Any new digital body this year?

I was wonderin if Canon will be introducing any new DSLR this year.

 

Canon usually introduces new model in spring and autumn and was wondering if

there will be any this autumn.

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They might introduce a consumer's FF DSLR at Photokina this fall. Who knows.<P>

 

<LI><A HREF="http://www.photo.net/photodb/user?user_id=332699" TARGET="_blank"><TT>Jim Rais</TT></A></LI><P>

The odds of a ff consumer body are pretty close to 0. If I had to guess, a replacement of the Rebel XT to mirror the 30D should be there. A 1DSmIII or sub Rebel XT DSLR could appear.

Beats the hell out of me what they will do this time.

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Should be an update of the Digital Rebel XT, but they can't really give it a better/bigger sensor then the 30D or they'll shoot themselves in the foot.

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On the other hand, if they stick with 8 MP and with both Sony and Nikon introducing 10.2 MP DSLRs (the <a href="http://www.bobatkins.com/photography/digital/sony_alpha_preview.html"><u>Sony Alpha at under $900</u></a> and the Nikon probably at a similar price), Canon may have a marketing problem.

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They could drop the price on an updated XT I guess and go for the low end market, but then they may have problems in the middle ground with the 30D vs. the 10MP offerings from Sony and Nikon. The Sony even has image stabilization built into the body.

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They could mildly tweak the XT and introduce something else at around $500 to induce P&S digicam users to switch to Canon DSLRs I guess.

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Canon have sort of painted themsleves into a corner by not making the 30D 10MP. Technically, it doesn't make all that much difference, but from a marketing standpoint it probably does. It pretty much fixes everything cheaper at 8MP or less and the competition seem to be going for 10 MP. It's much too early to put a bigger sensor in the 30D or introduce a 40D. That will have to wait until at least February 2007.

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I'd say the chances of a full frame DSLR priced lower then the EOS 5D are slim to none at this point.

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They might tweak the 1Ds Mk II a bit, but that's just a guess. It really has no competition so the need for tweaking isn't urgent.

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We'll probably know for sure in less than a month. Canon traditionally have announced their new fall products towards the end of August.

I'd rather see a 8mp 30D/20D series body with 1 Series Autofocus and a 100% view finder then a 10 or 12 MP with the current focusing system.

But that's just you! Canon is (should) be looking at a wider audience. I'd say that at least 95% of 20D/30D owners are perfectly happy with the current AF (I know I am).

 

The thing most new buyers of DLSRs will be looking at is pixel count, followed by gee-whiz features (like IS in the body or built in dust removal). Niceties like slightly better/faster AF are far down on most buyers shopping list.

 

If I was buying my first DSLR and I had no lenses to influence my decision, I'd be looking long and hard at the Sony Alpha right now.

Isn't it fun guessing what Canon will do? Let's see . . . 30D-too new. There are rumors of a new 22mp foveon style camera for 2007 so I would rule out 1DsmkII. I don't think the 5D is quite ripe yet, but it is a candidate. Is there any interest left in the 1.3x? Doesn't seem like it, and a cheaper version would conk the D30 on the head. Stranger things have happened. If canon even bothers to show up, I would guess they would do for the XT what they did for the D20.

<i>Canon have sort of painted themsleves into a corner by not making the 30D 10MP. Technically, it doesn't make all that much difference, but from a marketing standpoint it probably does. It pretty much fixes everything cheaper at 8MP or less and the competition seem to be going for 10 MP. It's much too early to put a bigger sensor in the 30D or introduce a 40D. That will have to wait until at least February 2007.</i>

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I tend to agree. I suspect that the 30D will have a 12month life, then be replaced with a 10 or 12mp version. <p>BTW: I did <b>not</b> upgrade my existing dSLR specifically because of the failure to upgrade sensors. Of course. . .I am one of those geeks who values the series 1 AF system, and MP count more than having "full frame".

I hope you're right, Jim. My 30D is great, especially shooting RAW/16-bit. But, I'm getting tired of Nikon D200 guys looking at me with disdain. I make sure I tell them that I tried the D200, but the RAW conversions from CS2 were crap. That's still not enough, and I would like the same horsepower/torque/chrome. ;-)

Is it possible that the 30D was meant to have a 10+ megapixel sensor, but that development hiccups forced them to use the 8 megapixel? I don't think it would be the first time that has happened. I wonder if they'll introduce a 35D or something such with a sensor upgrade.

