About Thom Hogan Latest (not last) Publication

<p>I was reading Hogan's publication "The Strange September Situation" where he analyses the possible new products coming in September (http://bythom.com/).</p>

<p>While he make some thoughtful statement sometimes you find things like this one:</p>

 

<blockquote>

<p>September is now a marketing problem for Nikon because it's all about perception. The issue is that, almost no matter what Nikon does later this month, they won't have correctly managed the perceptions of enough of their current and potential customers. <strong>As it is, Nikon is making bad moves even before the announcement(s)</strong>: last night we got a Spartan two sentence statement out of Nikon apparently in response to the Nikkei Business Daily report about the mirrorless camera. That Nikon statement basically said "we haven't announced anything." Gee. We hadn't noticed, thanks for the update.</p>

</blockquote>

<p>I mean, we are taking about multinational company with decades of successful management. Do a blogger knows more about market tendencies that Nikon marketing experts? I think sometimes people takes things much too far.</p>

<p>Everyone is entitled to their own opinion, even Thom Hogan. When you read his posts, you should keep in mind who he is and who he is not, that's it.</p>

<p>What Oliver said - plus the fact that sometimes even multi billion dollar companies make false steps. </p>

<p>The example Thom gives here is a classic example of a company stating the obvious. It perhaps would have been a better PR move to actually announce something or make no comment at all. </p>

<p>Dave</p>

 

<p>I am definitely a Nikon fan and I love very much my Nikon gear. But somehow I do not like the way Nikon deals with information about their new products. I know that all is about marketing strategy... but I wonder if its the right strategy. Maybe it worked for decades but things are changing even in marketing.</p>

<p>For instance I am desperately looking for a lightweight solution for street and travel photography. Compact and bridges are not in my view... I need something with interchangeable lenses. For several years I was hoping Nikon will produce something in this area. I've got tired to wait and I am very close to sell my DX gear, keeping my FX line for serious work and to move to Sony NEX-7 for street & travel.</p>

<p>If Nikon would make public their strategy, even without to give exact launching time and without to tell exactly the secrets... they would build expectancy in their customers and people will save money for this or for that product. If I should know that Nikon has in its production strategy the plan to release within next 12 months a pro grade D5100 size of camera or smaller I would not consider to move to Sony for this personal need. But because I have absolutely no idea what Nikon is planning to produce now or ever I will probably go for Sony NEX-7 and if I start to invest in this system if later Nikon will bring something on the market will be too late.</p>

<p>For instance Ford Motor is planning a new concept B-Max that will be produced in my country. They already speak about this, sharing some info about size, price-range, target, some technical info, a possible launching time, etc... In this way they make people to wait and to save for that product.</p>

<p>At this time Nikon is playing something like a Russian Roulette with our photographic needs and I personally think that it is counter productive. We definitely need to know an approximately calendar for D4, D800, D400 and for other products Nikon may consider to bring on the market, including lenses, flashes etc. This will conduct to a win-win situation. At least this is my perspective.</p>

<p>Mahai, there are numerous options for a 'lightweight solution' than have been available for a couple of years. They just don't have the Nikon nameplate on them. And the good news is that some of them can use Nikon lenses with an adapter (Olympus micro 4/3rd for example).</p>

<p>Remember that Hogan's primary motivation is to get people to read his stuff, and to visit his web site. His most recent observations have a bit of the ol' Rockwell-ian theatricality, I think. <br /><br />It's easy to complain about how a company in Nikon's position (dealing with huge expenses and set-backs because the the earthquale/tsunami, dealing with a global recession's impact on demand for what are - of course - essentially unnecessary consumer products, dealing with currency craziness, and all the rest) handles near- and long-term product planning. Everyone needs to relax a little bit, and let them work. <br /><br />Sure, I'd like things I know they won't release soon enough, or at a price that I'd prefer. But I imagine that all of our own employers and customers wish we would or could do things that also aren't going to happen, for very real and practical reasons.<br /><br />It's tough, trying to sell high-tech gadgets under these conditions. Just ask Apple what it's like trying to unload their previous versoin iPhone in the weeks leading up to the next one coming out.</p>

