A Trend Underway? Selling Off M bodies ?

Perhaps we are at a juncture where there are a lot of people are selling off a

bit of equipment in anticipation of the M8/M Digital body.

 

It also appears that there are some very good values to be had if one is so

inclined.

 

With this said - what are your opinions so far as the future pricing of M Film

bodies?

 

Between my sons & I we have four M bodies & at least 10 lenses & have no plans

on buying an M digital as of now.

 

This is not an Anti-Digital rant as we also have a few digital bodies as well -

a D200/D100/20D along with numerous lenses.

 

My feeling is that the price of M bodies is going to suffer for about 6 months

or so & then pick up again after the buzz has worn off - as well as the new

people buying into the Leica M Digital will perhaps want to sample the film bodies.

 

Curious as to other's thoughts.

 

Regards to all

People who have never used Leicas or rangefinders are not going to pop $6000 into an M8

and lens just to try it out. Even the cheaper RD-1s alternative is over $2000. I have a

feeling Leica is just going from one small niche to an even smaller niche with the existing

film based fan club unless of course they come out with a sub $2000 high quality RF body

to attract new digital users.

There's been a lot of talk about switching (or not switching), but I haven't seen a noticeable increase in M bodies being sold on the big auction site compared to this time last year. On this site it seems there has been a renewed interest in the pre-M bodies in the last several months.

My predictions:

 

Non-metered "user" M bodies (M2, M3, M4, M4-2, M4-P) will continue to drop in price, but metered M film cameras (M6, MP, M7) will continue to hold their value (as long as there is film available to buy for them).

 

By the end of 2007 Leica M film cameras will be produced only through the a-la-carte program.

 

Leica's net income for 2007-2008 will slip into the black.

 

Approximately 20,000 digital Leica M cameras will be sold over the next 36-48 months (beyond 2006) before the market for them dries up.

 

By 2011 Leica will concentrate on high-end consumer digital products, microscopes, and binoculars. But the increasingly expensive a-la-cart program will continue for MP, M7, and M8 cameras.

 

There will never be a Leica "M9."

 

Beyond that, used metered M cameras will continue to hold their value as long as there is film available to buy for them.

What I've seen a lot of is next of kin selling off Leica gear. This is dark, sorta. The recent survey of how old we are showed a lot of us to be well over 50. It also means that the enthusiasm isn't necessarily passed down.

 

My prediction is that in a few years we will have the (ala Canon) M8D2nIIpn which will have a full frame sensor and newly perfected light bending technology to cloak the camera when street shooting.

Wow!...

"Approximately 20,000 digital Leica M cameras will be sold over the next 36-48 months"

 

In their dreams! I can't see them selling anywhere near that number.

<i>"In their dreams! I can't see them selling anywhere near that number."</i>

<p>The only reason for that would be that Leica won't be able to produce that many. The sales potential of the digital M in Japan alone is mind-boggling. I predict that the digital M will sell as fast as it can roll off the assembly line, with production struggling to meet demand for at least the first 2 years.

Map Camera here in Tokyo seems to have a lot more M bodies in their display cases than

before- There are usually half a dozen of those hammertone MPs for sale, and a few of those

recent Black Paint MP3s. What is interesting is going up 4 floors (of cameras) and seeing

clean Nikon F4 bodies for 5oo bucks, F5 bodies for 700 and up, and then half a dozen F6

bodies for 2 grand, just a little more than a clean black paint F or F2 Titan... Now would be

the time to get an F4- when I bought one in 2001 the scabbiest one there (which I took

home) was about 700 dollars.

<P>I think you guys don't quite understanding that there are two marketing sides of Leica : For the Collectors and for the Users.<p>They don't have to be mutually exclusive, and I am one of those.<br>On the collecting side, I have 30-40 (lost count...) M bodies ranging from M1 to M7. Then I have the users, they are the M3, M4 and the M7's.<P>On the collecting side, one of the rare M is worth US$ 100,000, the next one is worth US$ 85,000. Two of my R lenses are worth US$ 9,000 each. There is no logic to Leica prices, it all depends on rarity, thus the Leica Titanium M7.<P>The user side you all know and I don't need to explain.<P>So what I am saying is when you judge the future of Leica, one has to take into consideration the many and very different aspects of this name brand. It may be hard for some of you to understand...<P>Cheers.

I think I'm going to throw up.

Wow! Somebody finally admitted to being a collector.

 

I'd say there will be a good few more M bodies being sold for a while but these are only going to be from those ditching one film M body in prep for buying an M8. Then things will return to normal. I don't see why metered M's will do better than unmetered M's - I'd have thought the opposite. Digital for the modernists M3-M4's for the retroists. Having said all that the next-of-kin selloff theory is a good one too.

 

I for one am saving for an M8 but won't be ditching my M4-2 or CL to do it. I would sell off my old Pentax gear if only I gould get any more than pocket change for it.

 

As antique dealers say "Quality always appreciates" I think this is a universal fact and that Leica M prices will continue to hold or increase.

 

Probably.

I think we all need a dose of Al (the seltzer), here.

"On the collecting side, one of the rare M is worth US$ 100,000, the next one is worth US$ 85,000. Two of my R lenses are worth US$ 9,000 each. There is no logic to Leica prices, it all depends on rarity, thus the Leica Titanium M7."

 

Dump them now and cut your losses!