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I don't upgrade from 300D and 10D, either. Still hoping for the camera that is made for the Zeiss lenses I own without adapter, but maybe it's just a whishful thinking. Canon is okay and so are some of those L-lenses, but Bob's right: Sony Alpha line is interesting (just wait another year) and with the two "outdated" bodies and 17-40L + 28-135 IS USM combination I'm not that deep sunken up to the throat in Canon pool, too. So I might go any direction sometime in the future. Flexibility is all you need in these hard digital 12-18 months life cycles time, haha .. Luckily I still have some time to shoot the thing called photography.<P>

 

<LI><A HREF="http://www.photo.net/photodb/user?user_id=332699" TARGET="_blank"><TT>Jim Rais</TT></A></LI><P>

It's worth noting that the one real test of the Sony Aplha to dat suggests that it's noise performance is significantly worse than the Rebel XT (350D) at anything above ISO 400.

 

Canon have said that by going above 8MP with current sensor technology the image quality would suffer and so far they seem to be right (The D200 isn't as good at high ISO either).

 

Of course your average first time DSLR buyer is coming from a crappy, noisy, P&S digicam, so any DSLR will be better than that. In that case you may catch more buyers with a higher pixel count than a higher quality imgage at ISO settings above 400.

 

I have no doubt that Canon are right from an engineering viewpoint. Whether or not that sells cameras remains to be seen!

 

I'd assume that Canon are working on a low noise 10 MP CMOS APS-C sensor. If so they could put it in an EOS 40D next spring. I'm pretty sure they won't do it this fall.

 

I think it would still take quite a bit more than 2 extra MP to make me fork out $1000+ for an upgrade to my 20D, but Canon really can't afford to be seen to be "falling behind" in pixel count in a market segment where pixel count is a significant advertising advantage.

 

In that respect they missed the boat in February. Having an 8MP 30D makes it virtually impossible for them to bring out a 10MP Rebel without killing their 30D sales, unless the Rebel is really feature limited - and then they lose out to Nikon and Sony. It's hard to see how they can win this one. If they just bring out an XT with a larger LCD and a few software tricks (Picture Styles) nobody is going to get very excited about it.

 

I suppose they could be smarter than all of us (well, me anyway) and come out with something so unexpected that nobody else though of it. I guess we'll find out in a month or so.

"Canon traditionally have announced their new fall products towards the end of August." So ask us again in 3 weeks ;)

 

I'm hoping for a 1.3x based around the 30D & 5D - My guess is we'll see a 1Ds2 replacement and nothing else.

 

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Bob; I agree with you. I currently shoot a 10D -> and honestly I was planning to skip one generation before upgrading. I consider the 30D to be the same generation as the 20D. . .so I am waiting.

 

Honestly. . .the waiting is actually making me lose interest in upgrading. I just get better at getting the most out of what I have.

<MegaPixel greed mode on>

 

Check this out:

 

http://www.dpreview.com/news/0607/06072001nikondslrteaser.asp

 

Simply put: Considering the current Nikon line up, I think Canon may very well be considered to be behind. Unless they pull out a 10mp rabbit <shortly>.

 

</MegaPixel greed mode off>

Old news :-)

 

See http://www.bobatkins.com/photography/digital/nikon_D80.html

 

More pixels doesn't mean better. It appears the Sony Alpha, which looks great on paper, doesn't quite live up to its promise. Whether the D80 will remains to be seen. Given Nikon's history of announcing products many months before they hit the stores it may be a while...

 

As I said above (or maybe somewhere else), I'm very happy with my 20D. "Only" 8.2 MP, but they're pretty damn good ones!

Shoot me. I didn't read it here :)

(just kidding of course)

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I guess I should read dpReview more often to catch headlines. I take the point (from your article) about the possible sharing of sub-par high megapixel sensors.

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But since this is a gear head forum:

<i><red>Here's to holding out for high quality, low noise, dirt cheap high megapixel sensors!</red></i>

"Bringing out a 10 MP will kill the 30D sales." I agree with the point, but that doesn't mean they won't do it. I doubt Canon invested a lot in developing the 30D over the 20D. The collective sigh when it was released seemed to indictae that features wise it added nothing special. They could also drop the price. Canon used to be a bit cheaper with more features than Nikon. Now they are a bit more exspensive, sometimes with less features.

 

From Canon's point of view it may be better to sell a drebel, than sell nothing at all, because everyone is going for a Sony/Nikon 10 MP DSLR. And a 8 MP drebel will put them behind Sony/Nikon for a full 12-18 months.

 

Release of a 10+ MP(?) rebel will also tell the market to hold of purchasing a Sony/Nikon, because a Canon 40D with similar specs will obvioulsy be just around the corner. So Canon may be prepared to accept low 30D sales if it is made up by increased drebel and 40D sales coming a few months later.

