knows, less time worring about what

paper, film and chemistry to use may make me a much more productive

and creative photographer.

Thanks Bill, until I saw your message I didn't know film was in any

danger of going away but now that you've told me it will be gone in

five years I'm stopping in at my bank on Monday, taking out a second

mortgage on my house, buying the biggest freezer I can find, and

loading it up with all the film I can lay my hands on. Thanks for

letting me know that digital is going to replace film in the next

five years, I had never heard that before.

The only constancy about predictions of consequences of changing

technology is that they are rarely anything but wrong. We film users

should all be heartened by "big Yellow's" prediction, as they have,

in recent decades, achieved a much higher than average record of

wrongly anticipating changing business conditions. I would bet,

better than even, that Kodak has a much greater chance of failing in

the digital arena than it would if it stayed in film despite

shrinking market share. The track record of large corporations'

ability to shift from one technological base to another is famously

poor. I don't think it is much of a stretch to say that film users

will see some notable changes and shifts in the film and film-based

photographic marketplace. However, it is unwise to assume that we

will have to put up with inferior products or poor availabity. Given

the historical pattern, flexible and fast moving small or medium

sized firms will likely take on the production of traditional

photographic goods and services.

Let me make sure I've got this straight. I either eBay my

instamatic cameras and flash cubes so I can make room for storing

lots and lots of boxes of tri-x and ektapan, not to mention

verichrome pan and what the heck, I might as well hoard some AZO just

in case, along with a couple of 55 gallon drums of HC-110, OR I pop

in an 8 track and start shooting Ilford, and Bergger! No need to

find a new enlarging paper since Old Yeller quite making graded FB

many moons ago(I would miss AZO, though) Really, sorry to hear that

Kodak holds my patronage in such low regard(hey, I'm taking this

personally!) But I really don't think the color of the box my film

comes in is going to determin how creative my photographs turn out,

and while I'll miss the yellow stuff, there are plenty of other

suppliers whose products I've never gotten around to trying because

I've always been satisfied with Kodak. Maybe this will get me

experimenting more. Probably not a bad thing. Maybe a good thing!

Film may be gone, but Azo will be around. We are committed to buying

enough each year to keep it in production. But if you want to stock up

on it, do get it from us, John. Thanks.

Actually, Jonathan is correct in his assessment of Big Yellow. I have

assisted Kodak manage a portion of their controllable costs in a

consulting role for a number of years now and have had a peek at

their internal workings and it is not a pretty picture. From a long

period of inept decision making at the highest level, they are being

forced to either sink of swim like many household names in corporate

America. Just take a look at their stock price. The real funny thing

is that what is going to allow Kodak to survive is drastically

reducing their workforce and getting back to basics (sound

familiar?). From a marketing perspective, both conventional and

digital photography are somewhere between nominal and negative

growth. It is a dog eat dog world out there and Fuji is their worst

nightmare. For each to survive in this environment means finding the

correct combination of products, services and costs that allow you to

live for another day.

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Yes, the marketing folks have heard the music but are dreaming to say

that they are privy to any practical implementing timelines.

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I know one thing for sure. Kodak has not been very successful in

digital to the degree that they predicted a number of years ago.

Could be that they are product typecast whereas Fuji has been able to

shift gears and not be affected as seriously.

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Despite its managerial shortcomings, Kodak still has a good asset

base and has developed a much better product service department that

will allow it to keep on plugging for many years. Talking to the

Senior financial folks you get an appreciation for the internal tug

of war between the old school (base in conventional photography and

find a niche in digital) and the new school (digital is the future

and conventional is dead and waiting for the funeral).

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It is always a good idea to get a freezer and stockpile film, but

don't get carried away. I will bet that we will see the same posts

here five years from now.

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I commend Kodak for expanding their offerings in the 5x7 film format

when many here heard that 5x7 would soon be doing the dirt dance. The

best thing we can do is do what we do best - consume film and film

products. Purchase what you feel works best for you and we will all

do just fine.

There are more quality new parts available for Model A Fords now than

there were in 1949. Bergger, Forte and Ilford are probably enjoying

this discussion and wishing it was true.

If this statement truly reflects Kodak's position with traditional

film, I suppose I will learn and/or continue to work with products

from Ilford or other film makers that will stay committed to

the 'other' form of photography....

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Thanks for the warning.....