From what I see on E Bay and Christies etc is that the quality of bodies on offer are more or less "user". Due to fraud and misstatements people are wary of buying from E Bay untill the seller is very well known. High quality original bodies will hold their value and perhaps even escalate. Leica name for cameras will be like Rolex is today 10 years from now.

I bet there will be a dip in film body prices as the Digital M rolls out, but just a small drop.

I predict lots of photojournalists, backs aching from carrying around big Nikon and Canon

DSLRs will jump at the chance to run around with something smaller for everyday use.

Sure they'll still pull out the DSLRs for telephoto work, at sports events and big press

conferences and such, but Digital Ms will see lots of use in more intimate settings and war

zones etc.

 

I'd be surprised if the first model of Digital M didn't sell over 20,000 bodies, to be

followed by later models selling similar numbers every couple years. At some point Zeiss

will jump in with a full frame Digital Ikon and get some competition going. Meanwhile film

cameras from Leica and Zeiss will sell 2,000-3,000 units per year until 35mm film

becomes hard to get in the latter part of the 21st century.

 

Fun to speculate isn't it?

Not a lot of people are selling off a bit of equipment but almost all are selling their analog stuff. Dealers shelves are rightout flooded with so-called outdate obsolent gear.

The funny thing is that - provided new digital cameras continue to apear every other day - buying a new toy right now equals planned obsolenscence.

I'm with Rob.

In the mid late 1960's rangefinders were going way out of vogue, and camera collecting was rare and nil.<BR><BR> Many folks dumped their rangefinder gear for a modern slr. <BR><BR>It was not unusual for a neighbor to trade in their "obsolete" rangefinder, pay several hundred dollars and get a Miranda, Petri, Minolta, Konica slr kit with a token 135mm non brand tele, with a never ready case for the camera. <BR><BR>Sometimes your "trade in" allowed you to upgrade from the preset 135mm to an automatic diaphram Vivitar or Soligor!; with NO drop in the sale price.<BR><BR>In 1969 one could buy a used M series 50mm Summicron for 29 dollars, a dealer might give you 10 to 15 dollars for it in trade in on that new Miranda, maybe. <BR><BR><BR><BR><b>There was a HUGE glut of crap useless obsolete rangefinder gear, no Shutterbug yellow page rag yet, no ebay yet. The "turnover" in used "obsolete" gear was slow, an item might not get sold for a year or two.</b> <BR><BR>Used rangefinder gear was like a used 386 computer, an old aol disc, yesterdays newspaper, dead batteries, sour milk.<BR><BR> There was a used market for this rangefinder stuff thru Modern Photography, and Popular Photography's dealers ads, but the deep glut meant that only the stuff that had a decent value could command a line in an ad.<BR><BR>Some dealers in the midwest and NYC had an SASE service, one sent the dealer a wad of SASE envelopes (already stamped and addresed to you). The dealers ran a mimograph used sale sheet that they mailed you each month or so, listing the RF camera glut and other items.<BR><BR>In 1969 Wall St camera has a 50mm F2 Summar for 7 dollars, a 50mm F1.4 for Nikon RF/Contax for 23 dollars, as DR Summicron for 87 dollars, a 50mm F1.1 Nikkor for Nikon RF for 99 dollars, a Nikkor LTM 50mm F3.5 for 19.50, the 105mm F2.5 LTM Nikkor was 47 dollars. Olden had a Leica IIIf with F2 for 49 dollars, a Nikon S body was 28 dollars, a Leica IIIg body was 99 dollars, a Leica M3 with f3.5 elmar was 107.5 dollars<BR><BR>In Olden Camera in 1969, NEW modern Minolta SRT 101 with NEW 50mm F1.4 was 194.50. Take about 25 to 40 percent of the used prices above as what Olden would give as credit. Thus you brought in that obsolete IIIg body, and got maybe say 25 to 40 dollars credit in trade on that Minolta kit, say 33 bucks. Thus the Minolta kit was 161.50 dollars, with the 33 dollar trade in of the old Leica iiig body. <BR><BR>If the dealer was awash in the glut of his obsolete RF inventory, they maybe you might get 25 dollars or less, because the market was weak, thinly traded, and he is trying up money in a slow moving inventory item.

Rob, which rare M models do you have that are worth $ 100,000 or $ 85,000? There aren't too many M models worth that much. I can think of only a handful. Eliot

In their dreams! I can't see them selling anywhere near that number.

 

John, they will easily sell that number. The number of M6 cameras sold has many times exceeded 20,000. They will not sell as many M8s because of the high price, but it will easily exceed 20,000 with no sweat. BTW, 20,000 units x $ 5,000 USD per unit is $ 100 million (but over several years), which hopefully would be enough to recoup their R & D and manufacturing costs.

It was Sandy who had the collectibles, Eliot. I wish I had that kind of money to spend on gewgaws, but unfortunately I don't.

When Sandy is Rob there will be a $100K worth M camera.

Collecting has its ups and downs. When I was in Detroit in 1963 we sold a 1955 Chevy with about 2K miles for 150 bucks, the one defect it has was a dented front bumper, which dropped the cars worth by 100 bucks. We had to really work alot just to get the car sold for 150. A car like that in motown was considered so out of style, obsolete.<BR><BR>

I'm getting a bit confused.

 

I thought Another Bob was talking about his gold plated Tiger Skin Leica M3? The Tiger he personally shot while he was in India.

 

I doubt if a value could be put on such a priceless object.