 

The bottom line is working out what is profitable for Canon to do is more complicated than just assuming they will want to maximise 30D sales.

That's possible. Canon could cut their losses and bring in a 10MP Rebel. If I was in their marketing department I'd spin it as a higher pixel count camera, but I'd point out that the 30D has better noise performance (assuming it does) and thus yield better image quality.

 

It all depends on how much any of this has caught Canon off-guard. You can't just throw a 10MP camera togther in a couple of months in reaction to what others have done. You have to design, develop and manufacture the sensor (Canon make their own CMOS, they don't buy CCD for their DSLRs). Anything coming out now must have been in development for 12-18 months.

 

I think Canon probably have to go to 10MP for the 40D in early 2007, but I'm not at all sure what they'll come out with this fall.

 

If the price is right the Rebel XT is pretty competitive at 8MP and $700. Many (most) of lower end cameras are still 6MP

Noisy 1.6 factor 10MP would not be much at all. And even if it's 100$+/- cheaper than Nikon or Sony it would not matter at all. At that point Canon will solidly become a follower allowing Nikon and Sony to lead the way...

The only way for Canon to be the leader again is to come up with more MP and less noise all at the same time. This almost certainly means bigger sensor. A good camera with 1.3 factor and say 10MP will allow Canon to break away and be a leader again. At the same time they should allow for 5D to drop in price, effectively replacing 30D (assuming that yield on FF sensors is good enough to do this). What's the point of making your own sensors if Canon ends up playing catch-up with other companies.

 

Canon has been complacent for far too long...

 

In a mean time I am perfectly happy with my DRebbel waiting for 1.5k or less FF camera.

You are all going in the wrong direction. The new camera will as most have surmised be a Rebel replacement. But, we are talking the entry level consumer DSLR. Even though the present Rebel has great quality........the next one doesn't necessarly have to beat it. Entry level consumer means less $$$ with "decent" quality. As long as it's enough to beat the P&Ss and be cheaper than the Prosumers....but at the same time not compete with the 30D....it will work to Canon's advantage. They don't have to make money on this one.......they just have to steal sales from Nikon and Sony.

 

 

10 megapixel, NO RAW (i bet 90% of rebel users don't use it anyhow), biggest LCD screen yet, Maybe even no manual or Tv exposure.......for $499 US, and $549 with the 18-55 EF-s lens.

 

And, finally bring out some truely new FAST ultra wide angle lenses....but that has nothing to do with the Rebel.

I just purchased a 5D because i said to me that i change my digicameras where the resolution doubles (i upgraded from a 10D).

So between an 8MP and a 10MP isn`t so much of a difference - but marketing is marketing.

I think that Canon will introduce this fall a 1Dsmk3 with maybe 24MP (same density as 30D) and a new DIGIC processor to amke it 10fps, and drop the 1dmkIIN - so the 1,3x sensor could be implemented into a 30D body and placed between the 30D and 5D as a bridge from 1.6x to FF and priced accordingly. The 30D is essentially the same camera as the 20D so the price could drop as may drop the price of the rebel.

But maybe they`re cooking something else =)

"In a mean time I am perfectly happy with my DRebbel waiting for 1.5k or less FF camera."

 

I have a 20D, and I'm perfectly happy with it, while I wait for a FF body with built-in flash and 5fps burst rate.

 

And I'd rather keep my 8mp 20D than upgrade (?) to a 10mp Rebel XT replacement, because I like the body size and user interface so much better. If a 10MP 40D (or whatever they would call it) were released without high ISO noise equal to or better than the 20D/30D's, I would pass on that, as well.

 

But between my 20D and my eventual, inevitable FF body, I would be intrigued by a 1.3x 30D replacement, although Canon's PR message has been that they're going to abandon that format.

This Christmas we'll probably see low-end DSLR bodies breaking the $499 price point, plausibly from Pentax and Canon. Canon will also be replacing the RebelXT, but as Bob points out, if it's 8MP they'll have to make it cheaper than the Nikon D80 to be competitive.

 

I still think Canon missed a big opportunity by not coming out with a consumer 1.3x DSLR to keep up interest in full-frame lenses (and whet appetites for the eventual affodable ff bodies).

There wouldn't be much of a problem making an updataed 8MP rebel cheaper than the D80 and Sony Alpha. They're both $900 and the Rebel XT sells for $700. I'd imagine they could do it for a list price of $700.

 

I wouldn't be shocked to see a sub $500 "Rebel Jr" either, but I think Canon would lose some market share if all they had was a Rebel at $500 and the 30D at $1400. They have the 20D lurking around, but that would be a tough sell against the D80 and Sony Alpha, plus I assume they've ramped down production anyway and will drop it at some point.