I knew there was another reason I loved Bergger 8x10 film so

much beside the fact that the results kick ass.... Not really

worried about pyro going away, and if by some brutal act of God

Azo ever disappears, I'll print Pd.

Look at the bright side> Fill your freezer with film and paper

shoot, print and sell your work at prizes like you never have

before. The silver print will acquire a total new value we will be

the ones to transform such a negative thing to our advantage,

Traditional photography will be a rare and sought after art.

What the Kodak rep was saying was that in his "shortsighted opinion"

Digital ia a mature technology, which the brighter minds even at Kodak

are clearly aware, it is not. That rep will be gone and everything he

is selling you today will obsolite well before there is really any

threat of the FUD (Fear Uncertainty and Doubt) he is spreading

becoming true. To stock up now would only dislocate the market. If you

had been in the meetings I had in the early 90's I was in with Kodak,

you would be rolling on the floor at the very suggestion that Kodak

even knows what time it will be at noon tomorrow.

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What they do know is that Digital in its current form will be obsolite

and most of what they are now selling along with it. This includes

even the file formats and storage systems. Those who commit now will

line up behind those who invested heavily in the Disc Camera, APS and

PhotoCD. They all got badly burned. Kodak has a long history of

betting on the wrong horse, and taking those who listened with them.

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The change began last Thursday when the FCC quietly approved something

called UltraBroadBand. UBB will transform everything in Digital

hardware and sets the market for digital services which is much bigger

and infinately more lucritive than the market for digital hardware.

Three weeks ago Kodak spun off their digital services unit into a

seperate free standing company because they knew the change resulting

from UBB will become a major one. The changeover will bolster film not

weaken it, and the current digital workforce has to be concerned about

their own long term veracity and ultimately, survivial. They are

pushing a digital equal to APS, and some even know that. In 18-24

months it may be all over for todays digital systems. What will take

their place is THAT impressive, but film will survive very well, thank

you. (But with little thanks to Kodak)

Another brilliant "Kodak moment." First kill Kodachrome 25, next

probably the rest of the Kodachromes and finally ... eliminate all film

from the marketing plan. This company desparately needs new management

- management with creativity and vision.

The Yellow Peril is short sighted and mismanaged. Xtol packaging &

screwups have all but killed a product that "should" have been a

great advance in film developing chemistry. Gold CD's were to have

been markets at $10 each but ended up at $0.94 each and that was not

a high enough profit margin so The Yellow Godfather took them off the

market & now make a product that is markedly inferior.

Laying off & dumping over 10,000 scientists in the B&W division over

the past few decades shows how these jokers work. Many of Kodak's

employees are excellent workers. Talented & dedicated people who fit

well in the mold of a giant in the industry. The leadership does not

want products that lead the market while being only steady profit

centers while not spectacular financial performers. They want high

return items only even though this type of product will have a short

lifespan which forces development costs ever higher as they

continually have to re-tool to introduce ever changing products.

D-76 still sells. Azo still sells even in the face of all the Kodak

attempts to kill it. TriX still sells. A lot of EK products still

sell and still make money for the company. The return may not be high

enough to fit the new model they would like to have but it does make

a profit, year in and year out.

Kodak is now known as a company that does not care about service or

its customers, only the bottom line. So many of us have been burned

by these jokers that we go elsewhere if some other company is even

remotely close to the quality we were used to with The Yellow

Godfather. In the past many stayed with Kodak partly because of the

excellent people they had. Customer service was just that... service.

Now it is "buy all you can & don't bother us".

The loss of many EK products will be lamented. The answer is as it

has been for a long time. Ilford makes nice products. Bergger makes

nice products. Forte makes nice products. Agfa makes nice products.

So do a number of other, smaller companies out there.

Kodak has overpaid underqualified 'leaders' for years. Pissing &

moaning about competition. Funny that so many who purchase the

products see competition as only beneficial in getting ever better

film, paper & supplies. I can easily manage my darkroom work using

only one EK product... Azo. And at that I do continually bitch at

Kodak about only having grade 2 & 3, no choices in surfaces & sizes

any more and their lack of support for a paper in which they have a

corner on the market. Make it & market it & go back & read what

George Eastman did in building the company and maybe they could make

a solid profit on products again.

Maybe The Yellow Godfather will quit the film business. When they do

many will miss them for various reasons. I sure won't miss them for

their attitude towards us, the customer.