<p>This is from Nikon's official web site, not Thom, not rumors.<br>

http://www.nikon.com/news/2011/0909_01.htm</p>

<blockquote>

 

<h1 >Comments on Media Reports about Nikon's imaging product</h1>

<p >September 9, 2011<br>

Nikon understands that some article appeared in the media regarding Nikon's imaging product. Please note that Nikon has made no announcement in this regards.</p>

 

</blockquote>

<p>You can find that by going to nikon.com and clicking on the "News" link at the top. This has to be one of the most poorly phrased statements I have ever seen. You don't need a degree in marketing to speak the English language.</p>

<p>What Ken Rockwell and Thom have to say obviously has a market, as does maligning it. These opinions and their counters generate traffic for all, including PN.</p>

<p>Nikon could surely use a better writer, though. That anti-announcement reads like it was authored by the guys that used to write owner's manuals decades ago.</p>

<blockquote>

<p>... sometimes even multi billion dollar companies make false steps.</p>

</blockquote>

<p>Also remember that they need to please the stockholders. Satisfying the customer is usually the best plan to achieve this goal in the long term. But in the short term, sometimes not. Example: Someone may need to show a short-term profit to save their job.</p>

<blockquote>

<p>Mahai, there are numerous options for a 'lightweight solution' than have been available for a couple of years. They just don't have the Nikon nameplate on them. And the good news is that some of them can use Nikon lenses with an adapter (Olympus micro 4/3rd for example).</p>

</blockquote>

<p>Elliot, I am aware about these available lightweight solutions but (1) they seems to be somehow a downgrade from Nikon DX and (2) for years I tried to avoid to go on two systems (i.e. Pentax K7 and DAL lenses have lot of honey for me... ) - I think it was a legitimate expectation and wish to have Nikon filling this need. I really do not understand why every pro grade body from Nikon must be large and heavy as a brick. Nikon must understand that professional does not mean only sport and wildlife where you need a large body to balance with those huge lenses...<br>

The fact is that NEX-7 does not seem to be a downgrade, the technical sheet is blowing my mind...</p>

<blockquote>

<p>His most recent observations have a bit of the ol' Rockwell-ian theatricality, I think.</p>

</blockquote>

<p>That is cruel! Thom, despite his grumpiness, is a serious guy. He tends to complain about Nikon's marketing because he depends on their products doing well, so that his motivation is basically positive. He sometimes (as he has done recently) overcooks his criticisms. But they come from a very different place from the one that KR pulls his comments from.</p>

Thom Hogan is no mere blogger. And he probably does know more about marketing than the collective Nikon

marketing organization. He has many in-depth articles critical of Nikon marketing in his archives, and they are well

worth reading.

 

He thinks that with emphasis on video and other seemingly popular features Nikon is entirely on the wrong track.

<p>Mihail, I do not understand why it has to be Nikon who manufacture such cameras. For autofocus etc. to work well, the camera and lenses have to be designed together, for each other. This means the lenses have to be designed also for contrast detect AF since there aren't going to be mirrors. See how badly Nikon LV AF works? It is terrible. Compare to Panasonic or Olympus micro four thirds AF - it is lightning fast with dedicated lenses, reportedly not so good with older Four Thirds Olympus lenses (that were designed for a DSLR using phase detect AF). If you do not need autofocus, you can use any Nikon lens on a Micro Four Thirds (or Sony NEX) camera using an adapter. It would be the same in a Nikon made mirrorless camera with Nikon F mount lenses. The AF would not be effective and the lenses are disproportionally large compared to the body. Olympus and Panasonic have already an excellent line of small prime lenses and many zooms for MFT, what would Nikon have to gain by entering this market with a new product? It makes some sense that they'd do it will a smaller sensor, so that the zooms can be made small (right now micro four thirds and NEX cameras are small only when a prime is used) and they would not directly compete with DX DSLRs. Just get an E-PL3 and a 12/2, 14/2.5, 20/1.7, and 45/1.7 and shoot street with those. Very small, autofocuses lightning fast, high optical quality (12/2, 20/1.7, and 45/1.7 at least) etc. What is missing is FX-like high ISO ... but you are not likely to get that in a small camera, whoever manufactures it. Sony currently has DX-size mirrorless cameras but I think they need to make more high quality lenses than they have right now. MFT is ahead in this respect.</p>

<p><em>Nikon is playing something like a Russian Roulette with our photographic needs and I personally think that it is counter productive. We definitely need to know an approximately calendar for D4, D800, D400 and for other products Nikon may consider to bring on the market</em></p>

<p>That kind of a calendar would be a suicide for Nikon. Nokia's CEO Steven Elop announced some time ago that their current phones are essentially crap and that a new lineup will be developed based on Windows Phone and it will be available in 1-2 years from now. Sales plummeted, stock price dropped below anything it has been in 13 years and few believe the company will come out of it. You do not announce products that are not yet available except if the situation is really desperate. As it is Nikon's high end DSLRs are highly competitive (for still photography) and there is no great emergency to pre-announce the development of products that cannot be made immediately or very soon available. Of course it would be useful to <em>you</em>, but it would be a catastrophe for Nikon. Please guys stop drooling after unnannounced future products and focus on how to make the cameras that are available now work for your photography. I've used my two FX cameras for 3 and 3.5 years now and they still serve me well. Technological progress has been fast in digital cameras in these years of infancy but the products are fairly mature now. New stuff will certainly come out from Nikon and others but it's really not worth being so worked up about. Notice that Canon hasn't announced any high-end DSLRs in a long time either. Without doubt the companies are busy making existing products and planning new ones, and they'll release them when they are ready. Not before. Nikon has a responsibility also for their shareholders, not just customers. And I would like to remind everyone that that group "shareholders" includes everyone who e.g. has a retirement plan and expects the saved funds to exist by the time you actually get to retire. If companies were reckless and made these pre-announcements and caused the shares to plummet, lots of people would suffer. (I am trying to talk generally here; I don't know if whoever holds your retirement funds has invested in Nikon ... but someone has, and their lives are at stake.)</p>

<p><em>Thom, despite his grumpiness, is a serious guy.</em></p>

<p>Then why does he spend so much time speculating about future products and second-guessing Nikon's decisions? If he were a serious guy he'd focus on important things such as practicing photography (and writing reviews if he must) instead of pointless speculation.</p>

<blockquote>

<p>Thom Hogan is no mere blogger. And he probably does know more about marketing than the collective Nikon marketing organization.</p>

</blockquote>

<p>Marc, think about it; if that were true, some large company would have hired Thom Hogan to be the CEO or at least the VP of marketing a long time ago and paid him lots of money. If Nikon is not interested in him, Nikon's competition should be. There is no reason that he is still writing blogs and guide books.</p>

<p>Hogan is just an armchair critic who does not need to be concerned about share holders, payroll, etc. He certainly does not need to deal with the direct impact of a major earthquake and tsunmi that seriously affected Nikon and many other Japanese manufacturers.</p>

<p>It is very easy to criticize when you don't have a whole lot on the line in case you are wrong. I really respect Hogan for his knowledge about Nikon equipment and his camera reviews, but his criticism on not only Nikon but also other camera brands is getting tiring, so are his incorrect predictions and rumors.</p>

<p>Ikka I totally agree with you. And I would add that I have the feeling that new product releases should slow down. The continuous upgrading mechanism can not be maintained forever. What do we expect? A D6 in 12 years with 1000AF points? In this global crisis situation I think economies have slow down and so will do the developments.</p>

<p>We will see what happens... </p>

<p>Two things:</p>

<p>1. Thom Hogan writes excellent equipment reviews and product field guides. He also blogs, engaging in entertaining speculation about Nikon and it's products.</p>

<p>The entry <em>The Strange September Situation</em> is clearly labeled "commentary." I would take it at its face value- entertaining speculation and commentary.</p>

<p>2. As to Nikon's announcement, the company was apparently disturbed about its stock rising on rumors of a mirrorless camera. I know nothing about the mechanics of the Japanese stock market or legal system; but one would assume Nikon's non-announcement-announcement was geared to head off potential problems with ill-informed, speculating, and ultimately disappointed investors.</p>