If Kodak drops out of the film market, there will still be Fuji,

Ilford, Agfa etc. Kodak has a habit of dropping films we like, so

I'm mad at them anyway. Likewise for paper. Maybe I just have a

problem with a company thinking they can dictate what I will use/buy

based on their overblown image of themselves (ala Microsoft). No

matter how big they think they are, there is always someone else

willing to sell what I want, so I don't really need Kodak after all.

The people working for Kodak may be OK, but their top brass should be

fired or demoted for short sightedness and stupidity.

Is anyone working in the "paperless office" that we were told about

15 years ago that we would be in today, . How about the ice age that

was predicted for now about 20 years ago.

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I work with an engineer that used to load film in spy planes. He

said that they used so much film that the had to have a counter

balance leader that fed from left to right while the film fed from

right to left. Otherwise it threw the plane off balance.

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Pixels are little photo cells, they can make them smaller but as they

get smaller, the electrical output drops. Background noise is

already a serious problem,which is why some of the cutting edge backs

have internal cooling.

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I don't see anytime in the near future that our mutual unkle can fly

at several thousand feet, at several hundred miles an hour and

photograph everything that passes under the plane with digital

resolutation capiable of reading a licence plate.

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As long as Unkle Sam wants it, someone will make it.

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Neal

Kodak not making film in 5 years, so what.

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As long as Fuji's outlook is good and they're filling the market that

Kodak relinquishes, no problem.

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I haven't used Kodak film or paper in more than 10 years.

Kodak has been run by the accountants and their bottom line for many

years, and the firm goes wherever the profit is.

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I for one would not miss them or their products one bit, in fact were

the yellow devil to quit the film business it would be good for the

remaining film companies, perhaps permitting them to expand their

product lines.

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While they discontinued wonderful emulsions such as Ektar they put

R&D and massive marketing expenditures into their consumer 'Max'

films, along with digital consumer products. We should all be lucky

enough to dance on Kodaks' grave.

Good riddance, I say. The Yellow Peril could go belly-up tomorrow and I wouldn't care less. OK, I would feel bad for

the many people that lost their jobs, but the company would get what they deserve. IMO, the introduction of Acros 100

by Fuji was the last piece of the puzzle in allowing me to shed Kodak from this point forward. And there's always Ilford

too if you want an alternative for B&W.

I work for a division of Kodak that leases and services 1 hour

equipment. The word we always hear is that silver based photography

will still be around for a long time.That digital will just be part

of the mix. To be honest I have my doubts. When the technology gets

cheap enough, the quality gets good enough and when everyone owns a

PC, I wonder if there will be a market for snap shot silver based

photography. Without the snap shot market I wonder if Kodak or other

large companys will hold on to the pro formats that count for a small

percentage of their market. Kodak has been pretty good in the past

about keeping products that only fill a small nitch market. But if

the driving forse goes digital, I wonder. I always thought maybe 5-10

years till silver based is in trorble but it's just a guess no one

really knows. Look how fast CDs wiped out records. There's still

audiofiles the perfer records and you can still get records but it's

a hell of a lot harder.

I wonder if the rep meant LF film in particular or all film in

general? Just looking at local suppliers here in Vancouver Canada, I

already see much less LF film available from anyone. Has anyone

noticed this in their locale?

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Cheers,

I just came back from CompUSA-wanted to see the new iMac with LCD

screen but it wasn't in yet. Lots of teenagers were asking their moms

(didn't see dads in the mix today) to buy them CD-R burners for their

music CDs. Lots. These are the same kids who can play all the video

games that don't interest me. Their photography will be camcorders

and iMovies and digital, not a roll of Tri-X film. On the other side

of the spectrum, still art and hobbyist photography has always been

the beneficiary of advances and forces in much greater commercial

arenas-the motion picture industry and the advertising industry.

Tri-X was developed to come up with a better B&W cinema film, not so

HCB could take his Leica peek-a-boo snaps. And as far as I can tell

from posts, it's the commercial photographers and their clients who

have embraced digital-for it's many cost, time and decision-making

advantages, even before one could honestly say that digital imaging is

superior to silver halide-but we have already been through this with

cinematography versus video. So those who cherish both old and new

worlds are caught between major industries and young consumers. What

is surprising is how fast this is all happening and is likely to. I

can only add that the last several motion pictures I've

seen-presumably shot on 35mm FILM-demonstrate the extraordinary

quality of silver halide imaging. Thanks for the va