<blockquote>

<p>I mean, we are taking about multinational company with decades of successful management. Do a blogger knows more about market tendencies that Nikon marketing experts?</p>

</blockquote>

<p>Travel back in time 30 years. Substitute 'Eastman Kodak' for Nikon. No company is infallible or invulnerable.</p>

<p>Hihai ... possibly we are the few who see the NEX 7 mast tops on the horizon.</p>

<p>You can complain about Thom Hogan if you want but do you think the statement (if you can call it that) on Nikon's website was good from a marketing or public relations point of view? I think anyone here could have mumbled something more coherent in their sleep.</p>

<p>Walter, I do agree with that too. </p>

<p>I said about Thom Hogan that in this particular publication he made some thoughtful statements but, sometimes, he make some comments which are unrealistic. I mean, he is just a single man behind a computer and Nikon is a huge company which internal mechanisms are a mystery for mere humans. </p>

<p>For example, I am a physicist/meteorologist and every single person on the street thinks that knows more than me about the atmospheric dynamics just because they feel everyday the rain and cold. I think something similar is happening here.</p>

<p>Walt, if you are referring to this brief article on Nikon's web site:</p>

<blockquote>

<h1 >Comments on Media Reports about Nikon's imaging product</h1>

<p >September 9, 2011<br>

Nikon understands that some article appeared in the media regarding Nikon's <br />imaging product. Please note that Nikon has made no announcement in this <br />regards.</p>

</blockquote>

<p><a href="http://www.nikon.com/news/2011/0909_01.htm">http://www.nikon.com/news/2011/0909_01.htm</a></p>

<p>I think most people will agree that the statement is cryptic and confusing.</p>

<p>But at most, there is merely one little poorly written statement from Nikon. There are far far more errors on various Nikon web pages. Why spend so much energy on one little comment, which does not even offend anybody?</p>

<p>I can't speak for Nikon, but apparently that cryptic statement is in reaction to rumors that Nikon is introducing mirrorless cameras, and as a result, Nikon share prices had gone up 10% in 3 days. Only Nikon themselves know whether such rumor is true or not, and if it is not, most likely their share price will take a dive. I can see Nikon does not welcome such rumors at all. See this Reuters article for more info: <a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/09/09/nikon-idUSL3E7K83H820110909">http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/09/09/nikon-idUSL3E7K83H820110909</a></p>

<p>A couple of years ago, I mentioned to Nikon USA that I had proofread a few eBook Thom Hogan wrote, and Nikon made it very clear that they didn't like him because he spreads rumors.</p>

<p>Mihail, I too would like to join in and ask you to take a look at the m4/3 system. I have a Panasonic GH1. As Ilkka said, their pancake lenses are so small so lovely. The AF and AF tracking work very well and in many ways better than the AF system on my old D90. Indeed, if you compare the pictures from GH1 against even those from my good old D90, the D90 pictures have better DR, lower noise in the shadow, etc etc etc. However when I mix all the photos in iPhoto, I no longer notice these differences. Our eyes are drawn to the images themselves, and I could no longer tell which picture was taken with which camera.</p>

<p>I too think that it would be terrible for Nikon to tell us exactly what will come ahead which may kill the sale of current products. I guess the company that manages secret, or suspense, the best would be Apple. However, it is also quite common for a company to show "road map" or simply "leaks" products that are in various stages of development to keep some of its customers from jumping ship. </p>

<p>

<p><em>"I guess the company that manages secret, or suspense, the best would be Apple."</em><br>

 

<p> <br>

Is this the same Apple whose employees have repeatedly and famously left yet-to-be-announced iPhone products in bars? :>O</p>

</p>

</p>

 

<blockquote>

<p>Is this the same Apple whose employees have repeatedly and famously left yet-to-be-announced iPhone products in bars? :>O</p>

</blockquote>

<p>Yes it is. And the guy who left a not-yet-announced iPhone 4 prototype at a bar last year was fired a week later. I found out about that shortly after because the company I work for considered hiring him.</p>

<blockquote>

<p>was fired a week later.</p>

 

</blockquote>

<p>Interesting ... now we know that the "accident" was not staged by Apple for publicity sake.</p>